RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The H5 orientation trended towards the NAM big time agreed. nice h5 depiction over KY. classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The H5 orientation trended towards the NAM big time It closed off at H5 at 48, about 6 hours later than the NAM, but definitely more amped than previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 51 light snow up to nyc....mod snow from phl-pitt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br />H5 orientation is much improved but its not going to deliver a huge megastorm<br /><br /><br /><br />I'm struggling trying to find the differences.. It looks a bit better perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 While H5 may be improved... the GFS still seems to hang onto the weaker/east idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ugly run despite the better orientation aloft..surface low escapes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> I'm struggling trying to find the differences.. It looks a bit better perhaps Same. I think it's a bit better, but not THAT much better. It's still shearing out the s/w a bit at 42 hours--the GFS seems to do that a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 54 mod snow for phl-nyc...looks like the heavy preciep will stay east of i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ok.. Now at 54 I see it looks better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Man, I can't believe the coast changes back to snow with that track. Dynamic cooling FTW. Yeah, the forecast soundings for KACY show rather impressive column cooling taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Do you use a website for that? If so can you post it. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well... I mean.. The good news is that the 500 low is definitely looking better organized this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS is going WAY east of NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 57 mod snow from phl-nyc.... .25+ from delmarva-nyc...including philly and ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Same. I think it's a bit better, but not THAT much better. It's still shearing out the s/w a bit at 42 hours--the GFS seems to do that a lot. based on looking at the current radar........does that seem like it is really going to get sheared out??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's another one of those deals, similar to the last event, where the GFS is a few hours away from tugging everything back northwest. It's H5 improvements are a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 a nice general 3-6 on the gfs, good event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Meh, the fact that H5 is better is good enough for me. We still have a day of trending to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What is bothersome is the GFS has been remarkably consisten showing a further east solution, while the NAM has been jumping back and forth the last several runs. The euro tonight and 12z model runs tomorrow will be key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ukmet remains east of all the guidance. http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2011011000®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=0&F1=none&C1=hght&C2=tmpc&VEC=none&F2=p06i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 nyc east its .50+ and west of nyc its .25+...thats the whole storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Euro has been tremendously consistant and upping qpf on every run. Ill b shocked if it disapoints us tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 last nights 00z run , 06z run and todays 12z run of the GFS closed the h5 low at 03z wed. 18z pushed it to 00z wed and tonights 00z is 00z wed (begins 21z tues on ewall). GFS is the latest and might be playing catch up/SE bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Euro has been tremendously consistant and upping qpf on every run. Ill b shocked if it disapoints us tonight GFS has been very consistent in what it has been showing as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 thats one of the bigger difference i have seen between the NAM and GFS inside of 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What is bothersome is the GFS has been remarkably consisten showing a further east solution, while the NAM has been jumping back and forth the last several runs. The euro tonight and 12z model runs tomorrow will be key Didn't someone say that tonight's runs were key a few hours ago? I wanted to call him on it then but resisted the urge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's like the GFS has a tendency to shear out the vorticity... It was doing that a lot last month too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 a nice general 3-6 on the gfs, good event Not Really after looking Nam this is a Buzzkill Run.. Was hoping the GFS would build the Momentum but as Earthlight points out the H5 Orientation looks better and close to Nam maybe the 6Z or 12 Z will show the Blockbuster, If the Euro is Close to the Nam than I would expect the GFs to do so tomorrow morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 SREF indies http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSNE_21z/f60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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