CAT5ANDREW Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br />1/11/91 was a severe short term bust...the 6-12 forecast turned into 3-5 with sleet and then rain<br /><br /><br /><br />What happened with that storm? I remember it started snowing around 9AM and it got heavy for about 20 minutes,then backed to a more light to moderate snowfall which I knew was the end of any blockbuster storm.I got 5 inches before the rain.WHile it was dissapointing for sure,the fact that we got over 25 inches here in a TOP 10 warmest winter was still good.We had 2 storms over 6 inches of snow (DEC 28 1990-FEB 26 1991) which was fantastic for those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On another note..the RUC is digging the 540 height line down towards the TX panhandle...that's further south than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I would probably pay somebody if they could make ARW4 verify The ARW looks to be closest in line with the globals for this storm, whereas the NMM appears to be well east of the rest of guidance. Earthlight, do you have the Upton snowfall forecast accumulation map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 SG, I wonder if we had so many busts back then going the wrong way (that is, from snow to rain or snow to whiff) because of the opposite reason the models are having them now-- that is, now the models are having problems with the severe nature of the block, and back then maybe it was the amazingly positive nao they had troubles with. They were having big problems with Miller B type scenarios...1/11/91 was similar to 12/14/03 except for the fact the 2003 event was correctly forecast...the models always seemed to want to pop the coastal too soon and too far east on alot of the 1980s and early 90s events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br />here are the 3z sref indiv ens runs tot precip<br /><br /><img src="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PCNTOTNE_3z/f87.gif" /><br /><br /><br /><br />ANybody who complains about this solution if it verifies is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thanks so much, John...it looks quite similar to the map I just posted in the forecast thread...We both seem to be thinking the sweet spot is central CT and Suffolk County in LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 if we are going to whip out the hr 17 of the ruc, might as well pull out tony's model the fim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BRIEF RIDGING OCCURS AT ALL LEVELS AS TROUGH DEPARTS. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID WEST AND MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHTER WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACT ON OUR CWA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A ECMWF/SREF/GFS BLEND HERE...WITH EMPHASIS ON OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THAT SOLUTION CLUSTERS WELL WITH GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES OVERALL. NAM IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE WITH REGARD TO TRACK. NEITHER CAN BE DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FROM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NORTHEASTWARD. THIS OCCURS AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. NAM IS SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE...THUS THE WESTERN TRACK. AGAIN...THIS COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD CLUSTERED GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. BY DOING THAT...LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. EVEN WESTERN TRACK OF THE NAM PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DUE TO THE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS STRONGER WINDS BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM THE NORTH. A MIXTURE ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS WOULD OCCUR IN A NAM SOLUTION WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN RAIN/SNOW MIX AND HEAVY SNOW JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL LI. DUE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...AND FRONTOGENESIS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTENSE STORM...BANDING AND HEAVIER PRECIP A GOOD BET. ASSUMING A TRACK NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF TOTAL FROM NYC EAST. IF NAM IS CORRECT...A SHIFT IN THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP TO THE WEST WOULD BE WARRANTED...PLACING BULLSEYE FROM AROUND NYC NORTH AND WEST. AT THIS TIME...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH...BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED FAST TRACK TO THE SYSTEM...WOULD EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY. LI AND SRN CT WOULD HOLD ON TO THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER...BUT WILL BUT NOT GET TOO DETAILED WITH REGARD TO TIMING YET AS UPPER TROUGH STILL TRIGGERS LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...THUS HAMPERING ANY CLEANUP EFFORTS. LOOKING FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES GENERALLY. OF COURSE HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER BANDS WHICH IS TOUGH TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT. AMOUNTS COULD BE TEMPERED IF A MIX OCCURS OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 if we are going to whip out the hr 17 of the ruc, might as well pull out tony's model the fim Limp weenies everywhere on the ol' reliable fim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <img src="http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormTotalPrecip/StormTotalSnowFcst.png" /> How can anybody complain about this should it verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How can anybody complain about this should it verify? If I did get the 7.3 OKX forecasts..I would hit 40 inches on the season on January 12th, which is absolutely ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Will ORH is in the house...still recovering from the NAM giving you 2" QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 heres the 0z ggem ens mean at hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Will ORH is in the house...still recovering from the NAM giving you 2" QPF? Lol...if only I could actually believe that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If I did get the 7.3 OKX forecasts..I would hit 40 inches on the season on January 12th, which is absolutely ridiculous. I actually think most of us will get 10 inches or slightly more.... so you would rival 1995 - 1996 in the start to a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If I did get the 7.3 OKX forecasts..I would hit 40 inches on the season on January 12th, which is absolutely ridiculous. Exactly,thats my whole point.You understand it and appreciate it. BTW You are going to be an Excellent Meteorologist.Joe Montana/Emmit Smith/Jerry Rice type Excellent.Your discussions are articulate and your analysis is brilliant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I actually think most of us will get 10 inches or slightly more.... so you would rival Jan 1996 in the start to a season. 13 inches (which may be a stretch but not out of the realm of possibility) would get me to 35" for the season, which is already considerably above normal. 45" would practically be a given if the pattern persists, if not 50+ for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Whatever does fall is not going anywhere as the cold is going to be dominant for the remainder of the month.There is a excellent chance we go the entire JAN with snowcover.Who would have belived that in a robust NINA winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Whatever does fall is not going anywhere as the cold is going to be dominant for the remainder of the month.There is a excellent chance we go the entire JAN with snowcover.Who would have belived that in a robust NINA winter? Plus there's talk about a possible nice "refresher" event over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Lol...if only I could actually believe that model. I will add that this reminds me of past setups where mesoscale models performed better than globals, so its possible something like the NAM could work out...but even if they perform better, still doesn't guarantee that they are not overdone on qpf and still a bit too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br />13 inches (which may be a stretch but not out of the realm of possibility) would get me to 35" for the season, which is already considerably above normal. 45" would practically be a given if the pattern persists, if not 50+ for the winter.<br /><br /><br /><br />I am really happy for you jm.You more than anyone else on the NYC forum deserve this snowfest.You went through some awful winters in Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This run still really hammers a good majority of NE NJ..NYC..LI..and SW CT with strong frontogenic forcing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I will add that this reminds me of past setups where mesoscale models performed better than globals, so its possible something like the NAM could work out...but even if they perform better, still doesn't guarantee that they are not overdone on qpf and still a bit too amped. Agree...and good luck up your way. I know you've been starving for a biggie. This could be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Exactly,thats my whole point.You understand it and appreciate it. BTW You are going to be an Excellent Meteorologist.Joe Montana/Emmit Smith/Jerry Rice type Excellent.Your discussions are articulate and your analysis is brilliant. Yeah, I could easily have 30" on the season after this event, which is excellent for January 12th. If anyone had told me this fall I would have this much snow with such cold temperatures during a strong La Niña winter, I wouldn't have believed them for a second. It's amazing how all the ponds and lakes in Westchester are frozen over, how many days we've had with high temperatures below freezing, how consistent the snow pack has been since the December 26th storm. This is one of the most unrelentingly awesome winters I can remember. Whatever does fall is not going anywhere as the cold is going to be dominant for the remainder of the month.There is a excellent chance we go the entire JAN with snowcover.Who would have belived that in a robust NINA winter? The cold looks very dominant...I'm thinking NYC could see single digit low temperatures after the arctic front comes through, as we have a massive PV in Canada pouring in the cold air, and the 0z GFS shows us approaching -20C at 850mb, which is plenty cold with a fresh snowpack. That event could also give us some snow squalls, or even a southern wave forming along the front, to enhance our snow totals. It's interesting that the teleconnectors are basically reversed since we're in a semi-permanent high-latitude blocking state: a strong La Niña and +QBO is actually good for us since it's strengthening the polar vortex and cooling the globe off, which is allowing frigid airmasses to reach us compared to the moderate ones we had in a strong El Niño last year. And none of the models really show the blocking breaking down for any substantial length of time. We're basically in the perfect pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Agree...and good luck up your way. I know you've been starving for a biggie. This could be it. Thanks, but I'm not expecting this one to be a true big one (>18")...I'll be pretty pleased if I crack a foot. If everything works perfectly, then yeah it could end up getting bigger, but never good to get expectations up in an imperfect setup for a big one. If a NAM solution happens we get the 5h to catpure the low just as its trying to exit stage right and prolong the storm for 6-8 hours, then thats how we could get larger totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br />Plus there's talk about a possible nice "refresher" event over the weekend.<br /><br /><br /><br />I am enjoying it Alex after the 48 90+ days IMBY last year.It makes the hottest summer on record somewhat worth going through if this is the end result.Nothing sucks more than a brutal hot summer followed by a non winter. What I would love would be a 2000/2009 summer followed by a winter like we are having.That would be heaven for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> I am enjoying it Alex after the 48 90+ days IMBY last year.It makes the hottest summer on record somewhat worth going through if this is the end result.Nothing sucks more than a brutal hot summer followed by a non winter. What I would love would be a 2000/2009 summer followed by a winter like we are having.That would be heaven for me. I think the majority of forecasters this year are starting to lean towards a cooler than normal summer. Second-year La Niña summers are often cool like 2008, 1974, and 1956. Especially if we maintain a big blocking regime as we had during 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Exactly,thats my whole point.You understand it and appreciate it. BTW You are going to be an Excellent Meteorologist.Joe Montana/Emmit Smith/Jerry Rice type Excellent.Your discussions are articulate and your analysis is brilliant. Thanks bud, but I still have a whole ton to learn. Good luck with the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Awesome dynamic event. Hopefully the "fringe banding" argument can work for me again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.