Wx 24/7 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So, I'm thinking the four different disturbances that are supposed to pass through the Ozarks region over the next week won't amount to much at all. It seems like it'll be too dry to me. Thoughts? While I think none of the aforementioned disturbances mentioned by the NWS have the ability (or the moisture) to dump the motherload on us, I believe they each have the potential to produce some light snow. Every once in a while a clipper will overperform, and thus, has the potential to put down a bit more moisture than expected. That is why each individual wave has to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 I remember when the long range GFS showed warming all the way up into Canada. Now it's just really really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 A tripod and a longer exposure should do the trick. Yea i got and can do both. Longer exposures during the daylight are hard though unless you typically have an nd filter which im gonna be ordering shortly. With one of those filters you can get some wicked water and snow shots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I remember when the long range GFS showed warming all the way up into Canada. Now it's just really really cold. It has been a fairly cold but dry winter. 4 disturbances and nws says maybe up to 3/4 of an inch tonight here and then sunday timeframe another couple inches maybe....like someone else said earlier it seems like 4 chances most of them not producing much but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 It has been a fairly cold but dry winter. 4 disturbances and nws says maybe up to 3/4 of an inch tonight here and then sunday timeframe another couple inches maybe....like someone else said earlier it seems like 4 chances most of them not producing much but you never know. well out of everyone here, you have the best chance (except maybe backdoorfront who I believe is in N Missouri) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 well out of everyone here, you have the best chance (except maybe backdoorfront who I believe is in N Missouri) Yea it seems the further north you go the better the chance. Went to clinton last night(where we lived 2 years ago lol) and they had about 7" up there on the ground still! I think backdoor was in ashland i cant remember now....they been getting it pretty darn good up that way to. Then our friend in kc has been getting alot as well. I really love the scenery and all down this way but if I had my choice when we move again it would be back to kc cause i really miss it there the most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Had a quick snow flurry here but it stopped quick....girlfriend said its snowing heavy in lowry city about 20 miles north of where im at here at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Had a quick snow flurry here but it stopped quick....girlfriend said its snowing heavy in lowry city about 20 miles north of where im at here at home yeah Sedalia is reporting mod snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yeah Sedalia is reporting mod snow. Looks like a moderate band from north to south moving west to east almost.....i told her not to worry it dont look like it will last long to me....sucker is moving quick it seems! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yes i got my hopes up it snowed briefly at tulsa airport nothin in jenks what a tease! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yes i got my hopes up it snowed briefly at tulsa airport nothin in jenks what a tease! I know lol....it seems like even a mile can make a difference with a storm out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yea saw this earlier....not looking to bad if the temps coop...hopefully keep that mix crap away i hate zr lol....will wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow... dead in here tonight. I was looking at the models and it appears that the temps are going to be so borderline with this event. What are our "in house" experts thinking about Sunday's system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Morning all! tulsa nws is going with 20% frz drizzle tonite and tomorrow. Should have melting today getting in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backdoorfront Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Both KC and STL say 3 to 5" for that marked area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 they have all the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well I gotta admit I'm just not feeling anything for most of us with this next system, except for maybe Backdoorfront. That area looks to be in good shape for a light snowfall. These clippers dont clip us this far west most of the time. Case in point is last Thursday's system. That was basically a 2-part system. The first part was a true northern wave (similar to this next one) that hit mostly areas to our north (albeit that one was fairly strong) and part 2, which some of us benefited from, was a system that originated over the S Rockies and moved basically E-W in a different flow. The Euro is not very excited about tomorrow's wave and is kinda in the same camp as the NAM. The 12z GFS now looks drier for this immediate region (SW MO, OK, AR), as does the new RGEM this morning. Bottom line is I think most of us are on the sidelines for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 just saw a truck slide down my hill that always cracks me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well I gotta admit I'm just not feeling anything for most of us with this next system, except for maybe Backdoorfront. That area looks to be in good shape for a light snowfall. These clippers dont clip us this far west most of the time. Case in point is last Thursday's system. That was basically a 2-part system. The first part was a true northern wave (similar to this next one) that hit mostly areas to our north (albeit that one was fairly strong) and part 2, which some of us benefited from, was a system that originated over the S Rockies and moved basically E-W in a different flow. The Euro is not very excited about tomorrow's wave and is kinda in the same camp as the NAM. The 12z GFS now looks drier for this immediate region (SW MO, OK, AR), as does the new RGEM this morning. Bottom line is I think most of us are on the sidelines for this one. i think were on the sideline the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well I gotta admit I'm just not feeling anything for most of us with this next system, except for maybe Backdoorfront. That area looks to be in good shape for a light snowfall. These clippers dont clip us this far west most of the time. Case in point is last Thursday's system. That was basically a 2-part system. The first part was a true northern wave (similar to this next one) that hit mostly areas to our north (albeit that one was fairly strong) and part 2, which some of us benefited from, was a system that originated over the S Rockies and moved basically E-W in a different flow. The Euro is not very excited about tomorrow's wave and is kinda in the same camp as the NAM. The 12z GFS now looks drier for this immediate region (SW MO, OK, AR), as does the new RGEM this morning. Bottom line is I think most of us are on the sidelines for this one. Yea man not feeling it either with the next one. The models have springfield scratching their heads. Winter weather advisory begins 7 miles north of me in collins. I just dont have that feeling this time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i think were on the sideline the rest of the winter. I think there's at least one more good storm this winter that is gonna nail the southern plains region (OK, N TX). Prolly not in the near future but later on in Feb. Seems nina winters always come up with a couple of good ones for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well if it is going to be boring weather wise, we need some warmer temps. This dry NW flow really irritates me. LOL I hope we get a pattern shift by spring or severe weather season will be slow, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backdoorfront Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We'll see. Local Columbia station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think there's at least one more good storm this winter that is gonna nail the southern plains region (OK, N TX). Prolly not in the near future but later on in Feb. Seems nina winters always come up with a couple of good ones for that area. I think it's possible. I hope we can get something other than positive tilt troughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well if it is going to be boring weather wise, we need some warmer temps. This dry NW flow really irritates me. LOL I hope we get a pattern shift by spring or severe weather season will be slow, too. I dunno, seems like La Nina severe weather seasons can be explosive due to the amped up jet digging south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I dunno, seems like La Nina severe weather seasons can be explosive due to the amped up jet digging south Some of the biggest tornado outbreaks in history have occurred during a Nina or coming off of a Nina winter. I think there's at least some evidence that the geographically favored areas tend to shift. One thing that will be interesting to watch is the amount of blocking and polar penetrations into the Gulf. This likely played a role in the slow start to last year's severe season on a national basis but it's too early to say how much of an issue that could be this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 tulsas severe season was explosive we had several PDSs those are way scary we had quite the seaso so much so i got a new wx radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think there's at least one more good storm this winter that is gonna nail the southern plains region (OK, N TX). Prolly not in the near future but later on in Feb. Seems nina winters always come up with a couple of good ones for that area. do you know for 2 yrs in a row my daughters bday which is 3.31 we have been nailed with snow not a day i want to be nailed lets make it next month. March snows are so heavy i lost half a tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Gonna be kind of close with temps and freezing drizzle in MO at least. That stuff can get nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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