MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not sure what is going to pan out over the next 48 hours or so, but I do know there is some huge bust potential in the forecast. I would especially not want to be forecasting in NW Arkansas. Yeah if the Euro does something crazy tonite I'm gonna start getting a little worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Ens mean 36 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GGEM showing quite a bit of precip here during the overnite hrs Wed nite and then the bulk of it SE of here during the day Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not sure what is going to pan out over the next 48 hours or so, but I do know there is some huge bust potential in the forecast. I would especially not want to be forecasting in NW Arkansas. Now this is starting to get interesting. Anyone here north of 412 is susceptible to a high snow total if they are in the right spot for banding. Despite the fact we are not supposed to get much snow here(climatologically), it is starting to seem like we might do OK after all if the SW trough can get locked in for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS clown map.. I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Who the heck knows at this point. After this is all over its gonna be hard to remember which model actually verified the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 And GFS data on Bufkit site: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html 5.6" Joplin 5.7" Monett 5.0 Springfield 3.7" Fayetteville 5.3" Tulsa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Biggest diff I see there compared to the NAM is Fayetteville. Otherwise pretty steady. I notice the GFS also paints out around 2" here for the Monday timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Dont know if I'll be around for the Euro tonite. If I'm awake I'll post some totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 And GFS data on Bufkit site: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html 5.6" Joplin 5.7" Monett 5.0 Springfield 3.7" Fayetteville 5.3" Tulsa Hey JoMo, I am not able to get to a computer (have been following this thread thanks to my Blackberry)...what's does the 00z Bufkit GFS pump out for snow accumulation in Wichita? I'll be interested in looking at some model data early in the morning, but overall here generally expecting a 1-3" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 All right... I am heading to bed. I need to be able to be halfway coherent when I teach in the morning. haha Thanks JoMo and MoWeatherGuy for posting all the links and maps on here. It is very much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Hey JoMo, I am not able to get to a computer (have been following this thread thanks to my Blackberry)...what's does the 00z Bufkit GFS pump out for snow accumulation in Wichita? I'll be interested in looking at some model data early in the morning, but overall here generally expecting a 1-3" snow. Looks like 3.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 haha love how the nam wxcaster says 3-4" here now and the gfs says 7-8". Let the challenges begin. It amazes me how much different all the models can be. No wonder my head spins in circles trying to remember it all. I do like that gfs clown map jomo lol. It usually seems to me the nam is better on the qpf though once its in its time frame....at least so far its been right on most of the time up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well, congrats in advance to everyone in this thread except me. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well, congrats in advance to everyone in this thread except me. lol I may not live there anymore but outside of last winter the screwing continues in Norman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Chicago Storm says the Euro spits out: 0.38" QPF for Joplin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Hires models total precip: WRF-NMM = NAM WRF-ARW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 that would be an epic fail for multiple offices for my area ( 3 offices showing 2-5" ) for me and to my south, Beatrice (nam/wrf shows very little, but nws calling for around 6") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The key to this event may be how quick and if a surface low can form over the Red River...even a weak low there can really start pumping in Gulf Moisture as you get a SSE circulation feed on its east side...the 00Z GFS shows a surface low briefly at 36 hours before it gets squashed....the 2/23/03 event overachieved largely due to a small surface low forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 TSA is upgrading NW AR to a Winter Storm Warning and calling for 4-6" of snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 TSA is upgrading NW AR to a Winter Storm Warning and calling for 4-6" of snow there. Extreme NE OK too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Liking the QPF bullseye over NW AR. The trend though would also seem to increase the potential for any heavy snow from JLN to SGF. This could be a good one for a lot of us. OT - What is up with all the activity on the board from midnight to 3am, do any of you have day jobs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Good morning Ozarkwx... I do. I am just that much of a geek. I will be curious to see what SGF does as the day wears on. This situation is about as close to a good hit as we have had in a while areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 morning lets move that warning to tulsa ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looking at a solid advisory event here in Kansas later this afternoon and tonight. While reading the ICT AFD, it was interesting to note that they feel the GFS model has been the most consistent with this storm for the last 24 hours and they largely went with that. Still some uncertainty on where that second area of snow sets up....as that will be what will gives areas south of I-70 in Kansas the bulk of the accumulations. I would dare say that if there was a location with a huge bust potential, it would be in south central Kansas since mesoscale bands of snow are extremely hard to model and have the tendency to surprise people. That said, there has been good consistency with NAM and GFS on where that band of enhanced snow sets up. Meanwhile, NE KS and NW MO look to be the big winners with 4-8" snows likely. ICT's Snowfall Forecast Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 06z RGEM looks like a solid hit over the 4-state area so just had to post it lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like the radar is already starting to fill in for Eastern KS and NE OK. Anyone know if this is hitting the ground or is this virga? Dewpoints are pretty close to actually temps so the air doesn't seem to be too dry. I didn't expect to see anything on the radar until much later this afternoon/early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z NAM continues to bullseye N AR with its heaviest precip. Temps dont appear to be an issue at this point. Overall totals appear to have dropped a bit from last nite's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like the radar is already starting to fill in for Eastern KS and NE OK. Anyone know if this is hitting the ground or is this virga? Dewpoints are pretty close to actually temps so the air doesn't seem to be too dry. I didn't expect to see anything on the radar until much later this afternoon/early evening. its almost here and its ice yikes! its not supposed to come this early i dont want to run to the school this early!!! not hitting the ground yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z NAM bufkit. Totals down a bit but still a good hit everywhere. Snow ratios still running high on the NAM. JLN - 4.9 MON - 5.2 TUL - 3.9 FAY - 6.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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