dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I disagree....the SREFs nudged se, the EURO and GFS essentially held serve and from what I gathered, the UK swallowed a pistol. Not up here, Srefs did go SE some but most came further NW up this way, All the qpf #s are higher since 00z, It really had little effect for you guys down there but it had huge implications up here........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 At least the water's warm enough to go swimming down here the entire month of September. lol - I remember my years living in Bristol back in the eary 90's. We actually had some good snows back then, but yes, the dreaded change over was an issue many times living in the state of Rain Island. The March 93 superstorm was a perfect example of this. I was loving life, until that part in the evening when the change happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Scott, is this system more progressive than the blizzard was.....because I know the blizzard was fairly progressive, as well. When will you begin to be able to focus on the guidance that flagged the banding potential near NYC in that one? It is a little, but this is also more juiced up. I think the banding potential can be flagged at any point, but any change in the model depiction will change the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yep. I get some wet flakes then 1" of rain before getting dryslotted. I could've gone to Las Vegas this week but the models held firm all weekend yet I'm always weary of the NW track and it's finally happening. Should've known this would happen!!!!!!! Maybe not enough to nail NW ski areas but enough to ruin our fun in extreme SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I disagree....the SREFs nudged se, the EURO and GFS essentially held serve and from what I gathered, the UK swallowed a pistol. Euro came a tad NW, but not by a lot...enough to move the 1" qpf line from BVY-ORH to PSM-ASH-ORE-BAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The meso models are in the nw camp The mm5 is se of ACK, but still not far from the Island. We were saying how H5 is so strong and could force it nw. You can see on all models that isobars are pointed nwd along the eastern seaboard, probably due to the strong baroclinic boundary. I don't know about the canal track..but I suppose it's not impossible. Still wiggle room time. Coastal WX 2 questions? is W framingham in a relative screw zone....in the sense that i won't get CF enhancement no matter what the track......and i would be in subsidence area....or not really. i'm about 25 miles W of logan apt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I disagree....the SREFs nudged se, the EURO and GFS essentially held serve and from what I gathered, the UK swallowed a pistol. EC and GFS inched west (GFS moreso than EC). EC ensembels a tick west of Op. UK and NG came west a lot, but still outliers east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What a total let-down!!! 5 inches of slop followed by rain, fog, lots of puddles and a worthless half inch of snow on the backside. I'm totally buying this solution because we almost always see this scenario play out. At least the water's warm enough to go swimming down here the entire month of September. GFS and EURO and respective ensembles do not agree with the NAM..at least yet. Take solace in that. Also Newport is in a better spot than the cape as far as any changeover is concerned.. at least with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It is a little, but this is also more juiced up. I think the banding potential can be flagged at any point, but any change in the model depiction will change the forecast. I've just been waiting for you to start hitting that harder because I remember you were all over the NYC banding potential, then all hell broke loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yes yes ...WTF are the 250 HPA anomalies are they 2.5 or > ? could they be? Mets....por favor. you big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Coastal WX 2 questions? is W framingham in a relative screw zone....in the sense that i won't get CF enhancement no matter what the track......and i would be in subsidence area....or not really. i'm about 25 miles W of logan apt. I don't think that can be determined yet. I think you are in a good location overall, but it's too early to determine screwzones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 did I really just see the Nam take my snow totals down bigtime in northeastern bristol county. :gun_bandana:NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 True but if you look closely, the product draws the 12-18 SE border exactly where the H925 temps go above. yeah. no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I've just been waiting for you to start hitting that harder because I remember you were all over the NYC banding potential, then all hell broke loose. It's all about mid level low positions, but when you see model jumps like the NAM..it may be too early to determine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 lol - I remember my years living in Bristol back in the eary 90's. We actually had some good snows back then, but yes, the dreaded change over was an issue many times living in the state of Rain Island. The March 93 superstorm was a perfect example of this. I was loving life, until that part in the evening when the change happened. You'd be surprised how much more snow Bristol gets than Newport. 12 miles can mean a big difference. The early 1990s were bad for snow down here. You're probably thinking 1994. 1993 was great for Boston west to Worcester, but the South Coast got rained on all winter and didn't get in on that ocean effect monster that nailed the Cape in Feb. 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Euro came a tad NW, but not by a lot...enough to move the 1" qpf line from BVY-ORH to PSM-ASH-ORE-BAF Ok......Dryslot, I stand corrected. Coastal WX 2 questions? is W framingham in a relative screw zone....in the sense that i won't get CF enhancement no matter what the track......and i would be in subsidence area....or not really. i'm about 25 miles W of logan apt. My musings have been messing with your head. I don't think it's as big of a deal for you because I am IMMEDIATELY inland from the coast, which makes me more susceptible to subsidence from coast jackpots.....you're further removed from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Euro came a tad NW, but not by a lot...enough to move the 1" qpf line from BVY-ORH to PSM-ASH-ORE-BAF That's a pretty significant shift, is it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS and EURO and respective ensembles do not agree with the NAM..at least yet. Take solace in that. Also Newport is in a better spot than the cape as far as any changeover is concerned.. at least with this storm it shifted like 30 or 40 miles or something. not a big deal. it could happen. it could just as easily come around at 00z and be back near or outside of ACK. we'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS and EURO and respective ensembles do not agree with the NAM..at least yet. Take solace in that. Also Newport is in a better spot than the cape as far as any changeover is concerned.. at least with this storm If the euro is right we do great here same as gfs. Nam was the worst model verifying in the past week so it's for fun only until supported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Brotha got a clown map. Congrats me, Jerry and Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I could've gone to Las Vegas this week but the models held firm all weekend yet I'm always weary of the NW track and it's finally happening. Should've known this would happen!!!!!!! Maybe not enough to nail NW ski areas but enough to ruin our fun in extreme SNE. We may get screwed with any good winds, also, if this goes right overhead. I'm used to not getting snow, but I count on at least getting some decent winds. Not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If the euro is right we do great here same as gfs. Nam was the worst model verifying in the past week so it's for fun only until supported. yeah...it would certainly "dampen" my spirits if it verified that far NW but it would be a good deal for most folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You'd be surprised how much more snow Bristol gets than Newport. 12 miles can mean a big difference. The early 1990s were bad for snow down here. You're probably thinking 1994. 1993 was great for Boston west to Worcester, but the South Coast got rained on all winter and didn't get in on that ocean effect monster that nailed the Cape in Feb. 1993. I was living there from 88 - 93. And while I remember some good snows, you may be right. It may have been 1 or 2 per year, and the one or two big ones that happened over the course of 5 years stick out the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Brotha got a clown map. Congrats me, Jerry and Ray. Brotha got a lock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Brotha got a clown map. Congrats me, Jerry and Ray. I see you've forgotten about me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Has anyone loaded up 20 inches yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 upton fresh of the press....just giving insight into what some of the best are calling for down stream that may effect us....poss SE mass THE ECMWF AND WRF-NMM CAME CLOSEST AT 500MB WITH THE GFS THE BEST AT 850MB. OVERALL THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GETTING CLOSER WITH DIFFERENCES AT THIS LEVEL GOING MORE TOWARD MODEL PHYSICS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION GENERATION AND INTENSIFICATION. THIS UNFORTUNATELY IS ONE OF THE WEAKER, BUT IN THE WINTER ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT PARAMETERS WE NEED TO FORECAST. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD A EUROPEAN/WRF-NMM COMPROMISE. THIS WOULD TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION THE POSSIBLE MORE LEFT TURN OF THE COASTAL LOW BECAUSE OF THE TROF AND CONVECTION THAT CAUSES GREATER UPWIND RIDGING THAN MODELS SOMETIME FORECAST. WE ALSO TOOK INTO ACCOUNT SOME OF THE GFS THERMAL FIELDS BECAUSE OF ITS BETTER HANDLING OF TEMPS AOB 850MB IN THE SE. bloomberg just crapped himself again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That's a pretty significant shift, is it not? Maybe 25 miles? That's well within the margin for error at this point. But as I mentioned before, and so did others...a hedge NW is pretty reasonable, so I think the slight ticks to the NW are probably real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Warnings up now for the Taunton forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 For areas like MBY, S VT and S ME.. I would honestly rather see the NAM come back east a little bit..like Scott said earlier, there is going to be a monster deformation band with this and per the 18z Nam that would be located in central Vermont and NH.. I could see places like laconia an rutland cash in 15-18 on the 18z Nam and s NH and ME get 10-12.. just the nature of the band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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