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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Winter 2011


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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0212 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS AND NWRN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 192012Z - 200115Z

BANDS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS NERN KS AND NWRN MO

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH RATES OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2

INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT THE KANSAS CITY

METRO AREA BY 00Z.

STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS

AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE WRN

CONUS. A LLJ AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO ISENTROPIC

UPGLIDE ATOP THE COLD AIR MASS ENVELOPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND

UPPER MIDWEST. CONVERGENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS LLJ...ALONG

WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...WILL

RESULT IN INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS

AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO

OCCUR INVOF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING AIDED BY

850-MB DEFORMATION. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW

BANDING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA...WHERE

MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SLANTWISE INSTABILITY LATER THIS

AFTERNOON. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING STRONG ASCENT THROUGH

A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH IS

ANTICIPATED...WITH RATES EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES PER

HOUR IN THE SNOW BANDS.

..COHEN/GARNER.. 01/19/2011

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP..

post-32-0-54277700-1295471995.gif

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