minninni31 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Through 78, NAM is coming in colder at the surface and 850 MB. Pretty sharp 850 MB front across OK and KS. yes, the last run on NAM 84 is looking better for OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 84 hour 850 MB temps And composite precip: It generates snow over OK, but I'm not sure if this would be snow or ice (looking at the 850's) And that's some strong vert velocity @ 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looking at NAM extracted data... Joplin falls to around freezing at 78 and down to 30ish by 84... , NAM spits out 0.10 at 84. There is a big warm layer so I would say it would be freezing rain although it could be sleet. Tulsa is below freezing at 78 as well, with 0.25ish precip by 84. Warm layer between 750-850 MB. So freezing rain or sleet would probably occur there. OKC falls below freezing at 78ish as well.. 0.11 precip by 84. It also has a warm layer at 750-800 MB. It's pretty cold though so it may be sleet or snow. Looking at the extracted weather gives Tulsa Thundersleet! at 81, lol and freezing rain at 84. And shows OKC with Sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think JoMo said it right about the NAM. This is going to be and interesting few days. I am going to do a blog a little later tonight when I get home. I will give all of my latest thoughts then. Hope everyone is having a great Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Also remember everyone. The models are never right. You have to look at all of the different layers and say, well if this happened at 850 mb then it would or wouldn't do this at this level. A lot is going with your gut. You guys all seem pretty sharp, I love this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Also remember everyone. The models are never right. You have to look at all of the different layers and say, well if this happened at 850 mb then it would or wouldn't do this at this level. A lot is going with your gut. You guys all seem pretty sharp, I love this thread. I'm curious what the NAM would show at 90-96, if it keeps shifting the 850 MB front farther east or holds it stationary and sends the 850 MB low up it. Also since the NAM did go colder, it makes me curious if it would be colder than what is currently modeled since it's still 4 days out and that's a pretty stout 1056 MB high pushing into Montana at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS out to 84... 850 MB is colder across the area.. It's going to be farther south with the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Also remember everyone. The models are never right. You have to look at all of the different layers and say, well if this happened at 850 mb then it would or wouldn't do this at this level. A lot is going with your gut. You guys all seem pretty sharp, I love this thread. And because i cant read models for crap this is why i go with my gut feeling lol....its telling me this could be something major or nothing at all....its confused as much as the models lol. Maybe its all the food i ate tonight who knows! Seriously this does have the potential to really be nasty. Still to far out though. Is this the kinda storm that 30 miles north or south make all the difference again? Probly is what my gut says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS is trending colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS is trending colder Have to check other layers but based on 850 and surface temps. GFS would be a big hit for the 'four state area'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not cold enough for me.. Maybe 34 and rain instead of 35-37. lol GFS is trending colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Remember this is arctic working in. It will be very shallow and the models are terrible on arctic air. Plus we have north northeast winds during the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not cold enough for me.. Maybe 34 and rain instead of 35-37. lol I'd give it a few more runs for it to catch up. NAM has better thermal resolution so it should capture the cold air better. I'm thinking that big high to the north may allow more low level cold air to slip in than what's currently forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS putting down quite the QPF over the region this run... another run like this and consider me jumping on the bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS and NAN come with more cold than the last runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 The Kuchera snow map should be pretty colorful later. But this is the Twisterdata snow map: (still may be some flurries about) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Wow I've been away tonite and come home to a sweet run of the GFS. Right or wrong I still love it. Hopefully the NW trend is reversed and steadying out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 return back to 10 inches in Bartlesville, this is crazy we went from 2 or 3 to 10 or 12 in different run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM OKC. Not sure what happens there... 84 lots of precip N-W of the dotted line. 96 it's all pushed north and east of most of the area. And here's the GFS MEAN: 84: 96 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 WTF happened to the GGEM at h96 tonite? Its placement of the SLP looks more in line with the GFS but hardly any precip up in the cold air. Much weaker I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm really not sure what happened on the GGEM. 00z GFS Kuchera map: The regional ones have updated as well: http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 We're all aware how tricky it gets for the models to depict the timing of arctic air. Something else to watch will be how deep/far this storm is able to throw a warm tounge of air aloft wrapped around the low. Any underestimate of warm air aloft will greatly affect p-types and accums. This is getting exciting! Where can I see the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 We're all aware how tricky it gets for the models to depict the timing of arctic air. Something else to watch will be how deep/far this storm is able to throw a warm tounge of air aloft wrapped around the low. Any underestimate of warm air aloft will greatly affect p-types and accums. This is getting exciting! Where can I see the GGEM? Black and white ones are out, color ones come out later. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I call garbage on the GGEM tonite. On to the Euro. GGEM is garbage because I dont like it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 I call garbage on the GGEM tonite. On to the Euro. GGEM is garbage because I dont like it lol. Yeah 20 mins until the Euro starts. Here's to hoping it comes back south. I'm not sure what happens with the GGEM. You would think that precip over OK would lift NE or E at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I call garbage on the GGEM tonite. On to the Euro. GGEM is garbage because I dont like it lol. Yeah, not trying to make a comment, but it doesn't make any sense, considering what we've seen as a general model consensus so far. Outlier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If Euro stays wrapped up and NW then it washes away all of tonite's enthusiasm. I think we are seeing the GFS correct back closer to its solution from a day ago and maybe others are about to try and follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A lot of people like to bash the GFS (rightfully so sometimes), but it has been very consistent the past week or so with timing and placement for this system. I believe it started showing the potential in Oklahoma at 220 hours or so! Maybe it'll be the winning model for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I agree the GFS has had only minor variations the past few days when compared to the other globals. That said, would still like to have the Euro on its side for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I agree the GFS has had only minor variations the past few days when compared to the other globals. That said, would still like to have the Euro on its side for this one. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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