am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 New SREFs are much more consolidated than before... should be an interesting set of 0z runs forthcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the mean h5 low is pretty secsy also ..or should i say mecsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The SREFs are nearly 10mb deeper with the surface low and developing it faster than the past runs. It's rare to see such a huge jump on the SREFs like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yea...im seeing the same thing. oh how big tonites runs are....SREF kinda starting the party, maybe? Well, if the SREFs are seeing something based on 21Z obs that the 12Z and 18Z models didn't see, 00Z runs should tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 The SREFs are nearly 10mb deeper with the surface low and developing it faster than the past runs. It's rare to see such a huge jump on the SREFs like this. You can see that there are some deep, western solutions there (because of the higher standard deviation). Coastal people might not be happy about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 SREF probabilities of 0.25" liquid is over 90% for most of the area..these are up big time from 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You can see that there are some deep, western solutions there (because of the higher standard deviation). Coastal people might not be happy about that. Yup...pretty encouraging for a more dynamic event, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yup...pretty encouraging for a more dynamic event, though. Yeah, absolutely. The I-95 crowd should be excited about that. Zero sum game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 well not crazy surprising given the impressive 15z SREF's and hints in todays NAM runs that the 21z SREF's are stronger with the secondary low. Todays 00z runs are gonna be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The SREFs are nearly 10mb deeper with the surface low and developing it faster than the past runs. It's rare to see such a huge jump on the SREFs like this. reminds of the jump they made before the boxing day blizzard. this sure is starting to look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the mean h5 low is pretty secsy also ..or should i say mecsy. Correct. The H5 trough is much more favorably oriented for PVA and cyclogenesis further southwest...the higher QPF values are owing to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The SREFs are nearly 10mb deeper with the surface low and developing it faster than the past runs. It's rare to see such a huge jump on the SREFs like this. hmmmmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You can see that there are some deep, western solutions there (because of the higher standard deviation). Coastal people might not be happy about that. looks ok to me there's almost no spread in NJ, except for people who are going fishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RH fields reveal what is happening here, too...pretty cool run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The SREFs are nearly 10mb deeper with the surface low and developing it faster than the past runs. It's rare to see such a huge jump on the SREFs like this. Are they deepening the coastal earlier in the track compared to the previous run? Makes a bigger difference with where the banding and heaviest qpf occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 looks ok to me there's almost no spread in NJ, except for people who are going fishing Yeah, I should probably just be quiet about it until I see the members. Going by previous solutions, that would have been bad, but it may not be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 .5" line on SREF's took a 50 mile jog west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 24hr totals /.. 1"+ for SNE ..E tip of LI.. very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 SREF mean closes off the 850 low about 10 miles east of the Central NJ coast. Then deepens and tracks just E of Montauk and then just E of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 As long as the low stays east of Montauk, the immediate NYC area should be fine. What we need to pay attention to is how fast the 700mb low closes off (initiating the massive CCB) and how fast the primary dies off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM heights are more amplified on the East Coast through 27 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM to me looks more amplified and slightly west at hr. 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 At 36, ridging might be slightly more amplified out in front. Not much difference from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 36 looks better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Surface low looks a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 36 looks better than 18z agreed here. looks much more amplified and digging further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Closed H5 over Indiana at 42 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z didn't have a closed h5 low this fast... but 00z weds fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM dramatically improved from 18z at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RSM gives the NYC area over 1 QPF and a little more on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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