gusfront Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 why screwed are we talking ice here guys like the 2007 winter or what here in swmo ????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I for one am not buying it. This model has yet to latch onto and stick with a similar solution for more than 2-3 runs in a row all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 I for one am not buying it. This model has yet to latch onto and stick with a similar solution for more than 2-3 runs in a row all week. yeah, even the RUC can't make up it's mind. 00z run was drier, 01z run brought the precip back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 why screwed are we talking ice here guys like the 2007 winter or what here in swmo ????????? No ice just less precip per the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I for one am not buying it. This model has yet to latch onto and stick with a similar solution for more than 2-3 runs in a row all week. The rapid-update models are flailing all over the place right now, too. Just the past 2-3 hours worth of RUC and HRRR runs alone present enough scenarios to drive an operational forecaster up the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The Euro has been locked in on this wave all week and consistently shows a very respectable snow for most everybody on here, most of it falling from midnite till noon tomorrow. It nailed our system last week and I think it does the same with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The Euro has been locked in on this wave all week and consistently shows a very respectable snow for most everybody on here, most of it falling from midnite till noon tomorrow. It nailed our system last week and I think it does the same with this one. I like the optimism! Additionally, we seem to be breaking out some precip in NE OK on the last few radar frames, which I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I like the optimism! Additionally, we seem to be breaking out some precip in NE OK on the last few radar frames, which I like. Thank you 247. Kinda strange coming from me huh?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 No ice just less precip per the NAM. Yea noticed this also but just didnt bother saying anything cause i thought i was lookin at it wrong. Does show less though for sure. Gfs still looks the same to me idk. Just gotta watch the trends now as the night goes on. It just seems to be also slower as well who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yea noticed this also but just didnt bother saying anything cause i thought i was lookin at it wrong. Does show less though for sure. Gfs still looks the same to me idk. Just gotta watch the trends now as the night goes on. It just seems to be also slower as well who knows? gfs doesn't come out for another hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 gfs doesn't come out for another hour guess i was looking at the old data see lol.....i get lost with the updates on crap. Thats why i leave it to you guys with better memories then myself lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Doug has decreased his amounts. 2-4" now.... 1-3" in SE KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Doug has decreased his amounts. 2-4" now.... 1-3" in SE KS. He give a reason why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 He give a reason why? Nope, other than it's fast moving. GFS has cut down on totals as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nope, other than it's fast moving. GFS has cut down on totals as well. Just noticed that. Throw it out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 All of the new models coming in with less precip and it appears SGF has taken up some of their totals by a little bit in their latest zone forecast package. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I LIKE THIS AMOUNT OF SNOW BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY IN BARTLESVILLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I know... SGF now has 3-6" for Monett... ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 All of the new models coming in with less precip and it appears SGF has taken up some of their totals by a little bit in their latest zone forecast package. Go figure. This may explain the uptick in some of their expected totals over SW MO. HAVE STARTED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. 00Z NAM/RUC ARE INDICATING A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING ON THE 295 K SURFACE BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE STARTING TO REFLECT THIS. UPGLIDE ALSO CONTINUES BELOW THIS LEVEL. HAVE GOTTEN MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING AS CLOUD ICE HAS BECOME SCARCE. HARD TO SEE THIS ON IR SATELLITE...BUT MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND RAOB DATA DO LATCH ONTO THIS. AM THEREFORE EXPECTING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN EVENT FOR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IS STILL EXPECTED FROM VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 And the TV mets start clawing away at the totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 And the TV mets start clawing away at the totals... I didnt catch any of the openings. So they are cutting now, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 yep and more snow Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ron is 1-3", Jill has 2-5" still, and Doug has 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Roads are looking kind of icey, it's freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Roads are looking kind of icey, it's freezing drizzle. crazy...snowing lightly here again but its just off and on again stuff. Was sleeting a bit earlier but didnt last to long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Lighty on KSPR saying around 2-3 now for I-44 corridor. Keller saying Sunday is starting to look more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NW Ark mets saying 3-5" and 4-6" depending on which channel. NBC local met says the NAM is "hogwash". He didn't change his totals from 6 PM. He says looking at the water vapor imagery and satellite is "very impressive" and the storm is intensifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I read the last two pages to get caught up. Let me finish the news here and I will give you my thoughts. Doug Heady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Starting to light up in western KS and western OK. That almost looks convective in nature in west OK. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1004 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011 .UPDATE... HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN LAYING OUT A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS W TO E ACROSS N OK OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. RUNS PRIOR TO 00Z HELD THIS BAND IN PLACE FROM JUST S OF GAG AND ENID TO NEAR AND JUST N OF SWO... WITH MAX ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY OVER 4 INCHES AND OCCASIONALY NEAR 8 AROUND PERRY. LAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON AMOUNTS AND HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW SLIGHTLY SOUTH. 01Z RUN HAS IT A LITTLE N OF I-40. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS OR WHETHER TO BELIEVE IT AT ALL... BUT RECENT RUC13 RUNS SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS AND A STRIPE OF MOSTLY 1-3 INCHES JUST N OF I-40. NAM12 ALSO HAS A HEAVIER BAND BUT IS FARTHER N. ONSET OF PRECIP IN NW OK AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS OF INTENSIFYING ECHOES IN A NARROW BAND MAY BE THE FIRST SIGN. SEEMS A GOOD CHANCE THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE NORTH OF I-40... BUT WITH UNCERTAINTIES ON THE PRECISE LOCATION WE WILL NOT GET TOO FANCY YET AND KEEP THE ADVISORY AS IS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Totally different attitude up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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