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Coastal Storm Potential - Jan 11-12 II


Baroclinic Zone

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Logan doesn't have to mix if the CF is west of them...it just means they are a few degrees warmer than W of the CF....31-32F vs mid and upper 20s.

That happened to BOS in 2/78 and they stayed all snow east of the CF and a little above freezing for a while. It happened on eastern LI in 1/2005. Not uncommon. Often it is short lived and the CF crashes back seaward.

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I'm not complaining...just expressing an opinion.

I will not get over a foot if the cf never makes it out of Boston and away from the immediate N shore.

This is a rule of thumb that I have recently began to implement after years of observation, here.

I'm sure you can look through the Kocin book and find exceptions, but it works more often than not.

Jan 2005 was an exception, but that event was not of a normal scale.

I think you cracked a foot in Feb '06 and the CF never got close. Not that we really think that event was amazing or anything.

This storm is a bit unique in how intense the commahead might be. Duration is the only limiting factor though some guidance is trying to prolong it a bit. A CF along 128 for a time would probably lock in over a foot for you. You still might crack it without it though....with still 36h to go though its better to err on the side of caution about potential things that can go wrong.

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I'm not complaining...just expressing an opinion.

I will not get over a foot if the cf never makes it out of Boston and away from the immediate N shore.

This is a rule of thumb that I have recently began to implement after years of observation, here.

I'm sure you can look through the Kocin book and find exceptions, but it works more often than not.

Jan 2005 was an exception, but that event was not of a normal scale.

Yeah I know what you mean, but I would have been screwed in the last storm if it weren't for the low level stuff, because mid levels sucked. At least in this one...I think we are all better off in the mid levels, so you have that going for you.

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I'm can be about as brash and nauseating as they come, but even I never dreamed of entering a ma subforum and posting something the likes of that garbage.

lol...he's part of our region. It's a bad time and place to vent frustrations, but it has been tough for N ME with that damn elephant. Maybe we need a venting thread. :snowman:
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i kinda wish this had a stronger HP centered perhaps over quebec.

after the boxing day "blizzard". I think mets talked about having a cold dome or HP closeby and how that translated better into a large shield of Heavy moisture over spreading the area. instead of the banding.

I see some of the same signs on the boxing day blizzard regarding deform banding (just a bit further South) like in E Jersey . but perhaps not like the sheered precip over SNE. It seems a robust CCB is a lock for this storm....i just wonder how a stronger HP to our N may have aided precip expansion/ development more?

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i kinda wish this had a stronger HP centered perhaps over quebec.

after the boxing day "blizzard". I think mets talked about having a cold dome or HP closeby and how that translated better into a large shield of Heavy moisture over spreading the area. instead of the banding.

I see some of the same signs on the boxing day blizzard regarding deform banding (just a bit further South) like in E Jersey . but perhaps not like the sheered precip over SNE. It seems a robust CCB is a lock for this storm....i just wonder how a stronger HP to our N may have aided precip expansion/ development more?

much better this go around compared to that event.

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I'm can be about as brash and nauseating as they come, but even I never dreamed of entering a ma subforum and posting something the likes of that garbage.

Yes, And i had mentioned that there were some in SNE that could be like i was this am when i went on a mini tirade, But certainly not to that extreme...........

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i kinda wish this had a stronger HP centered perhaps over quebec.

after the boxing day "blizzard". I think mets talked about having a cold dome or HP closeby and how that translated better into a large shield of Heavy moisture over spreading the area. instead of the banding.

I see some of the same signs on the boxing day blizzard regarding deform banding (just a bit further South) like in E Jersey . but perhaps not like the sheered precip over SNE. It seems a robust CCB is a lock for this storm....i just wonder how a stronger HP to our N may have aided precip expansion/ development more?

it isn't a super high or anything this time...but much more of a high than the last storm. That central plains high is extending an arm through Quebec.

gfs_slp_036l.gif

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I think you cracked a foot in Feb '06 and the CF never got close. Not that we really think that event was amazing or anything.

This storm is a bit unique in how intense the commahead might be. Duration is the only limiting factor though some guidance is trying to prolong it a bit. A CF along 128 for a time would probably lock in over a foot for you. You still might crack it without it though....with still 36h to go though its better to err on the side of caution about potential things that can go wrong.

Yea, that is probably how I should have approached it, as opposed to asserting that it was absolutely necessary......but you can understand why Dec 2003, PDII and now the blizzard have me a bit gun shy regarding systems exhbiting surpressed coastal frontogenesis.

I'm prone to substinence when it stays along the immediate shore, but the intense VVs in the system maybe able to compensate....we'll see.

I'm confident the cf will not make rt 128, though.....once upon a time, that was common place.

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LOL at Ray

I am going to be one greedy muther****a with this storm. I want to be in the jackpot and I feel pretty confident about that right now. Screw everybody else.

Only way to play it IMO.. Short of everyone getting the jackpot, I want it on me as does everyone else. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. No need to feel guilty or get angry at those getting it this time for being excited.

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lol...he's part of our region. It's a bad time and place to vent frustrations, but it has been tough for N ME with that damn elephant. Maybe we need a venting thread. :snowman:

I know you're joking, but I was honestly going to start one at a few different points...but I just decided to cool it, instead.

No prob with what he said, just with where he said it.

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