joey Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The 850 low reforms just east of the NJ coast and then goes SE of LI. That's a nearly perfect track for the city to get heavy deformation snows. Correct. 10 Miles north, and C NJ// South shore LI may have some initial sleet issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That is not rain for anyone west of Moriches and away from South Jersey. NYC is golden on that run. As is Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 The precip max is 1.62" right on top of NYC through 63. I guess we found the ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If this were a perfect prog, dry air aloft would come in over L.I. and that could change snow to freezing rain over Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If this were a perfect prog, dry air aloft would come in over L.I. and that could change snow to freezing rain over Long Island. For Eastern Suffolk verbatim, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 it's nice to see that this happened when all of the s/w's involved moved into the conus' domain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Close to 1.75 max over eastern Nassau county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The weather Gods obviously want to test the BLOOMBERG admin. B/c if this comes true and the city screws up again- bloomberg might be impeached.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I just spilled a bowl of New England man chowder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The weather Gods obviously want to test the BLOOMBERG admin. B/c if this comes true and the city screws up again- bloomberg might be impeached.. Can anyone explain to a novice why the western extent/gradient of the heavy precip is so steep? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I thought 12/26's synoptics were beautiful, but this isn't anything to sneeze at. Definitely something to watch very closely. Cutting it close for the close in terms of precip issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 it's nice to see that this happened when all of the s/w's involved moved into the conus' domain hmm where have we seen this before? The lack of precip and weak surface low depicted my models days ago did seem a little weird given the potential h5 set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Can anyone explain to a novice why the western extent/gradient of the heavy precip is so steep? sinking air just outside of the area of massive lift which gives the coast such prodigious totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ewall is showing precip maximum over NYC with over 1.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 phil to hartford crushed, not sure about boston maybe mix or dryslot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well it can go 1 of 2 ways from here as I see it. Trend east and/or weaker with less snow, or come west with precip issues for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Can anyone explain to a novice why the western extent/gradient of the heavy precip is so steep? That is the case with frictional convergence on the northwest side of the low, notice that rarely happens on the eastern side of the low. Of course that would mean rain there, and no one cares about rain gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Can anyone explain to a novice why the western extent/gradient of the heavy precip is so steep? This is a Miller B system. The energy transfers and the system goes kaboom. That's the biggest thing to worry about... how quickly can that happen. And also, of course, that this is the NAM beyond 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 is that total qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 through 66 hrs the nam on the 30km is .97 for phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Vort positioning on the NAM is just great for NYC, puts us in the best mesoscale banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So now - the NAM is progging 1-2 feet of snow from central NJ, NYC, western LI, SENY, up into CT... hmm - can LI miss the deform band twice in 2 weeks??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Can anyone explain to a novice why the western extent/gradient of the heavy precip is so steep? Yes, I would like to know as well Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Better sampling, and possibly like John said earlier, questions will be answered tonight. That CCB drops .75-1.00 in 6 hours with more after. Ridonculous !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 One to store in your archives.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 through 66 hrs the nam on the 30km is .97 for phl how about for the burbs and leheigh valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Better sampling, and possibly like John said earlier, questions will be answered tonight. That CCB drops .75-1.00 in 6 hours with more after. Ridonculous !!!!! We saw the NAM and GFS show mega QPF dumps like that prior to 12/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yep, 1.50-1.75" at 72 hours for NYC Total QPF, still some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is a Miller B system. The energy transfers and the system goes kaboom. That's the biggest thing to worry about... how quickly can that happen. And also, of course, that this is the NAM beyond 48 hours So for South Central PA to get into the heavier stuff I guess I would want to see the initial s/w dig a little farther south so the coastal gets going quicker/further south and is drawn tight along the coast or slightly inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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