okie333 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 18z GFS is a great run for Oklahoma and Arkansas this run. Just for fun cause it's not gonna happen prolly I'll take it, but with a very slight north trend. Here's that 00z ensemble I was talking about earlier btw (look at the far bottom right member of each image): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 You wanted P10 right? The 18z still has a lot of spread, but there are more members pointing towards the OP. Of course it'll change in a few hours anyway as I don't think the models have a handle on this at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 You wanted P10 right? The 18z still has a lot of spread, but there are more members pointing towards the OP. Of course it'll change in a few hours anyway as I don't think the models have a handle on this at all. Yep. Here are some more maps (thicknesses support all snow north of I-40 for most members of the 18Z): QPF 00Z: QPF 18Z: I think I'll take the operational (mislabeled "C001") with a slight north trend or Perturbation 9 with a slight north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Yep. Here are some more maps (thicknesses support all snow north of I-40 for most members of the 18Z): QPF 00Z: QPF 18Z: I think I'll take the operational (mislabeled "C001") with a slight north trend or Perturbation 9 with a slight north trend. starting to worry. this looks like a nailing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I personally would take a compromise between the Euro and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 starting to worry. this looks like a nailing. Not at all. It may not even happen. Too many variables right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 starting to worry. this looks like a nailing. and that's a bad thing why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Not at all. It may not even happen. Too many variables right now. Still way too early. It will likely be mid-to-late weekend before we have strong idea of what will happen. Even then we will probably have some model spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 and that's a bad thing why? i wont have my daughter ill excuse her either way from school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 tulsa nws going with snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Anybody else having trouble with the NCEP site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 yeah appears to be having problems. I'm using ewall and it's out to 84. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Sounds like OKC/Tulsa gets hit hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 114 over on AccuWx. No big changes yet best I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 114 over on AccuWx. No big changes yet best I can remember. Slow on a lot of sites. If NCEP is in the northeast it may be due to all the heavy wet snow and power outages up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Modified Kuchera snowfall for the total time period 0-192 hrs on the 18Z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Modified Kuchera snowfall for the total time period 0-192 hrs on the 18Z GFS: Nice map, is that one you made? Sounds like the 00z GFS gets you pretty good down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Could be the great S Plains snowstorm I've been waiting on this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks to be pretty phased a h132. So far pretty similar to 18z to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Slow on a lot of sites. If NCEP is in the northeast it may be due to all the heavy wet snow and power outages up there. NOMADS (the GRIB file site) is missing quite a few files. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Nice map, is that one you made? Sounds like the 00z GFS gets you pretty good down there. One of over 60,000 generated daily using an automatic script a friend made (and this is on a virtualized Linux server... it does an entire GFS run with 15,000+ pictures in 30-40 minutes... could be a LOT faster if I did 400x300 instead of 800x600, leading me to believe the fill rate is the issue. I may try dual-booting sometime to test the speed without the virtualization... for now VPS hosting is beyond his reach... maybe in a month or two or eight). Sadly the script uses NOMADS, which is stuck at 54 on the 00z (for the hi-res files... I have many reasons to believe NCEP uses the medium-res ones instead for their maps) right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Wow looks like a pretty nice hit for most on here thru h150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0355Z THU JAN 27 2011 NCEP PRODUCTS ON THE INTERNET PROBLEM... NCEP IS EXPERIENCING A SEVERE NETWORK OUTAGE THAT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD HAS BEEN CAUSED BY THE STORM OF VERY HEAVY WET SNOW WIDESPREAD THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. NEW NCEP PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE AVBL ON THE INTERNET UFN. ETA IS UNKNOWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Think thats the first time I've ever seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 So how much for OKC/TUL/JLN/XNA (Fayetteville)/SGF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0355Z THU JAN 27 2011 NCEP PRODUCTS ON THE INTERNET PROBLEM... NCEP IS EXPERIENCING A SEVERE NETWORK OUTAGE THAT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD HAS BEEN CAUSED BY THE STORM OF VERY HEAVY WET SNOW WIDESPREAD THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. NEW NCEP PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE AVBL ON THE INTERNET UFN. ETA IS UNKNOWN. That explains the NCEP/NOMADS missing files... and with a supposedly favorable run too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Canadian looks a bit faster than the GFS with the system ejecting out at 120. It looks to be closed over Tx panhandle area on south while the GFS has it over the NM/AZ border area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Tulsa's gonna get buried.. Finally catching up to the GFS.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Tulsa's gonna get buried.. Finally catching up to the GFS.......... Links please? NOMADS is still stuck at 54h... probably due to the data outage NVM... IPS text output has it. OMG that's a lot... 1.64" QPF, at least 1.30" of which is snow. Another 0.60" QPF of snow hrs 336-372 (not to mention the constant flurries for the 2-3 days before that.. sadly there's a "warmup" to the upper 30s / lower 40s between the two)... Definitely a keeper run by all means. EDIT: Throughout the run it's pretty much 1"+/hr with 20+mph winds (it goes down to 0.6"/hr or so for 6 of the hours... one of the 3-hr sections has ~1.2"/hr for three hours straight with 25mph wind)... one slight change of the low strength and a certain reddish hue may need to be added to the maps during the system. I'll see what it shows up with when I generate the maps tomorrow after NOMADS goes back up... probably sometime tomorrow afternoon I'll do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Links please? NOMADS is still stuck at 54h... probably due to the data outage. http://www.twisterdata.com is out to 150. It's REALLY cold when this falls so probably ratio++ and I think it's still falling after this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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