famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Euro has been tremendously consistant and upping qpf on every run. Ill b shocked if it disapoints us tonight Actually I think yesterday's 12Z run and last night's 0Z run were almost identical on the EC. Today's ticked things up/west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 dumping in the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Didn't someone say that tonight's runs were key a few hours ago? I wanted to call him on it then but resisted the urge... everyone was also bashing than NAM 6 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br />SREF indies<br /><br /><img src="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSNE_21z/f57.gif" /><br /><br /><br /><br />Those look pretty nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 actually a good trend on the gfs with the h5 low. the thing the model does is crush he southern wave more and when its beginning to transfer energy to the coast, its very slow at doing it. but the h5 low is a perfect spot which should yield a better lift along the coast. but thats not happening. we have to see how the southern wave thats pounding the deep south how bad it gets sheared and how quickly the lifting up the coast is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not Really after looking Nam this is a Buzzkill Run Back-To-Reality Run.. Was hoping the GFS would build the Momentum but as Earthlight points out the H5 Orientation looks better and close to Nam maybe the 6Z or 12 Z will show the Blockbuster, If the Euro is Close to the Nam than I would expect the GFs to do so tomorrow morning.. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 To me.... there is little consistency to pin down a final forecast yet. When there is a 200+ mile difference between the NAM and GFS in this range then obviously there are details that still need to be worked out. I do not know which one is right or wrong but all I am saying is that we dont have a good idea of final track yet. With that said lets remember that it was the NAM that scored the coup against the GFS with Boxer day storm with the further east track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 To me.... there is little consistency to pin down a final forecast yet. When there is a 200+ mile difference between the NAM and GFS in this range then obviously there are details that still need to be worked out. I do not know which one is right or wrong but all I am saying is that we dont have a good idea of final track yet. With that said lets remember that it was the NAM that scored the coup against the GFS with Boxer day storm with the further east track That was only true in the very last few runs before the storm... within 24 hours. 48 hours out the NAM was playing catch-up with the GFS as the GFS went way closer to the coast ahead of every other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not Really after looking Nam this is a Buzzkill Run.. Was hoping the GFS would build the Momentum but as Earthlight points out the H5 Orientation looks better and close to Nam maybe the 6Z or 12 Z will show the Blockbuster, If the Euro is Close to the Nam than I would expect the GFs to do so tomorrow morning.. there is nothing wrong with a 3-6 storm, its a solid hit, the mentality that every storm has foot plus potential will drive you to an early grave enventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The GFS is definitely better at 48 hours at H5 than 54 hours at 18z. For some reason, it was showing less QPF initially before the H5 low closed off, which is why the QPF never really improved, but the H5 presentation is certainly better. It's trending towards an earlier close-of and thus a bit more amplification. As earthlight said, just a few hours earlier, and we have a very big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Time to bash the consistent GFS solution and praise the NAM, the same model I have seen posted countless times is worthless outside of 48 hours (of course it is when it doesn't show what us snowlovers want). Seems the GFS has more models in its camp then the NAM but I personally would love to see the NAM solution verify but not holding my breath. I think a solid 3-6" event is in the cards but another widespread 8-20"+ event is in trouble. Will be interesting to see which model caves to the other in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That was only true in the very last few runs before the storm... within 24 hours. 48 hours out the NAM was playing catch-up with the GFS as the GFS went way closer to the coast ahead of every other model. Agreed however it was the NAM that at least for just immediately NW of I95 never really showed the heavy stuff making it there (this turned out to be correct) and the GFS consistently showed this area getting nailed (up until the very short range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 there is nothing wrong with a 3-6 storm, its a solid hit, the mentality that every storm has foot plus potential will drive you to an early grave enventually 3-6" is more of a nuisance event to me but it's ok if you like snow. I would prefer more of a 5-8" event. Why can't the models every agree within 2-3 days, it's so annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Agreed however it was the NAM that at least for just immediately NW of I95 never really showed the heavy stuff making it there (this turned out to be correct) and the GFS consistently showed this area getting nailed (up until the very short range). That's still not really accurate. For 1, the 18Z NAM run on Christmas showed a big hit even west of I-95. It was the most inland run of them all. The best GFS runs were probably in the 48-24 hour time frame as it led the charge for a storm up the coast instead of OTS. Within 24 it went a bit too far west and then shifted back right at the end. Also gotta remember... cut-offs with precip are likely to be crazy AGAIN with this storm... so if you are on a progged gradient, be very worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Agreed however it was the NAM that at least for just immediately NW of I95 never really showed the heavy stuff making it there (this turned out to be correct) and the GFS consistently showed this area getting nailed (up until the very short range). the GFS has a known bias to over-smooth cutoffs. most NYC forecasters called for 3-6" on 2/6/10 based on the GFS, even though the NAM had much much less. We all know how that turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That's still not really accurate. For 1, the 18Z NAM run on Christmas showed a big hit even west of I-95. It was the most inland run of them all. The best GFS runs were probably in the 48-24 hour time frame as it led the charge for a storm up the coast instead of OTS. Within 24 it went a bit too far west and then shifted back right at the end. Also gotta remember... cut-offs with precip are likely to be crazy AGAIN with this storm... so if you are on a progged gradient, be very worried. What did other runs around that 18Z run say? From what i remember it was the NAM that was heavily criticized for being too far E which turned out to be correct. Also for what its worth i personally put little stock into 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That's still not really accurate. For 1, the 18Z NAM run on Christmas showed a big hit even west of I-95. It was the most inland run of them all. The best GFS runs were probably in the 48-24 hour time frame as it led the charge for a storm up the coast instead of OTS. Within 24 it went a bit too far west and then shifted back right at the end. Also gotta remember... cut-offs with precip are likely to be crazy AGAIN with this storm... so if you are on a progged gradient, be very worried. good points... if 0z euro comes in tucked inside BM, NAM/EURO combo wud la la lock it up! also, within 48hr mesoscale models are ideal right? mm5 verified pretty well on boxing day, go with that again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 good points... if 0z euro comes in tucked inside BM, NAM/EURO combo wud la la lock it up! also, within 48hr mesoscale models are ideal right? mm5 verified pretty well on boxing day, go with that again? How can anything be locked up when there is at least a 200 mile difference between different models right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What did other runs around that 18Z run say? From what i remember it was the NAM that was heavily criticized for being too far E which turned out to be correct. Also for what its worth i personally put little stock into 18z runs. I don't think it was quite as far east as you think. Probably a majority of NJ had 1"+ of precip on 12/26-27. Granted the NW did get utterly screwed... but even with only 10", I had 1" liquid (atrocious ratios since I was outside the super-band). Anyway the 18Z GFS that day was far west too... also the farthest west of any GFS run (and slightly further west than the NAM i think). The shift east began after that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 you can't compare this to boxing day... totally different setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Normally I would discount the NAM's solution but it has full support from the SREFs, so I do not think the GFS is the best model to go with right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 3-6" is more of a nuisance event to me but it's ok if you like snow. I would prefer more of a 5-8" event. Why can't the models every agree within 2-3 days, it's so annoying. nuisance event? You must under the age of 20 because a 3-6 storm in the 80s and through the 90s was considered a solid snowstorm, its just past decade and the last 5 years that have fooled people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 SREF's, NAM, EURO, RGEM vs GFS, UKMET hmmm for hmmmm you forgot recent NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 you can't compare this to boxing day... totally different setup Not comparing this storm to boxing day at all..... We are looking at the differences in how models are handling these storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS has the leading vort to progressive and it escapes east too quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 good points... if 0z euro comes in tucked inside BM, NAM/EURO combo wud la la lock it up! also, within 48hr mesoscale models are ideal right? mm5 verified pretty well on boxing day, go with that again? Its still too far out to go too heavy with the mesoscales yet. Wait til the system is within 48 hours (so not until 12Z tomorrow at the earliest), then start giving the mesoscales more weight. Right now I'd go with a blend of the GFS and whatever the EC spits out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 To me.... there is little consistency to pin down a final forecast yet. When there is a 200+ mile difference between the NAM and GFS in this range then obviously there are details that still need to be worked out. I do not know which one is right or wrong but all I am saying is that we dont have a good idea of final track yet. With that said lets remember that it was the NAM that scored the coup against the GFS with Boxer day storm with the further east track it has been mention thousands of times by many mets that the GFS has a known SE bias with lows on the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 you can't compare this to boxing day... totally different setup This is a Miller B, that was Miller A. That being said, the one similarity is that the models are again bombing the system out right as it moves on by. This time though its an energy transfer instead of a phase which needs to be worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 it has been mention thousands of times by many mets that the GFS has a known SE bias with lows on the east coast Yes BUT... we're getting to the time when that bias is weakening on the GFS. Just as a reminder, it was about this time with 12/26 (48 hours out) that the GFS really got the big west trend underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How can anything be locked up when there is at least a 200 mile difference between different models right now? I think its locked that its going to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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