JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 GGEM at 60 has shifted back northward with a bigger area of heavier precip across most of KS/MO. Huge hit @ 72 over SW MO. Looks like it's taking the NAM route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Definately gonna keep an eye on this one....sounds like you guys down that way are in the sweet spot as of right now? The kuchner map pasted about 5" here and the whole county of st.clair in what looked like 7-8"....st.clair is about 3-5 miles to my north lol. Wxcaster nam says about 6" gfs says about 4". What I would give to see one decent 6"+ storm this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sounds like Euro didn't budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sounds like Euro didn't budge. As usual I'm estimating, but JLN (and points north and east) looks to be in the 0.20-0.50" range. Maybe a touch less for NE OK and NW AR. But yeah, not much different from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sounds like Euro didn't budge. Looks like the Euro acftually got wetter for most: SGF - .36 JLN - .35 TUL - .24 FAY - ,27 And BTW the Euro actually has another potential snow for Sunday across mainly MO - showing .25 for SGF and JLN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like the Euro acftually got wetter for most: SGF - .36 JLN - .35 TUL - .24 FAY - ,27 And BTW the Euro actually has another potential snow for Sunday across mainly MO - showing .25 for SGF and JLN. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Really liking that GGEM. Showing around a .50 bullseye over SW MO on Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Agreed, although NAM may be trying to pick up on some of the banding.... Still think GFS has the better idea. BTW... "you know who" went from not a big deal to "several inches of snow" during the 10:00 newscast. Anyone surprised? I'm not. Edit: I would really like to hear Doug's thoughts. I hope the internet gets back up and running for them soon. Not a shocker to hear that he did that. Didnt catch him at 10 was watching the others. Hopefully its not the kiss of death that he jumped on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Doug's blog this morning: http://www.koamtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=13858872 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 morning guys! i see the heavy snow is now in arkansas phooey! i see the ice has increased! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 morning guys! i see the heavy snow is now in arkansas phooey! i see the ice has increased! Yeah the 6z run of the NAM shifted the best snows north but the Euro still looks OK for most of us. 12z NAM running now and appears to be back south a bit but may still be too far north for you to get a decent snow. I'm not a big fan of 6z runs so this morning we hopefully get a clearer picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Temps are obviously a big limiting factor on snowfall for some of our region as 2M temps are above freezing as everything is getting started. Otherwise there would be more snow on this map. 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Here is the NAM at h48 showing the 2M temps and the wedge of warm trying to ride up into the area. The 0z Euro was about 3-5 degrees colder for this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS looking colder than the NAM and has defin been the more consistent with this storm, shades of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z GFS snow map. Much more widespread for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Springfield thinking a general 2.5-5" across the area like the last system. They did mention things could change and totals could be higher where heavier bands setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Springfield thinking a general 2.5-5" across the area like the last system. They did mention things could change and totals could be higher where heavier bands setup Yeah I'm thinking somebody could cash in on an isolated higher amt somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah I'm thinking somebody could cash in on an isolated higher amt somewhere. Seems to me this storm or pieces of energy whatever they are lol has more potential then the last system did. Gfs and nam wxcaster both paste around 5" here. They also got slight pops of snow from noon after tomorrow up here but temps say 33....still sounds like springfield is concerned a warm nose may also screw things idk Just went outside and man is it snowing. Sun is shining to....crazy weather!Also see rain or snow in sunday and sunday nights forecast as well....i think jomo mentioned this earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Seems to me this storm or pieces of energy whatever they are lol has more potential then the last system did. Gfs and nam wxcaster both paste around 5" here. They also got slight pops of snow from noon after tomorrow up here but temps say 33....still sounds like springfield is concerned a warm nose may also screw things idk Just went outside and man is it snowing. Sun is shining to....crazy weather!Also see rain or snow in sunday and sunday nights forecast as well....i think jomo mentioned this earlier Bonus flakes for you today huh? I think you are sitting pretty good up there for our next system - colder temps for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 sleet for thursday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Bonus flakes for you today huh? I think you are sitting pretty good up there for our next system - colder temps for sure. Yea man its nice to see flakes flying....ill take anything. Is probly just remnant moisture with this cold front swinging through. Yea it seems to be cold enough by what i saw temp wise for all of us. Dont know about those in oklahoma or arkansas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GGEM appears to be doing something a little different as far as timing. Shows most of our moisture to be in and out of here by 12z Thur so about 6 hrs or so quicker. Thats a little suspect to me. Here's the link if anybody wants to look at the runs. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Still some spread in the GFS ensembles about where the best snow sets up at. Looks like the energy in questions may not be fully over land to be sampled by tonights 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Still some spread in the GFS ensembles about where the best snow sets up at. Looks like the energy in questions may not be fully over land to be sampled by tonights 00z runs. DId the GGEM look a little strange to you (compared to previous runs) or is it just adjusted a bit more south or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 DId the GGEM look a little strange to you (compared to previous runs) or is it just adjusted a bit more south or something? Looked fine to me. It's not a very good model and has shifted around as much as the NAM. I think it shows a good 'front end thump' of snow, then sinks the system farther south and east. You have Euro precip yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Until you get the exact numbers from the 12z Euro, you can broad brush 0.25-0.50" for pretty much all of MO, far NE corner of OK, and far NW corner of AR. There is a small stripe of 0.50"+ just south of Kansas City east through the middle of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Bufkit: JLN: NAM and GFS paint around 4.5" despite the NAM having more of a mix early on. Monett: NAM shows 3.8" or so, GFS closer to 5" Tulsa: NAM not even an inch. GFS has higher ratios and is colder so around 4 inches. Fayetteville: NAM shows 1/2". GFS shows 3.5" due to higher ratios and colder profiles. Springfield: NAM shows around 5". GFS shows 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looked fine to me. It's not a very good model and has shifted around as much as the NAM. I think it shows a good 'front end thump' of snow, then sinks the system farther south and east. You have Euro precip yet? SGF - .28 JLN - .31 TUL - .20 FAY - .24 KC and STL in the .45 range. A little dropoff from last nite. Still showing around .20 for late Sunday/early Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Since we're getting into Hires range. Here's the WRF-NMM (NAM) total precip. (Still snowing after this) And WRF-ARW module: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Tulsa HWO: And snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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