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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Winter 2011


JoMo

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hasnt ended up here yet though it looks to soon....what was you guys predicted to get and wound up getting total? those who understand the models somewhat which one was more accurate? seems like the nam nailed it for up this way once it got into its time frame...at least on totals it did anyhow

eh we prolly have 1-2" NAM ended up being more correct. It was wrong on temps though.

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eh we prolly have 1-2" NAM ended up being more correct. It was wrong on temps though.

yea the temps were off with it but it always seems to do decent man once it gets into its timeslot on totals....got just a tad over 3" here. Nam predicted 3-4.....not to bad and its really neat looking out there im happy for a lil lol. Im curious on these weekend systems now? I see springfield keeps on talking about them in the writeups....doesnt sound serious but i guess u never know

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Too early to really speculate on next weekend since all the models diverge somewhat. They all have a system, but whether it is rain, snow, or where it's located is a big unknown right now. Tonights GFS does have a weak storm and dumps the Arctic air back down but it wouldn't be here until next Monday. Arkansas would have a better chance at that one it looks like.

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Round 2 has been a real non-event and Round 1 was at most an inch. But it was still enough to close school and make it a pain to get around. I actually find this kind of crap snowfall rather irritating. Not enough to really do something with or dress up the countryside in an attractive way, but enough to make it a pain to drive the hilly untreated roads and take a bite out of business for a few days. I think I am growing more fond of the spring storm that provides a quick 5-10" and is gone in a few days.

OT - Did Oregon borrow those socks from a firehouse? No team could possibly win a title with that kind of color on their uniforms.

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12z has the weekend system missing us north and south again... sound familiar? :thumbsdown:

Meanwhile, the wind chill here is below zero. Glad I am inside today!!

yeah these weak waves are hard to time and with that Arctic air near here, they may be north or south of here. A couple of the GFS ensemble members do develop heavier precip near our area like P001, P009, P010 (see below). The GGEM has the 850 line north of us for most of the events. The Euro develops a stronger system on Day 6 (144) and keeps it developed. Looks like the track would be from NW TX east to NW Alabama.

f132.gif

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my NWS is showing frz rain this weekend.

They are going with the ECMWF of a faster frontal movement then light precip overriding it and causing freezing rain.

Also, talk about a change on the 18z GFS.... This is ice storm worthy long range that won't happen. Also so much for the big warm up it was showing in the extended yesterday.

gfs_slp_216s.gif

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