Ababa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We believe it if the other models start to come around and it scores the coup. Right now its pretty much out on its own bringing hecs to cpk. I dunno if it makes a difference up here but down in sc the afd there has them upping snow totals due to storm being jucier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Closed off at H5 36 hours....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 still closing the h5 low off earlier than most models, closed at hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's less amplified with the northern stream but it's trying to back the height field along the east coast. Will probably end up southeast of 00z with less QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We believe it if the other models start to come around and it scores the coup. Right now its pretty much out on its own bringing hecs to cpk. I dunno if it makes a difference up here but down in sc the afd there has them upping snow totals due to storm being jucier than expected. like ray said, the southern storm is not the main players, its the northern stream coming in from the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Any more goodies on euro long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 But if it does do we believe it more then than tonight's 0z? Anyone wanna chime in? yes i would think then you might want to give it a little more credit than tonights run, since below 48 hrs before the event tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Any more goodies on euro long range? it changes from run to run, ji...but 0z had swfe...then cold front working east that develops a wave on it at hr 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 still closing the h5 low off earlier than most models, closed at hr 36 Seems to be playing catchup a bit now through 39 hrs to the 00z run..but the northern stream dug slightly less which should let this run end up less amplified and south/east I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Seems to be playing catchup a bit now through 39 hrs to the 00z run..but the northern stream dug slightly less which should let this run end up less amplified and south/east I would guess. yea it should be further se, but it will prob have more qpf than all of the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Definitely further southeast and a bit weaker through 42 hrs...less expansive UVV's and probably a slower developing CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's trying to tuck northwest again at 45 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Definitely further southeast and a bit weaker through 42 hrs...less expansive UVV's and probably a slower developing CCB its prob going to start ripping at hr 48...the primary is starting to get absorbed into the coastal as the h5 low is affects are being felt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 lol 88 users at 315, geez yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 48 mod to hvy snow breaking out over balt just at dc and delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 These bands are always the wild card in dynamic systems like this, and numerous times the models smooth the QPF too much without maxing the areas with the heaviest bands enough. I was supposed to get more snow from most models on 12/26, but parts of eastern NJ beat me by up to 10" from the dynamic band that sat overhead. Same for 2/12/06 (although I wasn't here at the time). When the low isn't bombing and it's mostly just overrunning, the banding signatures aren't as prevalent and it's more of a widespread mod-heavy snow that isn't as heavy as the bands present in a bombing low, but also without the mins surrounding the band. The models are coming closer to making it a dynamic system here and are moving away from a heavier overrunning storm that doesn't develop the banding until New England. The question is the track of the coastal and how much influence the primary holds. Great post! This is the most important thing: the models have trended away from the CCB developing too late with only overrunning snows for NYC...we're getting a consensus that the low will close off to our south and deliver a substantial hit from the CCB. None of the models really shows anything less than 6" snowfall for NYC, as even the GGEM with around .4" QPF would probably do it with high ratios as the storm is further east and thus probably colder. Every big coastal has banding, and the models never really figure it out well: just look at 12/19/09, where over 20" fell in Central LI and SE CT whereas I barely made 8" despite being shown to get over an inch of QPF. Or the 12/26 storm...NWS had a uniform 20-24" for the NYC metro, but in reality some folks got over 30" and the unlucky ones, like me, got 12-15", which is still pretty lucky anyway. Euro ensembles essentially in agreement with the OP. I don't usually make these posts..but my hunch is that this is going to end up nearer to the ECMWF or GFS solution. The NAM is absolutely notorious for doing things like this with these type of storms---I don't have the greatest feeling about the fact that it's going to pull off the coup here. I like a more moderate solution similar to the Euro or Euro ensembles..which unfortunately for us means less dynamic snow..and more .5-.75" QPF amounts with higher on the island. The rapid cyclogenesis and CCB development will take place over Southern New England. The NAM hasn't shown any consistency...it was a monster at 12z, a moderate hit at 18z, then back to a thumping at 0z. It's a meaningless model with QPF as it's always way too wet and overdoes the dynamics of every storm. There's just not much precedent for such a widespread area receiving nearly 1" of QPF in 6 hrs as the 0z run showed, as discussed earlier; that's merely a pipe dream and not a very convincing one, at that. The ECM shows about .75-1" QPF for the area, which is about right in my opinion. We'll get into the CCB, almost as much as New England but not quite, and LI will take the biggest hit. Remember, though, ratios are going to be great with this storm; some people had 20:1 in the Norlun event Friday, and we'll probably be dealing with similar temperature profiles and even better dynamics. 20:1 won't verify, but 15:1 is a good bet in the deformation band. Another unusually cold storm for the NYC metro which is accustomed to sloppy wet snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 lol 88 users at 315, geez yikes We all have serious mental issues and most of us will die before 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Turns out strikingly similar at 48 hrs..just a hair weaker and de-amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 48 hrs H5 wind barbs are pointed straight up the coast..damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 looks like its gonna be close to 00z ...maybe less insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 As posted earlier..a hair southeast and less QPF at 51 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Crazy UVV's sitting over NYC at 51 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Absolutely annihilates Long Island at 54 hrs...JM will be dancing in the streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks almost like HPC in there short range images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Absolutely annihilates Long Island at 54 hrs...JM will be dancing in the streets. until 12z puts it in bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Absolutely annihilates Long Island at 54 hrs...JM will be dancing in the streets. The sim radar looks a lot like Christmas Day 2002 except biased east 100 miles or so. Crazy dynamics for sure!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 until 12z puts it in bermuda OSUMetStud FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Southern New England is buried at hr 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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