JoMo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 First! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Snow is failling in parts of the area tonight. More snow tomorrow. Positive way to start a new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Snow is failling in parts of the area tonight. More snow tomorrow. flurrying here now to....really windy also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Springfield had an update. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO GENERALLY BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH NEW NAM DATA ARRIVING OVER THE LAST HOUR REMAINING GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FIRST OF THE TWO STORM SYSTEMS SPINNING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH A FEW DEFORMATION LOBES MAKING THEIR WAY UP NORTH OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. 00Z SGF RAOB DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND THE SLOWLY-CLOSING DONUT HOLE OF REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR SUGGESTS THAT WHILE LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS TAKING PLACE...IT IS TAKING SOME TIME THIS EVENING. AS SNOW BEGINS TO REACH THE GROUND...REALLY THINK IT WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING A DUSTING TO JUST UNDER AN INCH AT BEST...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE BEST FORCING WILL BE OUT OF HERE BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECT ROUND 2 OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE CWA AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW...AND QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LATEST NAM DATA GENERALLY SUPPORTS GOING ACCUMULATIONS...AND THUS ADVISORY HEADLINE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING REALLY TAKES HOLD. ONLY MINOR CHANGE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WAS TO UP TOTALS A TAD OVER THE U.S. 71 CORRIDOR...WHERE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOWER INSTABILITY ALOFT TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION(S) AS A 130 KT UPPER JET BARRELS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. CHANGES THAT WERE MADE TO ACCUM GRIDS WERE AN INCH OR LESS...AND TOTALS STILL REMAIN SOLIDLY IN ADVISORY TERRITORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 See guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 See guys... see what? dry as a bone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 see what? dry as a bone here. lol jomo....its not even flurrying there? i love how springfield said the classic "donut hole".....man i hope that dont jinx me now for tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tulsa updated but this stupid forum software will sometimes let me post it, and sometimes it jumbles it all together....... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 916 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING A FEW HOURS EARLY AS THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL HAS ENDED. 00Z OUN SOUNDING ALONG WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGESTIVE OF AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF ERN OK AND NW AR. 00Z NAM CONSISTENT IN BRINGING AREAS OF LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW INTO NE OK TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST ON MONDAY. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS...AROUND 2-3" LIKELY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH 1-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE OK/NW AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 lol jomo....its not even flurrying there? i love how springfield said the classic "donut hole".....man i hope that dont jinx me now for tomorrow lol was just outside and nothing.It may starts here before long though looking at radar and the fact that the dewpoint jumped to 18 at the station SE of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM snow maps updated: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=SGF GFS total snow: (appears the heaviest skirts along the KS/OK/MO/AR border tomorrow afternoon/evening) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Should i be concerned lol....a lot of those snow maps are starting to show less and less for most of us now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's primarily a light snow event. I think the NAM still may be warming it up too much tomorrow so it's totals are lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Day 7 event still looks interesting, will probably turn out to be nothing though, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yea jomo its way to far out lol....i dont trust long rangers. NWS does say a chance of snow sat night though into sunday. Maybe who knows time will tell....still flurrying out and some things are coated but its windy and blowing everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1046 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 .UPDATE... LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS PREVENTED SNOW FROM REACHING GROUND IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS SO FAR. 0000 UTC RAOBS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER LAPSE RATE AT TOP OF INVERSION THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED...WITH BRIEF TRANSITION TO A BIT MORE CELLULAR ECHOES DURING THE EVENING. THIS IN COMBINATION OF DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HAVE RESULTED IN PERIOD OF 1/4-1/2SM SNOW AT KRSL AROUND 03Z. NAM/GFS BOTH SUGGEST A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS STARTING BEFORE 0600 UTC AND EXITING SOUTHEAST KS BY MID MORNING. THIS IS LIKELY RESULT OF INCREASING UPPER JET AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE. FORECAST LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE OUTSIDE THIS ONE TRANSIENT BAND...SO GOING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN THE BALL PARK...WITH LOWER NUMBERS MORE WIDESPREAD AND HIGHER NUMBERS THE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Finally snowing here.. yay Springfield aviation update: FOR THE 06Z TAFS...BULK OF PRECIPITATION WITH FIRST WAVE HAS ENDED AT THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS WITH SOME MVFR/VFR LIGHT SNOWS STILL OCCURRING AT SGF/BBG FOR THE FIRST COUPLE FEW HOURS OF THE 06Z TAFS STILL POSSIBLE. WILL PROBABLY SEE A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOWARDS MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY WITH HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AT JLN AND DURING THE EVENING AT SGF AND LATE EVENING AT BBG. FOR NOW HAVE VSBY DROPPING TO 1SM IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BUT COULD SEE HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IF SLANTWISE CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AS NAM IS HINTING AT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 71 CORRIDOR BY 21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Finally snowing here.. yay Glad you are finally getting in on the action. Had a nice dusting here... but with the wind, it really whips it around all over the place. Time for bed... will be up and down throughout the night checking on the weather I am sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 06z NAM is still indicating some kind of convective look to the precip tomorrow late afternoon and evening over SE KS and far western Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I dont know how.. but some how I picked up.. get this...an INCH out that southern system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hey guys why was the other thread closed? woke up to snow on the road lightly snowing currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Snow is coming down pretty good in Bentonville/Rogers area. Not big flakes but the parking lot is already white. Radar doesn't hardly pick up anything which is odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 its so light in jenks gotta look at something dark lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 hey guys why was the other thread closed? woke up to snow on the road lightly snowing currently. when a thread reaches around 1,000 replies they close it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 its so light in jenks gotta look at something dark lol! So fine here you can barely see it as well lol. Things are covered now though which is a nice sight to see for once. Oh and they probly closed the other thread cause it was to many pages i really dont know but if i was to guess that would be why. Springfield here think 4-5" but the models say 2-3 which is also fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
springfieldnewsnut Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Will anyone south of I-44 even see snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Will anyone south of I-44 even see snow? well according to springfield 1-3". Some of the snow maps i have looked at look bleak for you guys down there though best chances will probly be later this afternoon into this evening but im no pro. Maybe one of the other guys can answer better when they get on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 All the schools south of here are closing early. We have like 1/2" on the ground and it's melting off the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 All the schools south of here are closing early. We have like 1/2" on the ground and it's melting off the roads. yea i notcied a ton of them down that way posting closings last night on tv allready lol....got about the same here a half inch. Its starting to pick up now. So whats your current thinking with this thing jomo....i also notice alot of snow chances in the longer range from the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Daytime snows suck... it is snowing but it melts. Here is my negativity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 whats happened to the NWS page? i cant access my jenks forecast page or anywhere the entire site is down!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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