greg ralls Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is the ECMWF underway? Eagerly awaiting tombo's PBP unless he's sacked out after the Eagles game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 87 to 287 over the tap up 684 to 84 heading E towards HFD....looks good for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tonights SUNY MM5 can be added to the list of higher resolution models shaking hands with the NAM That depiction is obviously insane (5 closed 500mb contours), and the MM5 isn't in its optimal range yet, but it does make one wonder if the global solutions generally are too flat and not seeing the more mesoscale aspects of bombogenesis/baroclinicity, etc. Particularly when aloft, the globals so far are trending more potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 alright the 0z euro just initialized, lets see if we can get a solution that will make ray dream that he could be back in ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thanks for doing this, tombo. I know I should already be in bed, but this is great entertainment! no problem, lets hope we still have the 12z solution or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It seems pretty amazing IMO that all the high resolution models thus far are pretty much in the same camp. Its not a matter of "being nice" it could be a matter of resolution in the models.. Time will tell I guess with the ECM ....being its a high resolution model I am looking for it to lean more in the camp of the other high res models then the GFS... The EC has more (much more) in common with the GFS than with the NAM ARW etc. While its higher resolution than the GFS, its still a global spectral model, like the GFS. Its much different from, say, the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That depiction is obviously insane (5 closed 500mb contours), and the MM5 isn't in its optimal range yet, but it does make one wonder if the global solutions generally are too flat and not seeing the more mesoscale aspects of bombogenesis/baroclinicity, etc. Particularly when aloft, the globals so far are trending more potent. The 0z Euro should tell us a lot since it has the same resolution as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The EC has more (much more) in common with the GFS than with the NAM ARW etc. While its higher resolution than the GFS, its still a global spectral model, like the GFS. Its much different from, say, the NAM. Definitely correct. It's a whole lot wetter, though (at 12z)..bringing the 1" line west of the NY/NJ border towards EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Definitely correct. It's a whole lot wetter, though (at 12z)..bringing the 1" line west of the NY/NJ border towards EWR. I was just speaking on the model itself, not any current output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 through hr 18 the northern stream seems a little faster and digging a little more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Definitely correct. It's a whole lot wetter, though (at 12z)..bringing the 1" line west of the NY/NJ border towards EWR. The Euro staying in line with the wetter models would make me a lot more confident as to its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Agree, as the main feature to drive all of this for us is the upper low currently in the Plains. What is your confidence on the watch being issued this morning? Also, when does your office typically release your colorful maps regarding snow totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The 0z Euro should tell us a lot since it has the same resolution as the NAM. It does not have the same resolution as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'll tell you this ---the NAM is about 50-100 miles further south with the 546 and 540 dm height lines compared to the Euro and GFS at 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Alright lets let Tom do his thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 through hr 30, northern stream continues to be a little faster and digging a little more...the low off the se coast is also a little stornger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Heights, if anything, are a bit less amplified on the east coast through 36 hours. But the northern stream looks better so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM certainly way more amplified than the Euro through 42 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks to me like it will fall between the NAM and GFS here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 42 has a sub 1016 low sse of hse and sub 1020 low over ohio.... hr 48 h5 closes off over ohio...with a sub 1012 low due north of hse... .01-.1 about to get into phl... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It does not have the same resolution as the NAM. The Euro is very close to the NAM's resolution. It is a global spectral wave so it doesn't compute like a "grid" based models, but I believe the ECMWF is around 15 km's--the NAM is 12km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 A tick east of it's 12z run through 54 with the CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 54 has a sub 1004 low about 100-150 miles east of lewes del ,1-.25 nyc to buff .25-.5 belmar to willow grove to chadds ford pa then right down del line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 H5 trough actually dug more this run..but it didn't tug the surface low northwest like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Fairly similar to the GFS QPF through 60..maybe a hair wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 60 phl close to .50 and nyc .50+ still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 60 sub 996 50 miles east of the bm .1-.25 cape anne mass to just north of alb to bradford pa to phl tosea isle city .25-.5 toms river to orange county to just north of pughkeepsie to bos. .5-.75 queens on east on li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Definitely shifted east with the QPF. .75 to NYC. 1" eastern Suffolk Co...1.25 on Montauk. .5 makes it over famartins head in Mercer Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Very similiar to the GFS, this is going to be a moderate event, certainly no KU storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 A little more at 72 hrs..so the .75" line makes it west of SI to EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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