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NYC/PHL Jan 11-14 Threat Potential Part 3


am19psu

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What is your confidence on the watch being issued this morning?

Also, when does your office typically release your colorful maps regarding snow totals?

We are still pondering if a watch will be issued or not with this early mornings forecast package.

Regarding the colorful snow totals map, I am assuming you are referring to our storm total snowfall map. That will be posted if we go with a watch.

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We are still pondering if a watch will be issued or not with this early mornings forecast package.

Regarding the colorful snow totals map, I am assuming you are referring to our storm total snowfall map. That will be posted if we go with a watch.

Thank You MGorse for that information and your public service, as it is appreciated.

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Oh well.......looks like the NAM dream run turns out to be just that - a dream. Not suprised - hopefully Euro doesn't go further east. Sounds like quite a bit further east with the QPF field than at 12z

I wouldn't discount the NAM, the models may still be trending with their surface features to match the upper levels. Like I said before, the gfs is probably the furthest east it can go. With a primary way back inland and a rising NAO, you're not going to have a secondary too far east. I'm actually thinking the NYC area will see 1"+ QPF amounts with this one or a good MECS.

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Strange how although the Euro trended stronger aloft as well, the QPF was more paltry overall.

Maybe a later transfer with the 850 low.. just throwing it out there, dont have 850 maps for the euro... nam at 54 had h5 closed with 2 contours.. euro just 1 contour closed h5 low. thats's the difference

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i must have missed it, i guess the storm already happened.

HAHA. You didn't miss anything - I think the hope (at least my hope) was that the NAM would be that start of a trend. Based on the rest of the 0z package that didn't happen. I think that makes the NAM solution likely to be "off." Of course we'll see as we get closer, however I don't think it has any model support right now. MM5 at 60 hours isn't reliable at all and doesn't count.

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HAHA. You didn't miss anything - I think the hope (at least my hope) was that the NAM would be that start of a trend. Based on the rest of the 0z package that didn't happen. I think that makes the NAM solution likely to be "off." Of course we'll see as we get closer, however I don't think it has any model support right now. MM5 at 60 hours isn't reliable at all and doesn't count.

It has SREFs support, means and individuals are quite quicy.

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It's amazing to watch as the clock ticks past 1:00am and suddenly new words are added to americanwx's dictionary

:lol:

LOL, my typing at this hour is quite quicy as well, and the funny part, being my fat finger on the keyboard..... the q is no where near the j. Kinda like the globals and the NAM.

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