JoMo Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 And boy is the GFS different tonight.... No cold air, no storm to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 And boy is the GFS different tonight.... No cold air, no storm to speak of. oh its a total tease!! i hate it! its stood us up at the prom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i just want to say that i am very jealous of my sister in tennessee that is all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Euro is much much different. Seems like most of the precip falls N of here and it has more of a 'Lakes Cutter' storm vs the GFS which doesn't have much storm at all and slides to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 12z GFS more changes once again. Appears to be headed more toward the way of the Euro - less suppression and more overrunning type precip in this region but still no big storm. Stay tuned.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'll take some Perturbation 10 on today's 00Z GFS Ensembles, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks like the GGEM isn't following the GFS this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yeah GGEM going a diff route again. Guess we'll have to wait and see what the Euro has to say about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ok i have to laugh the tennessee storm is a total bust. my nws is still going with a mix next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'll take some Perturbation 10 on today's 00Z GFS Ensembles, please. i'll see your pertubation and raise you a wintry mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 From what I can tell, Euro surface low takes a track from TX/AR/LA border to NE Arkansas to Evansville, IN this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 the 168hr looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 the 168hr looks interesting. of what model? and why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Euro path looks good days 6-7 here. I'll check the extracted data here in a sec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Euro path looks good days 6-7 here. I'll check the extracted data here in a sec. Looks to have the 850 way up north though.. over N Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks to have the 850 way up north though.. over N Missouri. Bisects the state day 6. Looks ok here but dont know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Bisects the state day 6. Looks ok here but dont know for sure. Ah, I should have clarified, the 850 MB low is what I meant. 192 looks really frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 May be a mix to snow scenario like it was showing a couple of days ago. JLN total precip .38 with about .25 of that falling after thickness and temps appear to support snow - by 6z Tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ah, I should have clarified, the 850 MB low is what I meant. 192 looks really frigid. OK yeah I should have picked up on that. Looks very cold indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 May be a mix to snow scenario like it was showing a couple of days ago. JLN total precip .38 with about .25 of that falling after thickness and temps appear to support snow - by 6z Tue yeah the best precip looks like it's with that 850 MB low up north. What a difference between the GFS, GGEM and Euro though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 yeah the best precip looks like it's with that 850 MB low up north. What a difference between the GFS, GGEM and Euro though. Yeah gonna look at the Euro data for KC and STL and see what it shows there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 KC shows about .55 all snow and STL tot precip around .70 but only about half of that when temps look cold enough. Need a little more artic air in here to get us in real good shape. Would be another monster for C MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 KC shows about .55 all snow and STL tot precip around .70 but only about half of that when temps look cold enough. Need a little more artic air in here to get us in real good shape. Would be another monster for C MO yeah I think Iowa would see the best hit being NW of that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HWO out of SGF this afternoon. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS AIR MASS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE OR TIMING OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 SGF starting to talk it up a bit: THE 12Z GFS HAS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OZARKS MONDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING SOUTHWEST MOISTURE ALOFT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE DEEPER COLD AIR COLUMN ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE STORM SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVING. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A COLD RAIN ON MONDAY WITH CHANGING OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY WOULD SUGGEST SOME KIND OF WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. HAVE LEANED ON THE ARCTIC FRONT AND AIRMASS ARRIVING MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACCORDING TO THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. WAY TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY WHAT PRECIP TYPES AND HOW MUCH THE AREA MAY RECEIVE AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE UPCOMING MODEL TRENDS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY COLD WEATHER MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING AND OVER NIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AT LEAST. ECMWF FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES ARE IMPRESSIVELY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH 100MB-500BM THICKNESS VALUES DOWN TO 500M. THIS WOULD SUGGEST WE COULD BE EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IF THAT PANS OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 of what model? and why? GFS showing snow on wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Tulsa not going with the frigid temps at all highs in the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 18z GFS is a great run for Oklahoma and Arkansas this run. Just for fun cause it's not gonna happen prolly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yeah more phasing this run which is a good sign I would think. Getting closer to the Euro but still south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
springfieldnewsnut Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow — Arkansas has been getting lucky this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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