NaoPos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 gfs long range 300+ looks like heaven ///now back to your regulary scheduled program.. Any reason why the NAM isn't shearing out the energy and keeping it more consolidated compared the GFS? is its high res creating some type of feedback? j/w and any info would help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 re: EC Mean vs. NAM hard to tell, but looks at least 100 miles further east The EC Ensembles were a good bit west of the GFS..but not as wrapped up as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The EC Ensembles were a good bit west of the GFS..but not as wrapped up as the NAM. sounds like a decent compromise. I honestly don't see the surface low hugging the coast like some of the NAM runs had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 sounds like a decent compromise. I honestly don't see the surface low hugging the coast like some of the NAM runs had. It's definitely amongst the possible solutions if you ask me. The H5 chart is screaming for major amplification if the PVA can eject north/northeast as the NAM indicates. The NAM closes off the H5 low about 4-6 hours faster than most guidance which helps to back the H5 flow on the east coast. You can also argue the GFS and GGEM trended in this direction by backing the heights along the coast on tonight's 00z runs. Would I bet my money on the NAM? No...but I think it's on the western envelope of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 great post. plus, Upton has been throwing out the op in favor of the ensembles, and using a blend of them, in addition to the Euro/nam/rgem for their reasoning. i think we're still in for a solid 6-12 event (at least), with heavy snows during the wed AM rush... When the GFS depiction aloft looks stronger and more amplified yet the sfc solution isn't changed at all, it's a red flag to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Alright, so based on what I've gathered, the models are moving a bit towards the NAM at h5, but that model still remains too aggressive and we're likely to see something east of it while others models come in a little more west over the next day or so. Sound about right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 posted in the general forum about 30 minutes ago.... Some evening thoughts: 1) Right now, given the good run-to-run continuity of the ECMWF and the storm's somewhat overperforming down south, I favor a compromise between the 0z NAM and GFS. That means 6" or greater snows from Philadelphia north and eastward. New York, Boston, Worcester, and Hartford are among the cities that will likely see 6"-12" (and possibly more). This coming event will be a major reason I believe NYC and BOS will likely pick up 10" or more snow this month. Unfortunately, at this time, cities such as Ottawa and Montreal likely won't receive a significant impact (probably less than 2 centimeters). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS 00Z Clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ok we have strong confluence, more than i thought. with a 1030 high over OH, the primary should not get too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Our thinking here is 6 to12 inches for the Newark Metro area, I also think mixing issues may get to the NYC Metro area early on, Would not be shocked for some sleet or Snow Pellets mix in before midnight. end game also would not be shocked to see another blizzard warning issued for some of us. I also think with any banding some areas may go north of 12 inches and this storm does not end in the morning like some indicate but goes into the afternoon hours on Wednesday, On a side note been doing this a long time don't recall to many of these real snowy periods, only happen I think a couple of times in the last 20 or 30 years to get two real biggies inside of 3 weeks. So far Harrison NJ has 27.7 for the season our normal is 28 inches, we said to some ( not on this board ) to expect above average snowfall and above average temperature for the winter at least will have one right going into this weekend and I think there will be a pattern change down the road so I think we should not get use to the snowy pattern but enjoy it while it last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 posted in the general forum about 30 minutes ago.... While I respect Don very much... one thing I feel the need to point out is that what is going on down south at the moment is isn't what we need to focus on. Its the system coming in from the west. That's what makes or breaks the storm... If what was happening down south was really important, it would be forecast to snow Monday night instead of Tuesday night, and this would be a Miller A instead of a B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So is Mt. Holly discounting this solution? We were yesterday and will probably do the same today. The 00z NAM just looks to tucked in with its surface low positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 While I respect Don very much... one thing I feel the need to point out is that what is going on down south at the moment is isn't what we need to focus on. Its the system coming in from the west. That's what makes or breaks the storm... If what was happening down south was really important, it would be forecast to snow Monday night instead of Tuesday night, and this would be a Miller A instead of a B. Agree, as the main feature to drive all of this for us is the upper low currently in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS Bufkit (yes I refreshed this time) RDG- 4.9" ABE- 3.7" AVP- 4.7" PHL- 4.3" ACY 1.1" TTN- 4.4" JFK 8.3" EWR- 7.1" HPN- 8.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Agree, as the main feature to drive all of this for us is the upper low currently in the Plains. BTW Mike, I think we are both doing the exact same thing (aside from browsing the board) right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Both the Hi-Res NMM and ARW from this evening are closing the H5 low off a few hours faster than the GFS and more similarly to the NAM. Really just perplexing how the higher resolution models along with the SREF's are so wrapped up..especially since the GFS and GGEM trended in that directly slowly tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 BTW Mike, I think we are both doing the exact same thing (aside from browsing the board) right now Just sent out my TAFs, you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think its important to keep in mind that almost every model at one point and time..the exceptions being the GFS/UKMET ..have actually showed a much more potent storm. One run of the 00z GGEM actually had the low pressure on the coast of Southern NJ and then on top of NYC. On January 3 (ECM long range I know) actually showed this as a HECS. The NOGAPS for like ten runs in a row showed a track very similar to what the NAM is showing now. The NOGAPS tonight at 48 hrs is more west then what the GFS is at 48 hrs...and even though it still ends up south and east its actually slightly west of its 18 Z run... NAM has the back up of the 21 SREFS which HPC was using earlier today... The ECM means may be about 75 miles or so further east but that is still pretty close to the 00z NAM.... Perhaps the high resolution of the NAM is what is making the difference between it and the GFS. After all the GGEM trended back west and better at H 5. Not so sure if i would just dismiss the NAM because it stands in contrast... At one point the GFS stood in contrast on the Boxing Day Blizzard (different set up yes i know) and was even put down to all kinds of errors...but then what happened? Other models started going towards it at the end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 While I respect Don very much... one thing I feel the need to point out is that what is going on down south at the moment is isn't what we need to focus on. Its the system coming in from the west. That's what makes or breaks the storm... If what was happening down south was really important, it would be forecast to snow Monday night instead of Tuesday night, and this would be a Miller A instead of a B. while ur right in some aspects. from looking at this, the sfc low now in the gulf never fades. it re-organizes itself and then gets help from the upper low over the plains. hopefully link works: My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 JMA has .75-1.00 QPF for the area with slightly more on eastern LI. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Both the Hi-Res NMM and ARW from this evening are closing the H5 low off a few hours faster than the GFS and more similarly to the NAM. Really just perplexing how the higher resolution models along with the SREF's are so wrapped up..especially since the GFS and GGEM trended in that directly slowly tonight. Where did you get it at already? I am only at hr 3 on Ncep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Both the Hi-Res NMM and ARW from this evening are closing the H5 low off a few hours faster than the GFS and more similarly to the NAM. Really just perplexing how the higher resolution models along with the SREF's are so wrapped up..especially since the GFS and GGEM trended in that directly slowly tonight. I think the end result will fall in between what the NAM and GFS/ECMWF solutions show. It would be rather interesting though if the NAM ended up being right, however I think it is still to wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tonights SUNY MM5 can be added to the list of higher resolution models shaking hands with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think the end result will fall in between what the NAM and GFS/ECMWF solutions show. It would be rather interesting though if the NAM ended up being right, however I think it is still to wrapped up. Yeah, I pretty much agree. That seems to fall reasonably inline with the ECMWF Ens mean from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just sent out my TAFs, you? Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tonights SUNY MM5 can be added to the list of higher resolution models shaking hands with the NAM here My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think its important to keep in mind that almost every model at one point and time. That's nice, but I'm pretty sure they did that with the 12/19 non-event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 while ur right in some aspects. from looking at this, the sfc low now in the gulf never fades. it re-organizes itself and then gets help from the upper low over the plains. hopefully link works: My link While you are correct at the surface, as most have pointed out, its not the surface which *really* matters. Its essentially like your average Miller B where the disturbance jumps to the coast and redevelops on a preexisting baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That's nice, but I'm pretty sure they did that with the 12/19 non-event too. It seems pretty amazing IMO that all the high resolution models thus far are pretty much in the same camp. Its not a matter of "being nice" it could be a matter of resolution in the models.. Time will tell I guess with the ECM ....being its a high resolution model I am looking for it to lean more in the camp of the other high res models then the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 While you are correct at the surface, as most have pointed out, its not the surface which *really* matters. Its essentially like your average Miller B where the disturbance jumps to the coast and redevelops on a preexisting baroclinic zone. gotcha... thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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