Wx 24/7 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Up and down... up and down... Riding all these models waves is dangerous. You have to watch the trends. And, to be honest, the trend isn't in our favor. We shall see what future models runs say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 yeah, the models tend to be honing in to a solution except the Euro. I really hope it's farther south or colder. Just makes me nervous because usually when models shift NW they never seem to come back in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 SGF seems much more concerned about the likelihood of a major winter weather event than the models would indicate. THE DEVELOPMENT...TRACK AND IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION WHERE THIS WINTER STORM OCCURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS PRIMARILY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECASTS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED AS NEW MODEL DATA IS RECEIVED. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...TRANSPORTATION DEPARTMENTS...MEDIA AND ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 yeah, a farther SE track or colder profiles and it's an ice/snow storm. It's still 4-5 days out. EDIT: The Euro Ensembles are farther south than the Euro operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I fully expect more changes sitting here 4 days out. Euro has been very inconsistent. GGEM not bad. GFS is trying to set a trend but we've seen it do this before at this range only to start a comeback the other direction. Hey at least we've still got the JMA and NoGaps in our favor lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z GFS may be trying to come in a bit colder/further south. Still looks more icy than snowy tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z GFS may be trying to come in a bit colder/further south. Still looks more icy than snowy tho. yeah. Stupid inverted trough setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Tulsa would be creamed with ice if the 18Z GFS verifies....which is going out on a massive limb, BTW, LOL. This thing may rev up after it's done with OKC, but I'll take 0.50-0.75" of QPF compared to what we've seen so far this winter. I have to keep my expectations tempered, esp. after the Christmas Eve blizzard last year. That was a rare event for the Southern Plains, indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshMO Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm going to discount the Euro for now. It's own ensemble members are farther south, the operational GFS and ensemble members are farther south. I think the position and strength of the 1058mb artic high just to the east of the Hudson Bay will play a huge factor in how (particularly where) the southwest trough ejects. I think the SLP tracks from Dallas to Little Rock to Cincinnati ( strengthening over Arkansas). Wide open Gulf of Mexico, powerful system that is strengthening as it moves through our area, plenty of cold air - I think Missouri gets the brunt of this system. Now the questions, is precip type and where the heaviest falls. Stay tuned. This will be a fun one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It's so beautiful outside! Hard to believe a major winter storm is on its' way. 75 outside right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Tulsa would be creamed with ice if the 18Z GFS verifies....which is going out on a massive limb, BTW, LOL. This thing may rev up after it's done with OKC, but I'll take 0.50-0.75" of QPF compared to what we've seen so far this winter. I have to keep my expectations tempered, esp. after the Christmas Eve blizzard last year. That was a rare event for the Southern Plains, indeed. Creamed with ice? 18z GFS BUFKIT shows they get mostly rain. 0.05" of freezing rain... 0.4" of snow. Even Joplin only gets a little snow. However, temps are really close like usual... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm going to discount the Euro for now. It's own ensemble members are farther south, the operational GFS and ensemble members are farther south. I think the position and strength of the 1058mb artic high just to the east of the Hudson Bay will play a huge factor in how (particularly where) the southwest trough ejects. I think the SLP tracks from Dallas to Little Rock to Cincinnati ( strengthening over Arkansas). Wide open Gulf of Mexico, powerful system that is strengthening as it moves through our area, plenty of cold air - I think Missouri gets the brunt of this system. Now the questions, is precip type and where the heaviest falls. Stay tuned. This will be a fun one to watch. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'll take some P002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This model show a lot more snow than others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 This model show a lot more snow than others It's the extended NAM and that's last nights run. This is todays run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well, thats why it looked soo good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 welp nothin for tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's the extended NAM and that's last nights run. This is todays run: I'll take a 150-mile SE trend of that please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Creamed with ice? 18z GFS BUFKIT shows they get mostly rain. 0.05" of freezing rain... 0.4" of snow. Even Joplin only gets a little snow. However, temps are really close like usual... My thinking is the timing of arctic air will be faster than what the GFS is showing. Do I have model output to support this opinion? No, just going off of similar scenarios in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This is a better one for Tulsa and Bartlesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 i never can find tulsa on those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 This is a better one for Tulsa and Bartlesville That's either ice if temps support it or rain. The blue line is the 0 degree line at 850 MB. Anything north and west of that is probably snow... anything east or south is rain or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 My thinking is the timing of arctic air will be faster than what the GFS is showing. Do I have model output to support this opinion? No, just going off of similar scenarios in the past. The models ALWAYS struggle with the shallow layer of cold air on the southern plains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 tulsa nws took the wintry precip. out for monday nite 60% rain and 38 ! correction 34 degrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Through 78, NAM is coming in colder at the surface and 850 MB. Pretty sharp 850 MB front across OK and KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 this storm makes me tired! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 wheres joplinmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 TWC has us in all ice and snow northwest! theyre going nuts on the ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 84 hour 850 MB temps And composite precip: It generates snow over OK, but I'm not sure if this would be snow or ice (looking at the 850's) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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