valerie Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sweet is there a chance that 2-4" line could move further southwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 It's possible, the system hasn't been fully sampled yet. RGEM (Canadian NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like Tulsa is going with an WWA... up to 4" URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 334 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2011 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ054>075-190545- /O.NEW.KTSA.WW.Y.0003.110119T2100Z-110121T0000Z/ BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN- OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES- DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE- MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER- 334 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... * IN OKLAHOMA...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE... WAGONER...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE...PAWNEE...OTTAWA... WASHINGTON...OSAGE...CRAIG...NOWATA...PITTSBURG...SEQUOYAH... MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...LATIMER AND HASKELL. IN ARKANSAS... WASHINGTON...MADISON...CRAWFORD...BENTON... SEBASTIAN...CARROLL AND FRANKLIN. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER TO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... SPREADING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET MAY BE EXPERIENCED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT... BUT RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY EVENING. * UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Love this wording out of the SGF forecaster: WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FASCINATING FORECAST TAKING SHAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Springfield going with a WWA and 2-5" widespread with some areas seeing more, especially if the NAM is catching on to some instability. Could see pockets and bands of heavier snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 From their AFD sounds like SGF going with one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Kinda makes you wonder if somebody might really get nailed with this thing. Still a lot of unknowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Tulsa is already going with precip. sunday and monday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yea im not so sure if I would have pulled the trigger on the WWA just yet... Maybe look at the 00z tonight at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Lol 18z GFS.. It has snow for us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Here's a website that automatically does Bufkit conversions and puts them in easy to read Cobb format: http://www.meteor.ia...data/index.html Joplin gets 5.7" on the 18z NAM. Monett gets only 3.8" due to mix of snow and sleet. GFS is much colder tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Cool site. Tks for the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 this is getting exciting folks are freakin at my groceries buying the entire soup aisle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This is story of my life. I've waited for a good snowstorm all winter long. The day that it comes I'm scheduled to leave at 7:00 AM Thursday morning to fly to China. Hoping it starts before 7:00 AM here in NW Ark so I can see some of it. It may delay me considerably unless I miss it by a couple of hours. UUUGGGGHHHHHH...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 This is story of my life. I've waited for a good snowstorm all winter long. The day that it comes I'm scheduled to leave at 7:00 AM Thursday morning to fly to China. Hoping it starts before 7:00 AM here in NW Ark so I can see some of it. It may delay me considerably unless I miss it by a couple of hours. UUUGGGGHHHHHH...... lol, that sucks. Would kind of be bad if your flight was delayed or canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Trends are looking good with this system. Heady says 3-5" across SW MO, 2-4" across OK, and lesser amounts across SE KS. Hearst says 2-4" and Lighty agrees. Keller didn't give a snowfall forecast at 5 and I wasn't able to watch at 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Nice blog from Doug tonite. Good analysis of his take on the remainder of the winter, as well as our upcoming storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Trends are looking good with this system. Heady says 3-5" across SW MO, 2-4" across OK, and lesser amounts across SE KS. Hearst says 2-4" and Lighty agrees. Keller didn't give a snowfall forecast at 5 and I wasn't able to watch at 6. Keller was pretty much in the same ballpark. Mentioned two main waves of snow - one in the early morning hours and then a heavier wave later in the morning. Seems to be in the 2-4 range for the heart of this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Through 30, the 00z NAM is coming in colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 for a laugh the TWC is saying rain and 50 for tulsa tomorrow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Precip is farther south into OK on the NAM. Looks like a good Tulsa hit. NW Arkansas as well. Looks like the 4 state area gets it good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 for a laugh the TWC is saying rain and 50 for tulsa tomorrow!!! For a laugh... TWC!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Congrats The Waterboy.. Too bad you're gonna miss it NAM was overall colder. Should be interesting to see the ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 For a laugh... TWC!!!! you rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Precip is farther south into OK on the NAM. Looks like a good Tulsa hit. NW Arkansas as well. Looks like the 4 state area gets it good. this is getting better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 How soon do they put out the Bufkit data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Thanks JoMo. Great to see the NAM come around. This could be a nice storm. Maybe it will start early enough to delay/cancel my flight. Then I can stay here longer and enjoy it!!! I'd be ok with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 How soon do they put out the Bufkit data? Not sure. May try around 9 or 9:15? The NAM hasn't finished yet on NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Clown map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Clown map: oh please oh please let that pan out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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