Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,611
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

NYC/PHL Jan 11-14 Threat Potential Part 3


am19psu

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 594
  • Created
  • Last Reply

What is your confidence on the watch being issued this morning?

Also, when does your office typically release your colorful maps regarding snow totals?

We are still pondering if a watch will be issued or not with this early mornings forecast package.

Regarding the colorful snow totals map, I am assuming you are referring to our storm total snowfall map. That will be posted if we go with a watch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We are still pondering if a watch will be issued or not with this early mornings forecast package.

Regarding the colorful snow totals map, I am assuming you are referring to our storm total snowfall map. That will be posted if we go with a watch.

Thank You MGorse for that information and your public service, as it is appreciated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh well.......looks like the NAM dream run turns out to be just that - a dream. Not suprised - hopefully Euro doesn't go further east. Sounds like quite a bit further east with the QPF field than at 12z

I wouldn't discount the NAM, the models may still be trending with their surface features to match the upper levels. Like I said before, the gfs is probably the furthest east it can go. With a primary way back inland and a rising NAO, you're not going to have a secondary too far east. I'm actually thinking the NYC area will see 1"+ QPF amounts with this one or a good MECS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Strange how although the Euro trended stronger aloft as well, the QPF was more paltry overall.

Maybe a later transfer with the 850 low.. just throwing it out there, dont have 850 maps for the euro... nam at 54 had h5 closed with 2 contours.. euro just 1 contour closed h5 low. thats's the difference

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i must have missed it, i guess the storm already happened.

HAHA. You didn't miss anything - I think the hope (at least my hope) was that the NAM would be that start of a trend. Based on the rest of the 0z package that didn't happen. I think that makes the NAM solution likely to be "off." Of course we'll see as we get closer, however I don't think it has any model support right now. MM5 at 60 hours isn't reliable at all and doesn't count.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HAHA. You didn't miss anything - I think the hope (at least my hope) was that the NAM would be that start of a trend. Based on the rest of the 0z package that didn't happen. I think that makes the NAM solution likely to be "off." Of course we'll see as we get closer, however I don't think it has any model support right now. MM5 at 60 hours isn't reliable at all and doesn't count.

It has SREFs support, means and individuals are quite quicy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's amazing to watch as the clock ticks past 1:00am and suddenly new words are added to americanwx's dictionary

:lol:

LOL, my typing at this hour is quite quicy as well, and the funny part, being my fat finger on the keyboard..... the q is no where near the j. Kinda like the globals and the NAM.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...