famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the high res that i have only goes to hr 60, heres the one i use http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm the name at 40 km 3 hr incr I used the low res since it goes further and the storm does last a bit longer than 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I used the low res since it goes further and the storm does last a bit longer than 60. yea thats what i figured...i guess adjust your numbers with mine lol like phl and some others... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 And now for the amazing image of the night, the NAM is placing a strong frontogenically forced deformation band directly overhead New York City on tonight's run. Prolific snowfall totals would ensue...as would thundersnow in all likelihood given the rapid deepening occurring just offshore and the generally insane dynamics across the board. Let's hope it's not too wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Great run...good to see the NAM breaking NYC's 2+ week HECS drought. sorry to interupt a model thread but many props Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 where can I find the total precip from the 21z SREFs? On NCEP I still see last night's run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Would be a candidate for the gold old "heavy snow warning" given the duration and intensity...if the product were still around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 where can I find the total precip from the 21z SREFs? On NCEP I still see last night's run... You should see it if you refresh or clear your cache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Anyone think watches go up tonight? No. Too early. And no support for this solution..yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 850s at -4 thru -6 for KNYC Total QPF 1.56 http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 No. Too early. And no support for this solution..yet. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IS RUNNING HIGH...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF MUCH GREATER TOTALS WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP...MUCH TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. HWO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS POTENTIAL... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WATCHES COULD BE RAISED OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 No. Too early. And no support for this solution..yet. Euro/GFS/NAm all have warning criteria snow for Upton's CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How does the timing look on the NAM for NYC, we talking the big snow moving in late tuesday into early wed. Starts after 00z Tuesday, pounds all night into the early AM, and tapers off by around noon Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How does the timing look on the NAM for NYC, we talking the big snow moving in late tuesday into early wed. yes looks 10pm Tues - 1pm WED ish for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 And now for the amazing image of the night, the NAM is placing a strong frontogenically forced deformation band directly overhead New York City on tonight's run. Prolific snowfall totals would ensue...as would thundersnow in all likelihood given the rapid deepening occurring just offshore and the generally insane dynamics across the board. Let's hope it's not too wrapped up. This winter is all over NYC, it's almost like DC Baltimore was last year. You'll be well above average for the season after this storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 No. Too early. And no support for this solution..yet. I wouldn't necessarily say that. There is decent support for a warning event right now... watches only require 50% confidence... and we are getting within 48 hours... so watches may well go up tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just hoping the GFS comes in line with this. Though this run of the NAM is VERY consistent with earlier runs (save the crappy 18z run)..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 00z being 8pm eastern? and going till around noon wednesday? 7PM standard time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Brand new from OKX .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... QUICK COMMENT ON 18Z NAM/GFS/21Z SREF/00Z NAM RELATIVE TO POTENTIALLY POTENT COASTAL LOW IMPACTING THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHEN TAKING AS A COLLECTIVE WHOLE...THERE IS NOTHING IN THERE TO SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE PREVIOUS THINKING. THE MAIN THING TO NOTE IS THAT THEY HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF IDEA OF THE LOW BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES US...WHERE AS BEFORE THIS GROUP OF MODELS HELD OFF ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION UNTIL AFTER THE LOW WAS MOVING AWAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 PT was impressed with the OZ NAM check his update: http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 00z being 8pm eastern? and going till around noon wednesday? 00z is 7PM right now. But yeah, those general hours. Maybe starts a bit later than 7PM in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IS RUNNING HIGH...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF MUCH GREATER TOTALS WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP...MUCH TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. HWO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS POTENTIAL... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WATCHES COULD BE RAISED OVERNIGHT. Oh. I miscounted. So, there is a good chance of watches going up tonight. But I was talking about how there's no support for this extreme solution. There is definitely high confidence for warning criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just hoping the GFS comes in line with this. Though this run of the NAM is VERY consistent with earlier runs (save the crappy 18z run)..... Till I see the GFS and EC go full blown I am going to assume this NAM is overdone at least toward the west. I don't think PHL gets another foot... despite what this NAM says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On a side note - How come it always seems that storms start earlier then the models show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Till I see the GFS and EC go full blown I am going to assume this NAM is overdone at least toward the west. I don't think PHL gets another foot... despite what this NAM says. Agreed, this storm really looks like its threading the needle and im under the impression that the storm does not come together quick enough for places S and W of NYC..... this is based just on experience EDIT: Though with that said i will note that it was the NAM who really held serve with the more eastern track of the Boxer day storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ray, your just don't want to have to book another flight out here. Though until I see the rest of the 0Z suite, I tend to agree with your statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 PT was impressed with the OZ NAM check his update: http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ He is calling for 60-70 inches in the City with a very active February and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On a side note - How come it always seems that storms start earlier then the models show? That's a model bias generally associated with warm advection precipitation. That being said, I don't recall any storms starting much earlier than forecast recently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 And now for the amazing image of the night, the NAM is placing a strong frontogenically forced deformation band directly overhead New York City on tonight's run. Prolific snowfall totals would ensue...as would thundersnow in all likelihood given the rapid deepening occurring just offshore and the generally insane dynamics across the board. Let's hope it's not too wrapped up. I love your commentary and analysis of the model runs! Keep up the great work...it's much appreciated!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ray, your just don't want to have to book another flight out here. Though until I see the rest of the 0Z suite, I tend to agree with your statement. I'm working most of the week so that's not an option. And from what I've heard the airlines are gonna be a mess by Tuesday anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Till I see the GFS and EC go full blown I am going to assume this NAM is overdone at least toward the west. I don't think PHL gets another foot... despite what this NAM says. just dont fly back. ttn will do fine then..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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