CAT5ANDREW Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br />Yeah, I could easily have 30" on the season after this event, which is excellent for January 12th. If anyone had told me this fall I would have this much snow with such cold temperatures during a strong La Niña winter, I wouldn't have believed them for a second. It's amazing how all the ponds and lakes in Westchester are frozen over, how many days we've had with high temperatures below freezing, how consistent the snow pack has been since the December 26th storm. This is one of the most unrelentingly awesome winters I can remember.<br /><br /><br /><br />The cold looks very dominant...I'm thinking NYC could see single digit low temperatures after the arctic front comes through, as we have a massive PV in Canada pouring in the cold air, and the 0z GFS shows us approaching -20C at 850mb, which is plenty cold with a fresh snowpack. That event could also give us some snow squalls, or even a southern wave forming along the front, to enhance our snow totals. It's interesting that the teleconnectors are basically reversed since we're in a semi-permanent high-latitude blocking state: a strong La Niña and +QBO is actually good for us since it's strengthening the polar vortex and cooling the globe off, which is allowing frigid airmasses to reach us compared to the moderate ones we had in a strong El Niño last year. And none of the models really show the blocking breaking down for any substantial length of time. We're basically in the perfect pattern. <img src="http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/default/thumbsupsmileyanim.gif" /><br /><br /><br /><br />If it was not for the deeply negative -AO/-NAO last winter,we would have torched for sure.After JAN 15th,we only had 4 days at or below freezing here the rest of the wionter and only 1 such day in FEB.After the cold snap at the end of JAN,it was mild for the rest of the winter.THe big snow at the end of FEB was gone in a week. I am not suprised at the cold winter we are having.NINA events are much different with a -NAO.1988-89,1998-99 and 2007-08 should never have been thought of as analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> I am enjoying it Alex after the 48 90+ days IMBY last year.It makes the hottest summer on record somewhat worth going through if this is the end result.Nothing sucks more than a brutal hot summer followed by a non winter. What I would love would be a 2000/2009 summer followed by a winter like we are having.That would be heaven for me. Yeah this has basically been the perfect year for me great winter ---> scorching summer ----> great winter lol, the scorching summer analogs worked out yet again for leading to snowy winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah this has basically been the perfect year for me great winter ---> scorching summer ----> great winter lol, the scorching summer analogs worked out yet again for leading to snowy winters Strongly agree...I was close to heaven five times the past 12-14 months...Yankees win WS Nov 09...Feb 10, Feb 26, Early July arizona-like heat wave where I sat in the pool for 4 days straight, December 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 just sayin. many of the higher snowfall events in my area (nw nj) have taken place when the sfc low takes a track well inside the bechmark. IF the NAM is right, we are in for a treat. I do think LI is in for some mixing issues tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br />Strongly agree...I was close to heaven five times the past 12-14 months...Yankees win WS Nov 09...Feb 10, Feb 26, Early July arizona-like heat wave where I sat in the pool for 4 days straight, December 26<br /><br /><br /><br />working for the MTA in subways which in some stations reached over 130 degrees was not pleasant at all.I was a constant pool of sweat from June until Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I want to say, did the DGEX score a coup on this one?? It had is way out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> working for the MTA in subways which in some stations reached over 130 degrees was not pleasant at all.I was a constant pool of sweat from June until Sept. I'm so glad I lived in Northern Montana this summer. This picture was taken on June 30th at Logan Pass in Glacier National Park: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> working for the MTA in subways which in some stations reached over 130 degrees was not pleasant at all.I was a constant pool of sweat from June until Sept. I hope you had a fan!!! I used to work in the studios at WNBC in NYC as a wx producer and with all the warm lights, they kept the temps in the rooms like 40F. It was nice...save the winter. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br />I'm so glad I lived in Northern Montana this summer. This picture was taken on June 30th at Logan Pass in Glacier National Park:<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Great Picture!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br />I hope you had a fan!!! I used to work in the studios at WNBC in NYC as a wx producer and with all the warm lights, they kept the temps in the rooms like 40F. It was nice...save the winter. LOL.<br /><br /><br /><br />The Motormans cabs are supposed to be Air Conditioned but they were not at there best.Many times,I had to leave the cab door open to get some of the cooler air from where the passengers sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 so, who's doing the GFS pbp?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm so glad I lived in Northern Montana this summer. This picture was taken on June 30th at Logan Pass in Glacier National Park: I love the mountains! Mountain weather is the coolest weather to forecast, imo. Glacier is amazing too. Montana has some of the greatest mountain ranges and widely varying. The Bridgers, Bitterroots, Beartooth Range, MIssions, etc etc. My favorite mountain states are probably California, Colorado, Montana, and Idaho. Idaho has a gem hidden out there...the Sawtooths. Teton Like but with way less tourism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Strongly agree...I was close to heaven five times the past 12-14 months...Yankees win WS Nov 09...Feb 10, Feb 26, Early July arizona-like heat wave where I sat in the pool for 4 days straight, December 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> The Motormans cabs are supposed to be Air Conditioned but they were not at there best.Many times,I had to leave the cab door open to get some of the cooler air from where the passengers sit. LOL, this reminds me of the time i had at the nws Lake Charles, LA where it was hot as balls there and the temp in the OP area was set at 78F and i had to bring in a fan to keep me cool. It was insane! The ppl in the S can deal with the heat a lot better than we can up here that is for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I want to say, did the DGEX score a coup on this one?? It had is way out!! dont forget the NOGAPS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS looks way better compared to it's 00z run...not going to be the NAM, but definitely went that way a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm so glad I lived in Northern Montana this summer. This picture was taken on June 30th at Logan Pass in Glacier National Park: I know you were upset you missed out on that historic July heatwave, that's why Im glad you came back just in time for the early September historic heatwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br />LOL, this reminds me of the time i had at the nws Lake Charles, LA where it was hot as balls there and the temp in the OP area was set at 78F and i had to bring in a fan to keep me cool. It was insane! The ppl in the S can deal with the heat a lot better than we can up here that is for sure!<br /><br /><br /><br />My relatives in Louisville KY had 88 days of 90+ temps and that was to much for them to handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 dont forget the NOGAPS! Amazing!! That model sucks and it may have picked up on this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS @ 42 looks to be well east ..east of 00z as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Shortwave is insane at 48 hours..but the GFS just won't pull it NW like the mesoscale models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 LOL, this reminds me of the time i had at the nws Lake Charles, LA where it was hot as balls there and the temp in the OP area was set at 78F and i had to bring in a fan to keep me cool. It was insane! The ppl in the S can deal with the heat a lot better than we can up here that is for sure! Remember how we were talking about "pure" heat coming off of NW downslopping low humidity vs "polluted" humid southerly wind heat.... haha seems like eons ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Some how it manages to come back west then though by 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 All I have to say is LOL at the GFS given it's trends aloft. IF, and I repeat...IF..the GFS were to continue the H5 trends of it's 00z and 06z runs tomorrow at 12z, it would probably go bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 just sayin. many of the higher snowfall events in my area (nw nj) have taken place when the sfc low takes a track well inside the bechmark. IF the NAM is right, we are in for a treat. I do think LI is in for some mixing issues tho. Well, as long as its just the east end a la millenium storm. Those guys dont care about snow anyway, they just care about fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 All I have to say is LOL at the GFS given it's trends aloft. IF, and I repeat...IF..the GFS were to continue the H5 trends of it's 00z and 06z runs tomorrow at 12z, it would probably go bonkers. And the confluence was much weaker as well. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I love the mountains! Mountain weather is the coolest weather to forecast, imo. Glacier is amazing too. Montana has some of the greatest mountain ranges and widely varying. The Bridgers, Bitterroots, Beartooth Range, MIssions, etc etc. My favorite mountain states are probably California, Colorado, Montana, and Idaho. Idaho has a gem hidden out there...the Sawtooths. Teton Like but with way less tourism. I didn't get much further south than Glacier in Montana although I did get into some of the Rocky Mountain Front to the southwest of Browning, which was gorgeous. Montana definitely has some of the most interesting weather patterns, with dramatic contrasts between searingly hot and dry days and summertime snowfalls in the high peaks. I haven't been to much of the other states you mentioned, but I spent some time camping this summer in the Wasatch/Uinta Ranges outside of Salt Lake City, and Utah definitely made its mark on me. Certainly a different forest mix there due to the abundance of precipitation from frequent lake effect/upslope snowfalls. I know you were upset you missed out on that historic July heatwave, that's why Im glad you came back just in time for the early September historic heatwave It would have been interesting to experience the July heatwave, but frankly I'm quite glad I wasn't here for both of those events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well, as long as its just the east end a la millenium storm. Those guys dont care about snow anyway, they just care about fishing. ask William :-O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 All I have to say is LOL at the GFS given it's trends aloft. IF, and I repeat...IF..the GFS were to continue the H5 trends of it's 00z and 06z runs tomorrow at 12z, it would probably go bonkers. It took the GFS 3-4 iterations of improvements aloft a couple days ago to adjust the surface fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 All I have to say is LOL at the GFS given it's trends aloft. IF, and I repeat...IF..the GFS were to continue the H5 trends of it's 00z and 06z runs tomorrow at 12z, it would probably go bonkers. You mean today's 12z? Dude, you need some sleep lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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