famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 TN is really getting pounded right now via radar pic, GFS has them not getting anything what they are ACTUALLY experiencing. Half of that is virga at least. Look at surface obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Considering the Euro showed a decent hit today, the GFS is getting better at H5, and the NAM has SREF support, I'd go with a good event at the moment. I've heard the GFS isn't the best with east coast storms. Now if the Euro goes east, the GFS would have more weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Half of that is virga at least. Look at surface obs. Ray, you are a posting machine lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Considering the Euro showed a decent hit today, the GFS is getting better at H5, and the NAM has SREF support, I'd go with a good event at the moment. I've heard the GFS isn't the best with east coast storms. Now if the Euro goes east, the GFS would have more weight. The GFS can be bad in the mid range. We're getting into GFS golden times. And the EC has been having trouble right around this time lately (48-72 hours before the event). Remember the EC flips. Amounts are certainly not locked right now. This could go KU... or it could just be a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ray, you are a posting machine lately. Haha, I think some posts in between mine were deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The NAM has been good on most storms this winter but we're still not really into its strong range yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The GFS can be bad in the mid range. We're getting into GFS golden times. And the EC has been having trouble right around this time lately (48-72 hours before the event). Remember the EC flips. Amounts are certainly not locked right now. This could go KU... or it could just be a moderate event. Not saying the ECMWF isn't going to flip tonight...but the reason due to the flip was because the northern shortwave wasn't being sampled. This time, everything should have been properly sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 being stuck out west, do you feel better if ewing gets 12" or 2"? Well I already made an unofficial call of 6-10 so I'd be happiest if that happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Its still too far out to go too heavy with the mesoscales yet. Wait til the system is within 48 hours (so not until 12Z tomorrow at the earliest), then start giving the mesoscales more weight. Right now I'd go with a blend of the GFS and whatever the EC spits out. Ray - you obviously seem to have a good grasp of when to use which models. Was wondering if you might comment on the thread I started on the main board asking about verification scores for the main models with regard to snowfall prediction performance in the NE US at different timepoints. Just curious to see if there is real data out there or if most people go with their experience/memory or something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not saying the ECMWF isn't going to flip tonight...but the reason due to the flip was because the northern shortwave wasn't being sampled. This time, everything should have been properly sampled. That was the reason for the flip for the 12/26 event. But remember it flipped on the 12/19 non-event. At that time it had trouble with the southern shortwave as it came ashore. Not saying its gonna do any flipping this time, but certainly something to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Craig Allen On-Air IncOK...this is w/o over analysis this evng b/c its going to waiver b&f a few times and no complete consensus yet amongst the players. So let's start with an easy 6. 12-18" is certainly attainable w/ ltng & thndr, howling winds- the works- again. All by Wed mrng at its closest apprch. Then slowly tapers down drg the day. Tonights data says "snow day!!!" for Wed. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ray - you obviously seem to have a good grasp of when to use which models. Was wondering if you might comment on the thread I started on the main board asking about verification scores for the main models with regard to snowfall prediction performance in the NE US at different timepoints. Just curious to see if there is real data out there or if most people go with their experience/memory or something else. I don't think they do any verification on *snowfall*. They *do* do verification on precipitation forecasts. I have been shown recent stats that the EC is king, barely. EC has a slight dry bias and the GFS has a slight wet bias. NAM.. well, it sucks (way too wet overall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The NAM has been good on most storms this winter but we're still not really into its strong range yet. It looks like the 00z NAM is stronger with the mid level low which then tugs the surface low closer to the coast. This solution seems to be the farthest west one and is probably to far west and therefore its QPF is to high (at least for PA, NJ and DE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 nuisance event? You must under the age of 20 because a 3-6 storm in the 80s and through the 90s was considered a solid snowstorm, its just past decade and the last 5 years that have fooled people. Well a 3-6" doesn't close anything down like schools and businesses, which makes things worse for travelers. There's more accidents in these types of storm because people ignore the threat. And I know about the whole 80s, 90s thing, I brought that point up earlier today. I'm not expecting another 12" inch storm, 6" would do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GGEM snapshot. Waiting for actual maps. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/c44_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well I already made an unofficial call of 6-10 so I'd be happiest if that happened lol. clever answer. you're always cautious, so i'm encouraged by your call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Guys not to interupt your excellent discussion.....but regarding the NAM v GFS handling fo the vort lobe at 48 hours on the Jersey Shore: The NAM tried 3 different times with 2 different s/w complexes to do the exact same thing and failed since Thursday. I posted one of the maps from the other night that looks comically similar to tonights 0z NAM. It was the 12z NAM that delivered a big hit on Friday before it vanished. The other models had the energy getting out ENE instead of riding towards NYC. That's our difference here again tonight. And to add further - even the "east' models blew it in the end. Inside of 24 hours it just kept slipping further east ahead of the models which led to a big bust up here with actual storm snows. Instead of the CCB being on land, it was 200 miles offshore all within the last 12-18 hours of modeling. Just things to watch. If the euro nudges east at all tonight it's time to really be concerned about an eastward jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well a 3-6" doesn't close anything down like schools and businesses, which makes things worse for travelers. There's more accidents in these types of storm because people ignore the threat. And I know about the whole 80s, 90s thing, I brought that point up earlier today. I'm not expecting another 12" inch storm, 6" would do. 3-6 does close schools, at least some times. Not all the time, granted. But not *never* either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 00z GGEM certainly better than it's 12z run...but it, like the GFS, is not there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Guys not to interupt your excellent discussion.....but regarding the NAM v GFS handling fo the vort lobe at 48 hours on the Jersey Shore: The NAM tried 3 different times with 2 different s/w complexes to do the exact same thing and failed since Thursday. I posted one of the maps from the other night that looks comically similar to tonights 0z NAM. It was the 12z NAM that delivered a big hit on Friday before it vanished. The other models had the energy getting out ENE instead of riding towards NYC. That's our difference here again tonight. And to add further - even the "east' models blew it in the end. Inside of 24 hours it just kept slipping further east ahead of the models which led to a big bust up here with actual storm snows. Instead of the CCB being on land, it was 200 miles offshore all within the last 12-18 hours of modeling. Just things to watch. If the euro nudges east at all tonight it's time to really be concerned about an eastward jump. Good post. Something that keeps my eyebrows rasied is the SREF having so many members, of so many dynamic and modeling schemes, showing the big wrapped up solution. Something is up here...I guess we just don't really know what's going on yet. The 00z globals have all improved with their H5 setups so far (GFS/GGEM)...but they aren't jumping to the NAM yet. They both seem improved in getting the CCB to develop faster, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It looks like the 00z NAM is stronger with the mid level low which then tugs the surface low closer to the coast. This solution seems to be the farthest west one and is probably to far west and therefore its QPF is to high (at least for PA, NJ and DE). So is Mt. Holly discounting this solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS ensemble mean is pretty close to the op. 0.5" qpf may be a touch west of the op, but pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 00z GEFS means a little left of the OP with the track and QPF. Nothing major, but .5 goes about 50 miles W of the OP. .75 bisects LI right down the middle from N to S. 1"+ on the east end of Suffolk Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Good post. Something that keeps my eyebrows rasied is the SREF having so many members, of so many dynamic and modeling schemes, showing the big wrapped up solution. Something is up here...I guess we just don't really know what's going on yet. The 00z globals have all improved with their H5 setups so far (GFS/GGEM)...but they aren't jumping to the NAM yet. They both seem improved in getting the CCB to develop faster, though. I look at the 500mb depictions before I even look at the surface, and I agree that they all seemed to be more amplified/stronger. There's definitely still time for a "surprise", but I really like what I'm seeing on the upper air charts in terms of delivering improved energy and divergence aloft for the developing storm. I think it's likely that it's deepening fast at our latitude-we just have to hope it's close enough to deliver the goods. Personally, I'd rather also be on the western edge of the heavy precip on these coastal events, because that's often where the best banding sets up. I was progged on almost every model to have more liquid precip than E NJ on 12/26, yet some there saw close to 10" more snow than me. I was on the western end of the heavy precip on the models for 12/19/09, and yet we got rocked here for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 00z GGEM certainly better than it's 12z run...but it, like the GFS, is not there yet. Much better than 12z heavy snow (QPF) just offshore. General 0.25 - 0.50 for NJ/NYC more east (Similar to the gfs) but west of its 12z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I do not know guys...we are all discounting the NAM because of where it is but ..this looks quite interesting to me... ECM 12 Z means @ 72 hrs 00z NAM 60 hrs Looks pretty close if you ask me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 HPC ..LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST TUE-WED... PREFERENCE: BEFORE 00Z WED...NAM OR 12Z ECMWF AFTER 00Z WED...2/3 12Z ECMWF TO 1/3 GFS THE NAM AND 12Z ECMWF ARE SIMILAR THROUGH 00Z WED...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY EAST OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THEREAFTER THE NAM...DUE TO ITS DEEPER AND SLOWER SOLUTION UPSTREAM...PULLS THE LOW INCREASINGLY TOWARD THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS CLOSE BUT SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE ECMWF LOW TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WHILE NO OBVIOUS PROBLEMS EXIST WITH THE NAM'S SOLUTION LATE IN THE PERIOD...INCLUDING FROM INITIALIZATION...ITS LOW TRACK LIES WEST OF NEARLY THE ENTIRE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AFTER 12Z WED AND THUS IS DEEMED AN OUTLIER. AMONG THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF HAS SLIGHTLY BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THAN THE GFS. THUS...RECOMMEND LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I look at the 500mb depictions before I even look at the surface, and I agree that they all seemed to be more amplified/stronger. There's definitely still time for a "surprise", but I really like what I'm seeing on the upper air charts in terms of delivering improved energy and divergence aloft for the developing storm. I think it's likely that it's deepening fast at our latitude-we just have to hope it's close enough to deliver the goods. Personally, I'd rather also be on the western edge of the heavy precip on these coastal events, because that's often where the best banding sets up. I was progged on almost every model to have more liquid precip than E NJ on 12/26, yet some there saw close to 10" more snow than me. I was on the western end of the heavy precip on the models for 12/19/09, and yet we got rocked here for hours. great post. plus, Upton has been throwing out the op in favor of the ensembles, and using a blend of them, in addition to the Euro/nam/rgem for their reasoning. i think we're still in for a solid 6-12 event (at least), with heavy snows during the wed AM rush... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I do not know guys...we are all discounting the NAM because of where it is but ..this looks quite interesting to me... ECM 12 Z means @ 72 hrs 00z NAM 60 hrs Looks pretty close if you ask me.... Does the old "EE" rule apply even thought its the NAM and not the ETA now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 re: EC Mean vs. NAM hard to tell, but looks at least 100 miles further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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