MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm still thinking the 11/30-12/1/06 storm. (Sorry Spot) But we may not have the temp profile to suppor that kind of snow. I'm hoping that HP to the north is stronger than being modeled and we are indeed colder top to bottom. I think we are staring down the barrell of a winter storm in this region, but the devil is in the details still for a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 NOGAPS is just a bit farther SE but it supports the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm hoping for a slide to the SE. WAA could be a killer for us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm hoping for a slide to the SE. WAA could be a killer for us here. Yeah this is looking like the typical I-44 NW thing that happens with Arctic airmasses not getting through the Ozarks until the system passes. Usually puts me in the ice with snow about 30-40 miles NW of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Living on or near the plateau can be a bad thing sometimes with regard to what you mentioned with the cold air struggling to advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS Ens 108 120: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like the GGEM gonna try and get outta hand on us again. Hope it's not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like the GGEM gonna try and get outta hand on us again. Hope it's not right. Looks like it's coming in line with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Maybe we'll get a quick transition here but am becoming more worried about ice based on today's runs. GGEM is quite juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Snow overlays for GFS updated. http://wxcaster.com/...ow-overlays.htm And the Cobb output looks pretty crazy for Joplin. http://www.meteor.ia...data/index.html Looks like you get mostly rain Moweather with a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Very much reminds me of.........: I'd take it. A blizzard would be preferable, but this is the next-best thing IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Thats just nuts. JLN showing 5.1 inches in 3 hrs after a lot of rain. Tot QPF over 2" for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Thats just nuts. JLN showing 5.1 inches in 3 hrs after a lot of rain. Tot QPF over 2" for the area. yeah and 0.55 of sleet. That's some thunderice to thundersnow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Still 4 days out so not holding my breath on anything yet. This yrs trend has been weaker and S as time draws closer so we'll see what happens this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Seems to be a lot of agreement with the surface low on the 12z individual GFS Ensembles but where the temp and QPF sets up varies a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Seems to be a lot of agreement with the surface low on the 12z individual GFS Ensembles but where the temp and QPF sets up varies a lot. Yeah we may be getting closer on a surface track but the temps are what I'm not convinced on for sure. Usually the track from SC TX over thru AR and up to W TN is excellent for us. Guess it all rides on that HP to our north and how well these models are picking up on the associated temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Very much reminds me of.........: Oh dont remind me of that ice storm jomo lol....and that was off some we got more ice then that in osceola. This is looking like either a huge ice event or snow event....ill take the snow plz i want nothing to do with an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro probably didn't help as it appears to be farther NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Please no ice please!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Please no ice please!!!!!!!!!!! Prolly mostly rain event if Euro is close to being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Prolly mostly rain event if Euro is close to being correct. no snow at all :*((((( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 no snow at all :*((((( Not on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I still see snow at 120 hr then more next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 I still see snow at 120 hr then more next weekend! Euro is warmer, and it's the Euro. GFS has been warming up each run. This is not going well right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Just hope for an oscillation back to weaker and south the next few runs or game over for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro is warmer, and it's the Euro. GFS has been warming up each run. This is not going well right now then why do i still see snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 then why do i still see snow? Because you aren't looking at the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Just hope for an oscillation back to weaker and south the next few runs or game over for most of us. Amazing how fast it can go from looking sweet to a washout or nothing lol...time and model runs will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Just hope for an oscillation back to weaker and south the next few runs or game over for most of us. yeah, the models tend to be honing in to a solution except the Euro. I really hope it's farther south or colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 HPC going with a blend and: PACIFIC RECON FLIGHTS REQUESTED INTO THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTY AREAAHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC. IF A FLIGHT IS AVAILABLETHIS DATA COULD GET INTO THE MODEL SYSTEMS BY THE RUNS OF SUNDAY00Z/12Z 30 JAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.