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Coastal Storm Potential - Jan 11-12 II


Baroclinic Zone

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Thanks. I could envision a quick 4-7" dump before any changeover with that type of track. Probably 2-5 for you

I'd agree with that...if the NAM found an acorn here I'd get a few inches before it changed with that track...soundings be damned.

The guy from northern maine is still going to be rootin tootin mad but I'd be happy at SR this weekend.

nam_p60_084l.gif

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This scenario is unfolding in predictable fashion with January 2005 and December 2009 being the outliers. A few days out extreme SE New England is in the bullseye....then the models bring it farther NW the closer we get to the event and we start talking about the dreaded yet all too typical change to rain for SE areas.

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I'd agree with that...if the NAM found an acorn here I'd get a few inches before it changed with that track...soundings be damned.

The guy from northern maine is still going to be rootin tootin mad but I'd be happy at SR this weekend.

nam_p60_084l.gif

You would be carving up there as i would be carving with my sled here........... :snowman:

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This scenario is unfolding in predictable fashion with January 2005 and December 2009 being the outliers. A few days out extreme SE New England is in the bullseye....then the models bring it farther NW the closer we get to the event and we start talking about the dreaded yet all too typical change to rain for SE areas.

As much as I want that to be the case for mby, I really don't think we're at the point where there's serious talk about a change to rain. It's one run which was a big shift from six hours earlier. It's a run that's in the face of all other guidance.

Of course, I'll continue to hope and dream.

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The meso models are in the nw camp The mm5 is se of ACK, but still not far from the Island. We were saying how H5 is so strong and could force it nw. You can see on all models that isobars are pointed nwd along the eastern seaboard, probably due to the strong baroclinic boundary. I don't know about the canal track..but I suppose it's not impossible. Still wiggle room time.

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The meso models are in the nw camp The mm5 is se of ACK, but still not far from the Island. We were saying how H5 is so strong and could force it nw. You can see on all models that isobars are pointed nwd along the eastern seaboard, probably due to the strong baroclinic boundary. I don't know about the canal track..but I suppose it's not impossible. Still wiggle room time.

What grid is the MM5 at? Isn't the NAM comparable to the Euro?

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This scenario is unfolding in predictable fashion with January 2005 and December 2009 being the outliers. A few days out extreme SE New England is in the bullseye....then the models bring it farther NW the closer we get to the event and we start talking about the dreaded yet all too typical change to rain for SE areas.

Yep. I get some wet flakes then 1" of rain before getting dryslotted. :axe:

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As much as I want that to be the case for mby, I really don't think we're at the point where there's serious talk about a change to rain. It's one run which was a big shift from six hours earlier. It's a run that's in the face of all other guidance.

Of course, I'll continue to hope and dream.

Well Most all of the guidance came NW some today, Not to the extent of the Nam but they trended that way..........

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yeah...i wasn't saying your a fool to use it at all. verbatim it would probably work out right for a good chunk of the zone. i was just responding to his post. the 925 temps get above 0C all the way past the canal on that run so it would be hard to envision the 8 inches it had out here or whatever it was...

True but if you look closely, the product draws the 12-18 SE border exactly where the H925 temps go above.

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Thanks. I could envision a quick 4-7" dump before any changeover with that type of track. Probably 2-5 for you

What a total let-down!!! 5 inches of slop followed by rain, fog, lots of puddles and a worthless half inch of snow on the backside. I'm totally buying this solution because we almost always see this scenario play out. At least the water's warm enough to go swimming down here the entire month of September.

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What a total let-down!!! 5 inches of slop followed by rain, fog, lots of puddles and a worthless half inch of snow on the backside. I'm totally buying this solution because we almost always see this scenario play out. At least the water's warm enough to go swimming down here the entire month of September.

:weenie:

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Somebody should bring up the map for the Dec 9 2005 map again.. I really think those totals could verify.... nice deform band in central NH and Vermont..

I hope it doesn't though, cause MHT only got 10" lol

I had 13-14" on the West side of town for that storm...near Pinardville/Goffstown.
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In reference to December 9th, 2005:

I'm really not sure how this looks like the Holy 12/9/05 storm in the way it hits us At All. Then, the comma head came Across us West to East, and that's where we got our main dose of snow. With This storm, we get the snow from the Front-End / Top part of the forming comma head as it moves North through us.

I don't see how That particular aspect is similar......

SPOILER Alert - I'm in Los Angeles until Monday!!!! I'm going to miss my First 10" Snowstorm Ever! Nooooo!! Here for the NAMM music convention. As much as I don't want this to hit cause I, The Snowman who Lives for these storms, will miss it, I pray for it to be almost as good as December, 2005.

Something More like my other 2 favorites - Dec. 13, 2007 and my Man February 7th, 2003.

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