JoMo Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Tulsa updated their maps again. Looks like 3.9 for Tulsa. Also the HRRR is suggesting some banding goin on: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That wasn't a very 'sure of themselves' discussion from Springfield this afternoon. No they sound confused....I dont like bashing but I listen to you guys and myself more then them lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That wasn't a very 'sure of themselves' discussion from Springfield this afternoon. Agree 100%. Range of QPF from .20-.45 yielding 2-5 inches with an unknown snow ratio. Get ready anything may happen in your neighborhood tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Much better disco out of Tulsa. More convincing at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acorntree Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 We have light snow in Conway in sw Laclede Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Really coming down here visibilities are bad i cant even see the highway and its probly 600 feet or so away. Looks like 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch on the ground allready to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Really coming down here visibilities are bad i cant even see the highway and its probly 600 feet or so away. Looks like 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch on the ground allready to yeah there is some pretty heavy stuff developing on radar up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 yeah there is some pretty heavy stuff developing on radar up that way. Yea its really cool to see.....this is a heavy fluffy snow type. Flakes are pretty big to. Just went out with the dog as she was crying to go play in it and does look to be around 3/4 of an inch allready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Ok valerie asks for pics heres a few from the last storm we got....the second link is to all my pics from over the years(bottom right it says subfolder thats all of them) Jan 10th Snow All my pics very nice pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 pretty decent up here...hope you guys cash in too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 *tapping fingers* impatiently waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Doug is going 3-6" across most of the area, says it depends on where the bands set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Any new opinions on the start time for this? Our local news in NWA is saying somewhere around 3 AM with the heaviest snow after 7 AM. They are going with 4-7 inches in NW AR and extreme SW Mo with a quick transition from sleet to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Got about 2.5" from that first round and it was pretty heavy for most of the few hours iit snowed. I hope thats not it though cause it has ended now for the most part and is just flurrying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Got about 2.5" from that first round and it was pretty heavy for most of the few hours iit snowed. I hope thats not it though cause it has ended now for the most part and is just flurrying Don't be stingey... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 543 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011 .UPDATE... HAVE ADDED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BACK TOWARDS WICHITA EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE CLOUD ICE HAS BECOME DORMANT. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A SLUG OF DRIER AIR IN THE -10 TO -20 CELSIUS LAYER WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI BY MID EVENING. ALTHOUGH ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINOR...IT WILL HAVE ADDED CONSEQUENCES TO ROAD CONDITIONS AND TRAVEL. THE SNOW FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL LIKELY SEE SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS THAT BAND EXITS CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT...A NEW BAND WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Decent U/L feature heading in from AZ, tonight. Nice to see folks that have been lacking building a bit of a snowpack for a change. The pattern is looking good for you folks. Enjoy and send some further S... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 543 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011 .UPDATE... HAVE ADDED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BACK TOWARDS WICHITA EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE CLOUD ICE HAS BECOME DORMANT. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A SLUG OF DRIER AIR IN THE -10 TO -20 CELSIUS LAYER WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI BY MID EVENING. ALTHOUGH ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINOR...IT WILL HAVE ADDED CONSEQUENCES TO ROAD CONDITIONS AND TRAVEL. THE SNOW FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL LIKELY SEE SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS THAT BAND EXITS CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT...A NEW BAND WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. I can confirm the freezing drizzle that's falling here in Wichita. Round 2 (for most of you on here...) looks to be developing along the slopes of the Rockies and into W Kansas. It will be very interesting to see where exactly that band of heaviest snow sets up and its entirely plausible that WFO's ICT and SGF issue a winter storm warning for areas east and south of I-35 if/when that band becomes established. My guess is that there will be a sharp cutoff of accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 I can confirm the freezing drizzle that's falling here in Wichita. Round 2 (for most of you on here...) looks to be developing along the slopes of the Rockies and into W Kansas. It will be very interesting to see where exactly that band of heaviest snow sets up and its entirely plausible that WFO's ICT and SGF issue a winter storm warning for areas east and south of I-35 if/when that band becomes established. My guess is that there will be a sharp cutoff of accumulations. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 611 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011 .UPDATE... DESPITE THE COLD AIR BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE UPDATED TO EXPAND THE REGIONS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 03Z. SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE LAYER IS NOT COMING TO FRUITION...AS OF YET...AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS AND EXPOSED SURFACES WILL BE BETWEEN A TRACE AND 0.25 INCHES. SNOW IS PRESENT ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND BRINGING ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. DO EXPECT THE LAYER TO SATURATE...AND COOL SUCH THAT ICE CRYSTALS WILL FORM AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP PAST 03Z. DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW FALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HINDERED. CONTINUE TO FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE LARGER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. DID UPDATE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT/WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLDER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED SOUTH AND IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE TEMPS AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Don't be stingey... LOL Not being stingey lol....was just weird to see that much snow fall when it wasnt even predicted during that time phrase. The forecast said 50 percent chance of snow lol....was just weird like these storms sometimes are. Whats it doing down that way anything? Nothing here at the moment but the radar is lit up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 HRRR wants to develop a squall line across the area in a few hours, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 HRRR wants to develop a squall line across the area in a few hours, lol Can you post the link to the image? Would love to see it! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Can you post the link to the image? Would love to see it! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The HRRR really did a nice job picking up the banding with last week's wintery weather. It will be interesting to watch it evolve. That reflectivity it is predicting in OK is unreal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I am thinking that area of enhanced precip in NC OK on the HRRR will likely be an area of moderate mixed precip (possibly freezing rain). Temps in that area are a couple degrees either side of freezing and the arctic air is shallow in that region with 850 mb ranging from 0 to +4 degrees Celsius. Of course, that is all contingent on the upper system making a move to the east sometime soon. Is it me or does it seem to be slower than advertised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 200125Z - 200500Z BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH REPORTED SNOWFALL RATES TO AROUND 1 IN/HR WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN CNTRL MO. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMS A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CENTERED ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR NEAR TO JUST E OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA...WITH REPORTED RATES OF 1 IN/HR /REF KMCI/. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES APPEAR TO BE AT OR NEAR PEAK GIVEN THE CESSATION OF IR CLOUD TOP COOLING...ALONG WITH HIGH CONSISTENCY AMONGST AFTERNOON MODEL GUIDANCE OF DIMINISHING QPF WITH TIME THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH FORECAST WEAKENING OF 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW/MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. 21Z SREF PROBABILITY MATCHED 3-HR SNOWFALL TOTALS SUGGEST THAT RATES AOA 1 IN/HR WOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LOCALIZED...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE SAINT LOUIS METRO AREA...CONSISTENT WITH THE AXIS OF ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNINGS. ..GRAMS.. 01/20/2011 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well the 00z NAM sure was depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well the 00z NAM sure was depressing. yeah hope it's not onto something. If so all of us missing out on the 1st wave are gonna be disappointed come tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yeah hope it's not onto something. If so all of us missing out on the 1st wave are gonna be disappointed come tomorrow. oh no are we screwed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 oh no are we screwed? The new NAM has dropped off at least .10 of our expected precip (liquid) which would surely cut into our snow totals. Just looks much weaker and disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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