40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah, probably. GFS probably b*tch slaps us back to the 8-14'' reality, which is still nothing to sneeze at. I'll take this run about 30-40 miles to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think you made a baby with the 18z NAM. Here's the ultrasound. Prepare for a paternity test. what is this I don't even? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah, it's a tough solution to buy given the disparity between the 12z run even at 6h. I wouldn't mind it verifying though. That would be some uber snowfall rates. you still think your not going to mix? i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Like to see that a bit quicker. Snows for 20hrs for most of us from Mass north.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Stalled or meandering just east of PWM.... It got lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Biggest swath of 12-18 I've seen yet anywhere on any graphic. From just s of PYM including all of SNE almost up into PWM. Toss it. Lower levels must be fricken cold if 12-18 fingers all the way down to PYM with that typically unfavorable track for se mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Didn't Mike say something about visiting Attleboro? if he can find it under the snow. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'd take this solution. Probably 2-3/hour for 6 hours or more before any dryslot and verbatim it actually occludes before it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z nam Jackpot ......Hubba dave? Wa Wa i like how she slows down as she gets up by our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The euro ensembles are very close...perhaps 10 miles or so west of the op..if you want to get greedy. The differences is a little more noticeable at hr 60. I'm greedy...every mile counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Fun to look at, but tossing this one. The changes at SIX HOURS in are hilarious. We'll see what the GFS and the 00z runs bring. But this run looks like 100% pure crap so you think it's good? the good thing for a lot of the area (folks like you in CNE who nearly slid down a slide of razor blades this morning) is regardless of whether this run verifies or not most folks in S/CNE can feel pretty good that they aren't going to see it vaporize and only end up with a T-2" type of deal. the nuances of who gets what aren't ready to be pinned down quite yet but a lot of the people who post in here are going to do OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah, it's a tough solution to buy given the disparity between the 12z run even at 6h. I wouldn't mind it verifying though. That would be some uber snowfall rates. It jumped towards the GFS but right after h12 it deviates quickly. The NAM continues to prove even in this new "easier" pattern it's totally unable to place vorticity even in the short range among a lot of other problems. It's totally useless as this point outside of 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah DS gets to ORH and near ASH, but not before a massive snow bomb..lol. It does have comma head resemblance to Dec '05. I was just looking at the H5/H7 omega and RH up here too. I think there would be some surprisingly hefty totals up here if this verified, but it's unlikely. This will be one of those storms where we'll see which mets lean more toward the NAM or the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Lower levels must be fricken cold if 12-18 fingers all the way down to PYM with that typically unfavorable track for se mass the product that jerry is using is kinda crappy (i have it too and it's just an algorithm made by the modelers...it isn't particularly detailed or anything like that) it even has like 2 to 4" on ACK on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'd take this solution. Probably 2-3/hour for 6 hours or more before any dryslot and verbatim it actually occludes before it happens. It does toss us 1.75", but I dislike the trend close to a dryslot on recent runs of the NAM. Thankfully, it seems to be on the extreme end of the full set of model solutions; the overall consensus has us in a spot I rather like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Can a brotha get a clown map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the product that jerry is using is kinda crappy (i have it too and it's just an algorithm made by the modelers...it isn't particularly detailed or anything like that) it even has like 2 to 4" on ACK on that run. Right. But the BL temps are also surprising cold everywhere west of the low center so that lends credence to me at least in part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Can a brotha get a clown map? The typical ones from earl barker's site come out around or just after 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 At least a model is showing QPF that can equate to 20" totals. Too bad it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Right. But the BL temps are also surprising cold everywhere west of the low center so that lends credence to me at least in part. yeah...i wasn't saying your a fool to use it at all. verbatim it would probably work out right for a good chunk of the zone. i was just responding to his post. the 925 temps get above 0C all the way past the canal on that run so it would be hard to envision the 8 inches it had out here or whatever it was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I was just looking at the H5/H7 omega and RH up here too. I think there would be some surprisingly hefty totals up here if this verified, but it's unlikely. This will be one of those storms where we'll see which mets lean more toward the NAM or the globals. Really, It takes a similar track to the 06z and last nights 00z run up the coast but it goes about 100 miles further NNE once it reaches SNE before it heads ENE........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So, if any other guidance comes in with 18+" IMBY I may have to put a note on my midterm Friday: "Was unable to study due to tracking/enjoying an 18" snowstorm." lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Will or Mets.. does the 18z Nam show any similarity to Feb 5 2001? Complete snow bomb for about 10-12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yeah...i wasn't saying your a fool to use it at all. verbatim it would probably work out right for a good chunk of the zone. i was just responding to his post. the 925 temps get above 0C all the way past the canal on that run so it would be hard to envision the 8 inches it had out here or whatever it was... Warm layers elsewhere too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Will or Mets.. does the 18z Nam show any similarity to Feb 5 2001? Complete snow bomb for about 10-12 hours Wasn't that an SWFE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 As it starts to pinch off, but there's a sneaky warm layer in there or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yeah...i wasn't saying your a fool to use it at all. verbatim it would probably work out right for a good chunk of the zone. i was just responding to his post. the 925 temps get above 0C all the way past the canal on that run so it would be hard to envision the 8 inches it had out here or whatever it was... Thanks. I could envision a quick 4-7" dump before any changeover with that type of track. Probably 2-5 for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wasn't that an SWFE? No...it was 2' of snow in the CT River valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Soundings are fine, surface temps warm but...anyway who cares it's the NAM will be a totally different solution in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wasn't that an SWFE? No.. it was a Miller b.. precipitation shield formed off the Delmarva out of no where like this one and intensified rapidly.. some rates were 4-5" per hour in NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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