MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Picking up a few flakes here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backdoorfront Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Watching the radar much of the evening and it seemed the heaviest bands were south of I-70. I live right about at the point of the purple band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The lift is there. My concerns are this is such a fast moving wave that when it really gets going it is done. My other concern is how fast will this fill in across NE OK, NW AR, extreme SE KS and SW MO. I am affraid we may only have a few hours of decent snows. That is why I dropped down from 3-5 to 2-4. I won't sleep much tonight. I will blog most of the night and be on here. Lets cross our fingers guys. Doug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 And just like that... a nice little dusting on the deck. We need a few more of these bands. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 The lift is there. My concerns are this is such a fast moving wave that when it really gets going it is done. My other concern is how fast will this fill in across NE OK, NW AR, extreme SE KS and SW MO. I am affraid we may only have a few hours of decent snows. That is why I dropped down from 3-5 to 2-4. I won't sleep much tonight. I will blog most of the night and be on here. Lets cross our fingers guys. Doug I've been looking at the satellite and the clouds appear to be cooling to our north a bit, but out across west OK and KS there's been some warming. Did some dry air work into the system from the southwest or something? I mean it looks like the stuff over OK wants to get going, the HRRR says it does. The RUC says it does but so far, not too impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 JoMo, the precip out west is really waiting for the upper level 500mb wave to kick in. It is still a few hours from pushing into OK. That should really kick around 2am. Until then I think it will be very scattered. However, on the flip side, the ratios are up to about 15:1. That means all we need is about .20" of liquid and we have 3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 See the batch just SE of Dodge. That batch is moving east and I hoping it is the filler batch and fills this all in over the next few hours. We are in the part of the storm that you can through the GFS and NAM out the window. I use the RUC and radar trends from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I've been looking at the satellite and the clouds appear to be cooling to our north a bit, but out across west OK and KS there's been some warming. Did some dry air work into the system from the southwest or something? I mean it looks like the stuff over OK wants to get going, the HRRR says it does. The RUC says it does but so far, not too impressive. Yea it just doesnt look mega impressive down this way.....i think my saving grace was with those heavier bands earlier today. If it wasnt for them id probly have a dusting thats it. Got about 3.5" on the ground here now maybe a tad more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN HALF OF OK CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 200450Z - 200915Z A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/SOME SLEET WILL YIELD TO INCREASING/EASTWARD EXPANDING SNOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OK. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OK OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH AN INITIAL BOUT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...03Z RUC/00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY IMPLY AN INITIAL MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/SOME SLEET. OF NOTE...A BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY EVOLVING ACROSS WESTERN OK...EVIDENCED BY SOME CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING IN DEWEY COUNTY OK AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS DEDUCED FROM RUC SOUNDINGS...WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF SLEET AS ICE IS INTRODUCED ALOFT. OTHERWISE...SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE PREVALENT/EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH BOUTS OF MODERATE SNOW BECOMING MORE PROBABLE TOWARD 08Z-10Z AND BEYOND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 So cloud to ground lightning out of that band. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 See the batch just SE of Dodge. That batch is moving east and I hoping it is the filler batch and fills this all in over the next few hours. We are in the part of the storm that you can through the GFS and NAM out the window. I use the RUC and radar trends from here on out. yeah I hope so too, 04z RUC wants to expand the stuff currently over OK and it does look like a pretty quick hitter. Maybe 6 hours or so of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just did a blog, I will post it here in a second. I kept the amounts the same, and I am hoping I can raise them later, we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It looks like that E-W band from Tulsa on west is trying to expand N ever so slowly and hopefully merge up with the snow coming across KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's 25 degrees, the road looks like a sheet of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just did a blog, I will post it here in a second. I kept the amounts the same, and I am hoping I can raise them later, we will see. Just read it http://www.fox14tv.com/Global/story.asp?S=13873998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hell, went to start my car. Bit it hard, it is a sheet of ice with a heavy drizzle. My back!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hell, went to start my car. Bit it hard, it is a sheet of ice with a heavy drizzle. My back!!!!! Ouch. are you ok? Time to file some workman's comp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just did a blog, I will post it here in a second. I kept the amounts the same, and I am hoping I can raise them later, we will see. Great blog doug.....its nice that you do this to keep people informed! Its also easy reading for people like me that cant even remember time frames on models lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ouch. are you ok? Time to file some workman's comp Yep, I am only 32 so I pop right back up. But 32 does mean I will feel it tomorrow, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hell, went to start my car. Bit it hard, it is a sheet of ice with a heavy drizzle. My back!!!!! be careful man that ice can be nasty! this happened to me last year on black ice....didnt feel good either and smacked my head pretty hard.....hmmm maybe thats why i cant remember anything from 5 minutes ago haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 It looks like that E-W band from Tulsa on west is trying to expand N ever so slowly and hopefully merge up with the snow coming across KS. yeah it's slowly expanding north. Some more development near Wichita. Are you all getting the freezing drizzle in Monett yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yeah it's slowly expanding north. Some more development near Wichita. Are you all getting the freezing drizzle in Monett yet? Not yet. Just a quick burst of snow earlier and that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You guys' obs in here, are way different than what radar is showing. Switch from snow, or hasnt switched to snow yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 05 RUC didn't pick up on the stuff across N Central or NE OK on initialization. It does expand the snow over N OK more and moves it generally NE. It's light snow in that band it looks like based on reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 You guys' obs in here, are way different than what radar is showing. Switch from snow, or hasnt switched to snow yet? Lacking cloud ice = heavy freezing drizzle. There is cloud ice with that first batch but we are in between systems right now so we switched to drizzle until the system kicks out of the Rockies. This is causing precip to increase over OK and KS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Lacking cloud ice = heavy freezing drizzle. There is cloud ice with that first batch but we are in between systems right now so we switched to drizzle until the system kicks out of the Rockies. This is causing precip to increase over OK and KS right now. Yea, went to hi res radar, and see the drizzle on radar in OKC, how much snow did you get with part 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yea, went to hi res radar, and see the drizzle on radar in OKC, how much snow did you get with part 1? 0 It was north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow.. just glancing at new Euro QPF and it has really dropped off - around .15 for SGF and .10 for JLN. .18 for TUL and .22 for FYV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow.. just glancing at new Euro QPF and it has really dropped off - around .15 for SGF and .10 for JLN. .18 for TUL and .22 for FYV. yeah hmm, is it out to system 2 yet? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yeah hmm, is it out to system 2 yet? lol Not quite. Have that in a few. Grasping here I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.