earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wow..UVV's are exploding at 51 hours. I would be surprised if this wasn't a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What are the chances of a NYC/LI Blizzard watch? Poor, Fair, Good or excellent? The winds will not be as strong with this one, nor will last as long as the December blizzard, so my answer to this one would be 'poor'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like 12z at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Significantly west at 51 1008 50 mi east of mouth of Cheseapeke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 She's tucked in closer to the coast near Hatteras on this run at 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 48 hr this looks fantastic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18Z NAM: 00Z NAM: This should be further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wow..UVV's are exploding at 51 hours. I would be surprised if this wasn't a big hit. It's definitely developing faster and coming farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Storm is just east of Cape May at 54 hours..UVV's are expansive and very favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 And boom goes the dynamite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We are also in A very favorable left exit region of a jet streak at 250 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 57 hours is going to send this board into mayhem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Heavy snow PHL-NYC at 57 hours..huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Storm is just east of Cape May at 54 hours..UVV's are expansive and very favorable. that's close - shore communities must mix no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 CCB still hammering away 60 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 that's close - shore communities must mix no? Yeah, verbatim, there are going to be a lot of p-type issues as you get close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Reminder, folks, IMBY posts go in the banter thread, especially while the model is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 wow hr 54!! intense lifting/explosion from the coastal sfc low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 60 hours has a historical deformation band sitting directly over NYC with 0.75" liquid in 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Man, I can't believe the coast changes back to snow with that track. Dynamic cooling FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So the storm comes west, but at the same time the western gradient tightens up. I realize it's just one one and will probably change, but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 60 hours has a historical deformation band sitting directly over NYC with 0.75" liquid in 6 hrs I'd be wary, 850 low transfers a little too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br />60 hours has a historical deformation band sitting directly over NYC with 0.75" liquid in 6 hrs<br /><br /><br /><br />Unbelievable. Nice large scale synoptic forcing at all levels. Check out 250 mb when you get a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 63 hours the deformation band is just pounding CT..SE NY..SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So the storm comes west, but at the same time the western gradient tightens up. I realize it's just one one and will probably change, but.... Well someone correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it true that the stronger the storm is the tighter the western gradient will be? Awesome NAM run btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think the 15z and 21z SREF's were onto something...eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'd be wary, 850 low transfers a little too close for comfort. The 850 low reforms just east of the NJ coast and then goes SE of LI. That's a nearly perfect track for the city to get heavy deformation snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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