Zir0b Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RGEM looks excellent to me...@48 hrs has the H5 low in Ohio centered below the latitude of the PA/MD border....would likely explode in later frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Don't forget POU 31" LOL And SWF 31" lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RGEM looks excellent to me...has the H5 low in Ohio centered below the latitude of the PA/MD border....would likely explode in later frames I agree its heading in the right direction, I think it would be bias east compared to the NAm but we're on the right road (maybe I should say left road) with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS has initialized baby let's go!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS initializing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 And SWF 31" lol... what ratio do you use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what ratio do you use? That'd be a 23:1 ratio for SWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is it possible to have a ratio less than 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is it possible to have a ratio less than 10:1? Yes. A lot of things can cut ratios down to 8:1 or even less. And then you have mixed events and sleet which are even lower ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is it possible to have a ratio less than 10:1? yes, happens often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what ratio do you use? 110112/0600Z 54 03009KT 25.3F SNOW 18:1| 0.5|| 0.5 0.028|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110112/0700Z 55 04011KT 25.9F SNOW 19:1| 1.8|| 2.3 0.094|| 0.12 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0800Z 56 04012KT 26.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.9|| 3.2 0.079|| 0.20 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0900Z 57 01008KT 25.9F SNOW 19:1| 1.6|| 4.8 0.083|| 0.28 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/1000Z 58 02013KT 25.5F SNOW 21:1| 5.2||10.0 0.248|| 0.53 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/1100Z 59 01014KT 25.3F SNOW 21:1| 3.9||13.9 0.189|| 0.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/1200Z 60 36015KT 25.3F SNOW 22:1| 3.3||17.2 0.150|| 0.87 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110112/1300Z 61 35015KT 25.7F SNOW 25:1| 3.6||20.8 0.146|| 1.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/1400Z 62 34016KT 25.9F SNOW 26:1| 3.0||23.7 0.114|| 1.13 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/1500Z 63 33016KT 26.6F SNOW 26:1| 2.4||26.1 0.094|| 1.22 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/1600Z 64 33015KT 26.6F SNOW 27:1| 2.1||28.3 0.079|| 1.30 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/1700Z 65 32015KT 26.4F SNOW 31:1| 1.9||30.2 0.063|| 1.37 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/1800Z 66 32015KT 26.6F SNOW 24:1| 1.0||31.2 0.043|| 1.41 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110112/1900Z 67 32014KT 27.0F SNOW 21:1| 0.8||32.0 0.035|| 1.44 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/2000Z 68 32014KT 27.7F SNOW 17:1| 0.3||32.3 0.016|| 1.46 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/2100Z 69 32014KT 28.0F SNOW 14:1| 0.1||32.4 0.008|| 1.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/2200Z 70 32014KT 27.7F SNOW 14:1| 0.1||32.4 0.004|| 1.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyr Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is it possible to have a ratio less than 10:1? Yeah I have seen 8 to 1 and it was like cement mix falling from the sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ATL highways are a complete mess right now. wow! sorry. gfs threw 12hr nothing jumps out on me. a bit more precip with the southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yep..can be 6 or 7:1 Is it possible to have a ratio less than 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That'd be a 23:1 ratio for SWF. get to 31:1 at one point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That'd be a 23:1 ratio for SWF. 110112/0600Z 54 03009KT 25.3F SNOW 18:1| 0.5|| 0.5 0.028|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110112/0700Z 55 04011KT 25.9F SNOW 19:1| 1.8|| 2.3 0.094|| 0.12 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0800Z 56 04012KT 26.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.9|| 3.2 0.079|| 0.20 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/0900Z 57 01008KT 25.9F SNOW 19:1| 1.6|| 4.8 0.083|| 0.28 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/1000Z 58 02013KT 25.5F SNOW 21:1| 5.2||10.0 0.248|| 0.53 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/1100Z 59 01014KT 25.3F SNOW 21:1| 3.9||13.9 0.189|| 0.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/1200Z 60 36015KT 25.3F SNOW 22:1| 3.3||17.2 0.150|| 0.87 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110112/1300Z 61 35015KT 25.7F SNOW 25:1| 3.6||20.8 0.146|| 1.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/1400Z 62 34016KT 25.9F SNOW 26:1| 3.0||23.7 0.114|| 1.13 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/1500Z 63 33016KT 26.6F SNOW 26:1| 2.4||26.1 0.094|| 1.22 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/1600Z 64 33015KT 26.6F SNOW 27:1| 2.1||28.3 0.079|| 1.30 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/1700Z 65 32015KT 26.4F SNOW 31:1| 1.9||30.2 0.063|| 1.37 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/1800Z 66 32015KT 26.6F SNOW 24:1| 1.0||31.2 0.043|| 1.41 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110112/1900Z 67 32014KT 27.0F SNOW 21:1| 0.8||32.0 0.035|| 1.44 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/2000Z 68 32014KT 27.7F SNOW 17:1| 0.3||32.3 0.016|| 1.46 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/2100Z 69 32014KT 28.0F SNOW 14:1| 0.1||32.4 0.008|| 1.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110112/2200Z 70 32014KT 27.7F SNOW 14:1| 0.1||32.4 0.004|| 1.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 Thanks, I use the bufkit program, but I need to type in the ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RkTec Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 00z NAM Bufkit JFK- 20.4" EWR- 23.9" PHL- 17.5" ABE 13.7" RDG- 8.5" AVP 8.1" HPN 25.7" TTN- 15.9" ACY 3.4" That was 12Z, this is the 00Z run: JFK- 21.1" EWR- 24.4" PHL- 15.1" ABE-17.0" RDG-10.6" AVP 10.0" HPN 28.2" TTN- 18.1" ACY 1.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Famartin, I'm primarily a New England poster/lurker but I've been reading your analysis on these forums for a long time and like many people I'm rooting for you to get back East as quick as you can!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Through 33 hours, the coastal is 8mb's stronger than the primary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That was 12Z, this is the 00Z run: JFK- 21.1" EWR- 24.4" PHL- 15.1" ABE-17.0" RDG-10.6" AVP 10.0" HPN 28.2" TTN- 18.1" ACY 1.7" The mixing is probably very close for central and maybe western LI per this NAM run though. I'd much rather see the low stay east of Montauk to avoid precip type issues, but maybe the rapid deepening compensates somewhat. I would imagine ISP is lower than JFK on this BUFKIT. Otherwise though, awesome solution!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That was 12Z, this is the 00Z run: JFK- 21.1" EWR- 24.4" PHL- 15.1" ABE-17.0" RDG-10.6" AVP 10.0" HPN 28.2" TTN- 18.1" ACY 1.7" I just saw that when I went to the visualize data screen, guess I need to hit refresh when I go into the data itself, thanks and sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 through 36, coastal low looks stronger....southern stream never really shears. h5 low over KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Through 42... Not much different at 500 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what ratio do you use? You can see it here... http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kswf.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 H5 orientation is much improved but its not going to deliver a huge megastorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The H5 orientation trended towards the NAM big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 comparing 48hrs on the gfs to the nam...the costal low is further east and weaker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 closed h5 low @ 48hrs over OH.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 H5 orientation is much improved but its not going to deliver a huge megastorm It's still shearing out the s/w at 42 hours. I don't really get it. The Goofus always seems to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I just saw that when I went to the visualize data screen, guess I need to hit refresh when I go into the data itself, thanks and sorry Do you use a website for that? If so can you post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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