baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I didn't get much further south than Glacier in Montana although I did get into some of the Rocky Mountain Front to the southwest of Browning, which was gorgeous. Montana definitely has some of the most interesting weather patterns, with dramatic contrasts between searingly hot and dry days and summertime snowfalls in the high peaks. I haven't been to much of the other states you mentioned, but I spent some time camping this summer in the Wasatch/Uinta Ranges outside of Salt Lake City, and Utah definitely made its mark on me. Certainly a different forest mix there due to the abundance of precipitation from frequent lake effect/upslope snowfalls. Definitely a neat area. The region in the Uintas and higher Wasatch is lovely. The forests become a little sparse on south facing slopes in the lower elevations though since they get torched by the hot southern sun. Alaska has the greatest mountains in the US of course. The Alaska Range and some of the other coastal ranges make the CONUS ranges look silly in size and height. I definitely want to go there soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 When it comes to Miller B storms DEC 30 2000 and JAN 27/28 2004 stand out as the most rapid intensification of heavy snowfall I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You mean today's 12z? Dude, you need some sleep lol Strongly agree...I am about to dive onto my bed faster than the NAM has the pressures dropping over Nantucket Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It took the GFS 3-4 iterations of improvements a couple days ago to adjust the surface fields. I think the GFS will trend a bit NW given the closed 500mb low; that's got to have some tug back towards the coastline. This would make it fall in line with the ECM in terms of placement and QPF, with NYC getting .75-1" QPF. I'm not too worried about what the GFS surface maps show because the trends aloft have been very impressive, and I like to use the E-E rule...if the ECM and NAM (old ETA) are in agreement at a short range about a track and general banding, then that's what to go with. I think the 12z GFS will show this to be the case as it moves in line with the other mesoscale models. Definitely a neat area. The region in the Uintas and higher Wasatch is lovely. The forests become a little sparse on south facing slopes in the lower elevations though since they get torched by the hot southern sun. Alaska has the greatest mountains in the US of course. The Alaska Range and some of the other coastal ranges make the CONUS ranges look silly in size and height. I definitely want to go there soon. Yes, there was a dramatic cut-off in the forest coverage between my campground at 7000' elevation in the Mirror Lake National Recreation Area and the town of Kamas, UT around 6000' where I did my shopping, Internet, and dining. I was pretty impressed with the forests in the upper elevations though, seemed like a nice mix of aspen, spruces, and pines. The climate was dramatically cooler with the increase in elevation, and most days in the mountains only touched lower 70s for highs and got into the 35-40F range at night for the lows. I found the forest and climate to be more beautiful than the harsher landscape/climate of Montana, where the weather had been foul for most of the summer honestly. I have never been to AK, and I don't have a ton of money right now so it might have to wait a few years, but I'll definitely get there. I'd love to do some kayaking around the Tongass National Forest and then do some hiking in Denali, eventually making my way to Gates of the Arctic and the Brooks Range if I have the time, money, and resources. It would be cool to see the final frontier of the Rockies and experience such an intense alpine landscape. AK is also beautiful in the winter, as I have a friend from Anchorage who skis at Alyeska and always sends me photos....the dramatic rugged peaks covered in feet of snow are impressive, with such clear views of the night sky and cosmos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Strongly agree...I am about to dive onto my bed faster than the NAM has the pressures dropping over Nantucket Wednesday The GFS seems to linger light snows over NYC for longer this run, but it still results in about the same with .5" QPF falling. The GFS won't pick up on banding at this range, however, so we're generally looking at a 6-8" snowfall based on this track for the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The GFS seems to linger light snows over NYC for longer this run, but it still results in about the same with .5" QPF falling. The GFS won't pick up on banding at this range, however, so we're generally looking at a 6-8" snowfall based on this track for the metro area. these lingering light snows never seem to work out for us-- for example, with the last storm, at the start of the storm, the GFS had us progged for 30 hours of snow, and we got 24 hours.... basically it switched off as soon as the heavier echoes moved away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 these lingering light snows never seem to work out for us-- for example, with the last storm, at the start of the storm, the GFS had us progged for 30 hours of snow, and we got 24 hours.... basically it switched off as soon as the heavier echoes moved away. The problem is the NW winds that tend to take over as the storm pulls out, drying the air out. Multiple frames of .01" QPF rarely work out for NYC but can result in feet of snow up in the Green Mountains, LOL. Elevation FTW on light intensity/long duration events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Sorry if this is slightly off topic but after this event, the 6z GFS shows another light snowfall possible with an arctic front coming through over the weekend: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The problem is the NW winds that tend to take over as the storm pulls out, drying the air out. Multiple frames of .01" QPF rarely work out for NYC but can result in feet of snow up in the Green Mountains, LOL. Elevation FTW on light intensity/long duration events. Yup, this is part of the reason the mtns can maintain snow cover even when we have days of dry and cold nw winds-- they can still get the occasional squall off the lakes. This actually happens quite a bit in the Poconos. They dont get the heavy snowfall rates of the Great Lakes regions, but you'd be surprised how hours upon hours of light snow adds up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I know this well from our vacation home at 1500' in the Northern Poconos...the 75"/year snowfall average comes mostly from the persistent light events. I often remember waking up in the morning as a kid to be greeted by a fresh 1-2" of snow even when there was no storm in the vicinity...leftover lake effect and very weak clippers can have an impact in the Allegheny Plateau that other areas don't feel. There was a clipper in January 2009 that dumped 11" at my house while Scranton, only 50 miles to the southwest in the valley, saw less than 1". The pattern has been too suppressed for the Poconos lately, though...they need more coastal huggers and SW flow events. My house in Westchester has actually been doing better than our vacation cottage at 1500' in NE PA these past couple of winters. Shocking really. Yeah, I get excited over those litle events-- because when I come back home to the usual clear blue skies with nw winds, it just seems really boring. Just to see consistent snowfall for hours on end without anything really showing up on the radar is pretty amazing and something we're not used to. Wow, thats unbelievable that your house in NE PA hasnt been cashing in-- what about the Feb 26 event last year? I would have thought they did well with the retrograder. I wonder what kind of snowfall totals we'd have out of Ocean and Monmouth Counties if (like they have on the west coast) there were mountains all the way up to the water. I imagine, someone down there would have had well over 100 inches of snow last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Man, this thread went to hell in the last hour and a half. There's a banter thread for a reason, folks. If you want to have an IM conversation about the Poconos, do it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looking at the models this morning, I don't see any reason to change what I have. 3-6 for Philly Metro, 6-10 for NYC Metro. GFS and Euro are in too good of agreement to significantly deviate from their forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Seems reasonable at this point... Though I have to ask....how do you feel about the 'potential' for the GFS to explode over the next two runs, based on the H5 trends from the 6z run? Looking at the models this morning, I don't see any reason to change what I have. 3-6 for Philly Metro, 6-10 for NYC Metro. GFS and Euro are in too good of agreement to significantly deviate from their forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Seems reasonable at this point... Though I have to ask....how do you feel about the 'potential' for the GFS to explode over the next two runs, based on the H5 trends from the 6z run? I didn't see any trends. When I was flipping back and forth between the last four models runs, I saw little to no difference in what is being modeled in the GFS. http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/CurrentModelCreep.cgi?model=GFS&type=500_GPHTMPVORT&datetime=2011011006Z&fcsthour=48 Is there a chance the NAM is right? Sure. But I'd rather take the more stable global models at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br />Looking at the models this morning, I don't see any reason to change what I have. 3-6 for Philly Metro, 6-10 for NYC Metro. GFS and Euro are in too good of agreement to significantly deviate from their forecasts.<br /><br /><br /><br />Although some here may disagree,this is a significant hit for NYC.If we reach 10 inches,to have 2 10 inch snowfalls in a NINA like this one is going to be unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I am starting to lean toward 6-10 for NYC, considering the agreement of the Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I am starting to lean toward 6-10 for NYC, considering the agreement of the Euro and GFS. I'm going 7.8 for NYC right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm going 7.8 for NYC right now! That will put NYC past its average seasonal snow on Jan 12! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looking at the models this morning, I don't see any reason to change what I have. 3-6 for Philly Metro, 6-10 for NYC Metro. GFS and Euro are in too good of agreement to significantly deviate from their forecasts. I'm going 7.8 for NYC right now! Where do you guys think the jackpot with this storm will be and how much? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 HPC Bullish: Issued 08Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Even if its 8 or 12 inches, wed mornings commute is going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Issued 08Z Seems pretty reasonable to me, implying ~50% of >8" over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Where do you guys think the jackpot with this storm will be and how much? Thanks! I think the jackpot will be somewhere in SNE west or southwest of BOS with 14-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Rib and I decided to split the threads again, since NYC looks to be in better shape than PHL. The new threads are pinned to the top of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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