Arnold214 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 could be one of the more intense ccb's to hit new eng since 12/09/05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thanks. I could envision a quick 4-7" dump before any changeover with that type of track. Probably 2-5 for you I'd agree with that...if the NAM found an acorn here I'd get a few inches before it changed with that track...soundings be damned. The guy from northern maine is still going to be rootin tootin mad but I'd be happy at SR this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 could be one of the more intense ccb's to hit new eng since 12/09/05. Is this more progressive than the blizzard a couple of weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This scenario is unfolding in predictable fashion with January 2005 and December 2009 being the outliers. A few days out extreme SE New England is in the bullseye....then the models bring it farther NW the closer we get to the event and we start talking about the dreaded yet all too typical change to rain for SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 No...it was 2' of snow in the CT River valley. I lived in Westfield at the time. Best snows I ever encoutnered. I thoguth it was an SWFE--was it a Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'd agree with that...if the NAM found an acorn here I'd get a few inches before it changed with that track...soundings be damned. The guy from northern maine is still going to be rootin tootin mad but I'd be happy at SR this weekend. You would be carving up there as i would be carving with my sled here........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM in the GOM?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 . . . Warnings up into northern N.J., and it looks like the watches have been extended futher North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I lived in Westfield at the time. Best snows I ever encoutnered. I thoguth it was an SWFE--was it a Miller B? Miller B. You won't see 2' of snow in a swfe because the mid level centers go to your west, which is why it's a swfe.....because your wind in the mid levels is from the sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Soundings are fine, surface temps warm but...anyway who cares it's the NAM will be a totally different solution in 6 hours. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This scenario is unfolding in predictable fashion with January 2005 and December 2009 being the outliers. A few days out extreme SE New England is in the bullseye....then the models bring it farther NW the closer we get to the event and we start talking about the dreaded yet all too typical change to rain for SE areas. As much as I want that to be the case for mby, I really don't think we're at the point where there's serious talk about a change to rain. It's one run which was a big shift from six hours earlier. It's a run that's in the face of all other guidance. Of course, I'll continue to hope and dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The meso models are in the nw camp The mm5 is se of ACK, but still not far from the Island. We were saying how H5 is so strong and could force it nw. You can see on all models that isobars are pointed nwd along the eastern seaboard, probably due to the strong baroclinic boundary. I don't know about the canal track..but I suppose it's not impossible. Still wiggle room time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 if he can find it under the snow. haha I got about 14" in the "blizzard". The thing is, it was a true 14". Heavy heavy...... I sent you a pm, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 could be one of the more intense ccb's to hit new eng since 12/09/05. I may be camping out Tues night/ Wed morn. This one is going to be fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 The meso models are in the nw camp The mm5 is se of ACK, but still not far from the Island. We were saying how H5 is so strong and could force it nw. You can see on all models that isobars are pointed nwd along the eastern seaboard, probably due to the strong baroclinic boundary. I don't know about the canal track..but I suppose it's not impossible. Still wiggle room time. What grid is the MM5 at? Isn't the NAM comparable to the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I may be camping out Tues night/ Wed morn. This one is going to be fun to watch unfold. If you are, just camp in front of the flood light and turn the computer off.......enjoy:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This scenario is unfolding in predictable fashion with January 2005 and December 2009 being the outliers. A few days out extreme SE New England is in the bullseye....then the models bring it farther NW the closer we get to the event and we start talking about the dreaded yet all too typical change to rain for SE areas. Yep. I get some wet flakes then 1" of rain before getting dryslotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 As much as I want that to be the case for mby, I really don't think we're at the point where there's serious talk about a change to rain. It's one run which was a big shift from six hours earlier. It's a run that's in the face of all other guidance. Of course, I'll continue to hope and dream. Well Most all of the guidance came NW some today, Not to the extent of the Nam but they trended that way.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yeah...i wasn't saying your a fool to use it at all. verbatim it would probably work out right for a good chunk of the zone. i was just responding to his post. the 925 temps get above 0C all the way past the canal on that run so it would be hard to envision the 8 inches it had out here or whatever it was... True but if you look closely, the product draws the 12-18 SE border exactly where the H925 temps go above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Scott, is this system more progressive than the blizzard was.....because I know the blizzard was fairly progressive, as well. When will you begin to be able to focus on the guidance that flagged the banding potential near NYC in that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Somebody should bring up the map for the Dec 9 2005 map again.. I really think those totals could verify.... nice deform band in central NH and Vermont.. I hope it doesn't though, cause MHT only got 10" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 meh SREFs held the course oh nammy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thanks. I could envision a quick 4-7" dump before any changeover with that type of track. Probably 2-5 for you What a total let-down!!! 5 inches of slop followed by rain, fog, lots of puddles and a worthless half inch of snow on the backside. I'm totally buying this solution because we almost always see this scenario play out. At least the water's warm enough to go swimming down here the entire month of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well Most all of the guidance came NW some today, Not to the extent of the Nam but they trended that way.......... I disagree....the SREFs nudged se, the EURO and GFS essentially held serve and from what I gathered, the UK swallowed a pistol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 . . . Warnings up into northern N.J., and it looks like the watches have been extended futher North. One thing that can be issued for everyone in this subforum is limited sleep warnings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What a total let-down!!! 5 inches of slop followed by rain, fog, lots of puddles and a worthless half inch of snow on the backside. I'm totally buying this solution because we almost always see this scenario play out. At least the water's warm enough to go swimming down here the entire month of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Somebody should bring up the map for the Dec 9 2005 map again.. I really think those totals could verify.... nice deform band in central NH and Vermont.. I hope it doesn't though, cause MHT only got 10" lol I had 13-14" on the West side of town for that storm...near Pinardville/Goffstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What grid is the MM5 at? Isn't the NAM comparable to the Euro? I think they run it down to 4km? The NAM is 12km and Euro 16km?? I may be wrong with this..someone else can chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well Most all of the guidance came NW some today, Not to the extent of the Nam but they trended that way.......... I'm keeping my 4-6" prediction, but it admittedly is looking like I could go 6-9". Keep the good juju going ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 In reference to December 9th, 2005: I'm really not sure how this looks like the Holy 12/9/05 storm in the way it hits us At All. Then, the comma head came Across us West to East, and that's where we got our main dose of snow. With This storm, we get the snow from the Front-End / Top part of the forming comma head as it moves North through us. I don't see how That particular aspect is similar...... SPOILER Alert - I'm in Los Angeles until Monday!!!! I'm going to miss my First 10" Snowstorm Ever! Nooooo!! Here for the NAMM music convention. As much as I don't want this to hit cause I, The Snowman who Lives for these storms, will miss it, I pray for it to be almost as good as December, 2005. Something More like my other 2 favorites - Dec. 13, 2007 and my Man February 7th, 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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