tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 66 sub 984 bout 100 miles east of cc .1-.25 nyc to bgm to alb .25-.5 central li to then right up ct and mass border .5-.75 e li and e ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What is your confidence on the watch being issued this morning? Also, when does your office typically release your colorful maps regarding snow totals? We are still pondering if a watch will be issued or not with this early mornings forecast package. Regarding the colorful snow totals map, I am assuming you are referring to our storm total snowfall map. That will be posted if we go with a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Seems similar to GFS QPF, with .6-.75" for the city, a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 72 lgt precip .01-.1 for everyone except central and easter ct, .1-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 pretty much from phl-ttn close to .50....east of that line .50+....nyc close to .75....LI .75+...west of the del river .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Oh well.......looks like the NAM dream run turns out to be just that - a dream. Not suprised - hopefully Euro doesn't go further east. Sounds like quite a bit further east with the QPF field than at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not a bad run at all...a general 6-8 inch type event for NYC based on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z Euro had 1" QPF for the City, now it's .75", similar to the GFS, still a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 72 lgt precip .01-.1 for everyone except central and easter ct, .1-.25 its actually turning out to be a longer duration event? 54 to 72hr its snowing phil to nyc, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Strange how although the Euro trended stronger aloft as well, the QPF was more paltry overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How did the h5 config look compared to the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 qpf .25-.5 all of pa, de, western fringes of jerz by phl and philipsburg .5-.75 lewes to ttn to orange co to alb .75-1 nyc to nw ct to se nh 1-1.25 cape anne mass to orh to hrf to central li 1.25-1.5 eastern li, ri and se mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Strange how although the Euro trended stronger aloft as well, the QPF was more paltry overall. Maybe that's something that will be picked up on at the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Oh well.......looks like the NAM dream run turns out to be just that - a dream. Not suprised - hopefully Euro doesn't go further east. Sounds like quite a bit further east with the QPF field than at 12z i must have missed it, i guess the storm already happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Oh well.......looks like the NAM dream run turns out to be just that - a dream. Not suprised - hopefully Euro doesn't go further east. Sounds like quite a bit further east with the QPF field than at 12z It's the global models vs the high-res models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How did the h5 config look compared to the NAM? Not as robust but it def. trended stronger with the shortwave and digging. So that offers some slight window of hope--not likely that the NAM is the final solution though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We are still pondering if a watch will be issued or not with this early mornings forecast package. Regarding the colorful snow totals map, I am assuming you are referring to our storm total snowfall map. That will be posted if we go with a watch. Thank You MGorse for that information and your public service, as it is appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 its actually turning out to be a longer duration event? 48 to 72hr its snowing phil to nyc, correct? thats just lingering light stuff...not going to amount to much...the storm happens between 54-66.......its quick moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 its actually turning out to be a longer duration event? 54 to 72hr its snowing phil to nyc, correct? yes, hr 72 is just lgt flurries and snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Oh well.......looks like the NAM dream run turns out to be just that - a dream. Not suprised - hopefully Euro doesn't go further east. Sounds like quite a bit further east with the QPF field than at 12z I wouldn't discount the NAM, the models may still be trending with their surface features to match the upper levels. Like I said before, the gfs is probably the furthest east it can go. With a primary way back inland and a rising NAO, you're not going to have a secondary too far east. I'm actually thinking the NYC area will see 1"+ QPF amounts with this one or a good MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Strange how although the Euro trended stronger aloft as well, the QPF was more paltry overall. Maybe a later transfer with the 850 low.. just throwing it out there, dont have 850 maps for the euro... nam at 54 had h5 closed with 2 contours.. euro just 1 contour closed h5 low. thats's the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i must have missed it, i guess the storm already happened. HAHA. You didn't miss anything - I think the hope (at least my hope) was that the NAM would be that start of a trend. Based on the rest of the 0z package that didn't happen. I think that makes the NAM solution likely to be "off." Of course we'll see as we get closer, however I don't think it has any model support right now. MM5 at 60 hours isn't reliable at all and doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 HAHA. You didn't miss anything - I think the hope (at least my hope) was that the NAM would be that start of a trend. Based on the rest of the 0z package that didn't happen. I think that makes the NAM solution likely to be "off." Of course we'll see as we get closer, however I don't think it has any model support right now. MM5 at 60 hours isn't reliable at all and doesn't count. It has SREFs support, means and individuals are quite quicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It has SREFs support, means and individuals are quite quicy. It's amazing to watch as the clock ticks past 1:00am and suddenly new words are added to americanwx's dictionary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's amazing to watch as the clock ticks past 1:00am and suddenly new words are added to americanwx's dictionary Dont mean to step on your regional threads toes, but I cant get an answer from mine...QPF for KBWI on Euro? Im guessing around .20-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Dont mean to step on your regional threads toes, but I cant get an answer from mine...QPF for KBWI on Euro? Im guessing around .20-.25 I'd estimate around .30-.35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's amazing to watch as the clock ticks past 1:00am and suddenly new words are added to americanwx's dictionary LOL, my typing at this hour is quite quicy as well, and the funny part, being my fat finger on the keyboard..... the q is no where near the j. Kinda like the globals and the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'd estimate around .30-.35 alright thanks..so a 2-5 inch snowfall pretty much looks like the consensus around these parts...It a Philly to Boston winter this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 qpf .25-.5 all of pa, de, western fringes of jerz by phl and philipsburg .5-.75 lewes to ttn to orange co to alb .75-1 nyc to nw ct to se nh 1-1.25 cape anne mass to orh to hrf to central li 1.25-1.5 eastern li, ri and se mass Tombo.. whats HRF? Im hoping you meant 'HFD'. Id be very happy with 1-1.25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tombo.. whats HRF? Im hoping you meant 'HFD'. Id be very happy with 1-1.25. lol yea, see johns above comments 126am lol...but yea hfd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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