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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Winter 2011


JoMo

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Springfield had an update.

GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO GENERALLY BE ON TRACK THIS
EVENING...WITH NEW NAM DATA ARRIVING OVER THE LAST HOUR REMAINING
GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FIRST OF THE TWO STORM SYSTEMS SPINNING ITS
WAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH A FEW DEFORMATION LOBES
MAKING THEIR WAY UP NORTH OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. 00Z SGF RAOB
DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND THE SLOWLY-CLOSING
DONUT HOLE OF REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR SUGGESTS THAT WHILE LOW
LEVEL SATURATION IS TAKING PLACE...IT IS TAKING SOME TIME THIS
EVENING. AS SNOW BEGINS TO REACH THE GROUND...REALLY THINK IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING A DUSTING TO JUST UNDER AN INCH AT
BEST...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE BEST FORCING WILL BE OUT OF
HERE BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE.

OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECT ROUND 2 OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE CWA AROUND
DAYBREAK TOMORROW...AND QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LATEST NAM DATA GENERALLY SUPPORTS GOING
ACCUMULATIONS...AND THUS ADVISORY HEADLINE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING REALLY TAKES HOLD. ONLY MINOR
CHANGE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WAS TO UP TOTALS A TAD OVER THE U.S.
71 CORRIDOR...WHERE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LOWER INSTABILITY ALOFT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF TROPOPAUSE
UNDULATION(S) AS A 130 KT UPPER JET BARRELS INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. CHANGES THAT WERE MADE TO ACCUM GRIDS WERE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND TOTALS STILL REMAIN SOLIDLY IN ADVISORY TERRITORY.

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Tulsa updated but this stupid forum software will sometimes let me post it, and sometimes it jumbles it all together.......

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
916 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING A FEW HOURS EARLY AS THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL HAS ENDED. 00Z OUN SOUNDING
ALONG WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
SUGGESTIVE OF AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR
A GOOD PORTION OF ERN OK AND NW AR. 00Z NAM
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING AREAS OF LIGHT/MODERATE
SNOW INTO NE OK TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING EAST ON MONDAY. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS...AROUND
2-3" LIKELY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH 1-2"
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE OK/NW AR.

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lol jomo....its not even flurrying there? i love how springfield said the classic "donut hole".....man i hope that dont jinx me now for tomorrow lol

was just outside and nothing.It may starts here before long though looking at radar and the fact that the dewpoint jumped to 18 at the station SE of here.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1046 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

.UPDATE...

LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS PREVENTED SNOW FROM REACHING GROUND IN FAR
SOUTHEAST KS SO FAR. 0000 UTC RAOBS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER LAPSE
RATE AT TOP OF INVERSION THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED...WITH BRIEF
TRANSITION TO A BIT MORE CELLULAR ECHOES DURING THE EVENING. THIS
IN COMBINATION OF DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HAVE
RESULTED IN PERIOD OF 1/4-1/2SM SNOW AT KRSL AROUND 03Z. NAM/GFS
BOTH SUGGEST A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS STARTING BEFORE 0600 UTC AND EXITING
SOUTHEAST KS BY MID MORNING. THIS IS LIKELY RESULT OF INCREASING
UPPER JET AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE. FORECAST LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE OUTSIDE THIS ONE TRANSIENT BAND...SO GOING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN THE BALL PARK...WITH LOWER NUMBERS
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HIGHER NUMBERS THE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

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Finally snowing here.. yay

Springfield aviation update:

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...BULK OF PRECIPITATION WITH FIRST WAVE HAS ENDED
AT THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS WITH SOME MVFR/VFR LIGHT SNOWS STILL
OCCURRING AT SGF/BBG FOR THE FIRST COUPLE FEW HOURS OF THE 06Z
TAFS STILL POSSIBLE. WILL PROBABLY SEE A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT
WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOWARDS MORNING.
THIS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY WITH HEAVIEST SNOW
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AT JLN AND DURING THE EVENING
AT SGF AND LATE EVENING AT BBG. FOR NOW HAVE VSBY DROPPING TO 1SM
IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BUT COULD SEE HEAVIER SNOW
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IF SLANTWISE CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AS NAM
IS HINTING AT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 71 CORRIDOR BY 21Z.

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its so light in jenks gotta look at something dark lol!

So fine here you can barely see it as well lol. Things are covered now though which is a nice sight to see for once. Oh and they probly closed the other thread cause it was to many pages i really dont know but if i was to guess that would be why. Springfield here think 4-5" but the models say 2-3 which is also fine by me.

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Will anyone south of I-44 even see snow?

well according to springfield 1-3". Some of the snow maps i have looked at look bleak for you guys down there though :( best chances will probly be later this afternoon into this evening but im no pro. Maybe one of the other guys can answer better when they get on here

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All the schools south of here are closing early. We have like 1/2" on the ground and it's melting off the roads.

yea i notcied a ton of them down that way posting closings last night on tv allready lol....got about the same here a half inch. Its starting to pick up now. So whats your current thinking with this thing jomo....i also notice alot of snow chances in the longer range from the NWS.

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