subdude Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That is my point.....it bulleyes me, but I make it into the dry slot; models do that consistently. The jackpot should be over N ORH co and SW NH on that run, not mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The bullseye is often just NW of the dryslot because that area stays in the heavy snow the longest.....as the band pivots back to the east. Each storm is different but that is a common occurrence. You can of course get secondary maxes from banding further NW and such. Yeah models sometimes are a little too generous in DS regions and not beefy enough in the area that has high mid level RH, just nw of it. I think that sometimes the heavier snows are also ratio related...not that models necessarily busted too low with qpf. The NAM seems to focus on some strong low level convergence too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Brotha got a lock? lol - jackpot right over you. Kev, Will, and me in the 15-18 range. Like to see that hold up, but will be expecting the dryslot issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 BOX starting to tick up - WSW says 10-17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That is my point.....it bulleyes me, but I make it into the dry slot; models do that consistently. The jackpot should be over N ORH co and SW NH on that run, not mby. They don't get the WAA snows that you do though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm not afraid to say it..some places will pull 30 out of this. Yup 14 of snow and 16 out of your hiney? who see's 30 and why/how? i was asking if this has potential to stall .....i.e how the 250 HPA anomalies look but not really much feedback yet. if it slows /stalls than it is possible i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The qpf is 6 hour increments, the 700mb rh is time ending that hour. So you can have a dry slot over Wilmington and 1" of qpf for 0z Thu NAM, for ex, if the precip fell in less than 6 hours, between 18z and 22z True, but I should not have more total QPF than areas to my nw that never dry slot...that is my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Noyes going with 12-18 in a band from Pepperell to ECT south and east almost to the bridges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 that is this mornings the new one is alot better!!!! Looks the same as this morning's map for most areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 14 of snow and 16 out of your hiney? who see's 30 and why/how? i was asking if this has potential to stall .....i.e how the 250 HPA anomalies look but not really much feedback yet. if it slows /stalls than it is possible i guess. Nope don't need it to stall. X-mas storm 2003 dropped over 30 near ALB and was progressive..there's other too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 lol - jackpot right over you. Kev, Will, and me in the 15-18 range. Like to see that hold up, but will be expecting the dryslot issues. me too! cancelled all work obligations Wed am..will be interesting to watch unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 They don't get the WAA snows that you do though. Ok....so it seems the NW portion of the dry slot zone is often the best place to be, then. Just curious......I'm not bitc***...believe me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 SREFs, ensembles, Euro in general. Ride em into the sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well I pretty much took my balls out. Kevin certainly can't say they're too low. I have a feeling his are very swelled, I think there is a GREAT chance I finally see his 10'' since Feb 12th, 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is the newer BOX map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That WHDH map looks like it was drawn directly from the GFS QPF map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ... WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS... MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT NANTUCKET AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY... NORTHERN CONNECTICUT... RHODE ISLAND AND HILLSBOROUGH AND CHESHIRE COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. * HAZARD TYPES... SNOW... WHICH WILL FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS... 10 TO 17 INCHES OF SNOW. NWS upped the total some more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nope don't need it to stall. X-mas storm 2003 dropped over 30 near ALB and was progressive..there's other too Yeah I agree on this one, we don't need it to stall to see some impressive snow totals, there is going to be a great deal of moisture with great lift, and were going to see some sick snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How come you're not calling out all the mets who called for that..or BOX who had WSW up for that area? My other zones in SNE were on point I called BOX out all weekend and complimented Messenger on his forecast. The local tv forecasters did a good job though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Bustin into the PINKS! lol at the discontinuity between BOX and OKX from RI into southern CT I'm surprised at where Taunton puts the jackpot. I would bump things up over NE MA, and trim back in southern RI, and a little less in ORH Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ok....so it seems the NW portion of the dry slot zone is often the best place to be, then. Just curious......I'm not bitc***...believe me. The dryslot also enhances instability right at the edge of the heavy band of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nope don't need it to stall. X-mas storm 2003 dropped over 30 near ALB and was progressive..there's other too This is what I was saying, yesterday.....storms like this drip 30" in 12 hrs sometimes.....Earth light got just over 30" in about 12 hrs in that blizzard. NEVER expect that, but it's not impossible and is VERY localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The dryslot also enhances instability right at the edge of the heavy band of snow. Thanks...that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 True, but I should not have more total QPF than areas to my nw that never dry slot...that is my point. Is this for the NAM? Maybe it picks up a NE wind oeh contribution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That WHDH map looks like it was drawn directly from the GFS QPF map. It looks freakishly similar to the one I made 3 hours ago! Same delineation for 8-12 and 12-16 and I based it on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is what I was saying, yesterday.....storms like this drip 30" in 12 hrs sometimes.....Earth light got just over 30" in about 12 hrs in that blizzard. NEVER expect that, but it's not impossible and is VERY localized. thing is, that deform band would set up in a similar location if the GFS is correct, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS 18z Init...is a rollin' Doesn't match up well with the 18z NAM which is a total shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Brotha got a clown map. Congrats me, Jerry and Ray. and me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Bustin into the PINKS! lol at the discontinuity between BOX and OKX from RI into southern CT I'm surprised at where Taunton puts the jackpot. I would bump things up over NE MA, and trim back in southern RI, and a little less in ORH Co BOX almost always more bullish than OKX in an event like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is what I was saying, yesterday.....storms like this drip 30" in 12 hrs sometimes.....Earth light got just over 30" in about 12 hrs in that blizzard. NEVER expect that, but it's not impossible and is VERY localized. Exactly..this is precisely how you get those mega amts. You don't want it to stall out. You'd never expect that much ..but every single one of us here..including the mets knows there will be some 25-30 inch amts in a few lucky zones. Noone knows where..but we all know those big numbers will occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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