weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't think so either, but if the CF sets up over Ray, Logan WILL necessarily mix...but i agree, as of now it seems the jackpot could be Sharon again. No! It will limit the rate but that happens all the time in 100% snow events in Boston. When BOS gets 13 inches and Ray gets 22, that's exactly why. Dynamics on the warmer side mean it's 31 and lighter snow while Ray is 19 and ripping. Sometimes its a transition zone of ptype but this storm doesn't have that signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well it definitely looks like all the globals moved NW at 12z. NAM moved a tick SE. Looks like they are honing in on a solution. Yeah, at this point I'd like to see some of the models spitting out a general 1.5-2" to go gung-ho with amounts approaching 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 will how are the 2m temps in SNE on the euro? Cold. Only place that goes above freezing is far SE MA and maybe SE RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thanks Sam. I will text you once I am out of basic training. Good luck, bro......10 years ago in May I oarded a plane for Paris Island, Sc..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I am sure they've waited to review all of the 12z data. 4pm issuance. They'll hoist Warnings for just about all of their CWA. that was what I suspected, winter storm warnings, i bet some counties will get the heavy snow warnings the best warning money can buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 JMA no idea where it's been prior etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what is taunton going to wait till the storm hits to update their package? storm totals not updated since early the AM discussion not updated since 8 or so. The evening shift will update everything (~5pm). Patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what is taunton going to wait till the storm hits to update their package? storm totals not updated since early the AM discussion not updated since 8 or so. Dude--the storms 30-36 hours away. Cool the jets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Quick and dirty QPF 0.10" line: BTV-HUL 0.25" line: RUT-BML-MLT 0.50" line: DDH-LEB-IZG-Eastport 1.00" line: HVN-BDL-ORE-ASH-PSM any idea on KCON? I suck at figuring out those ASOS codes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You thinking 15:1 or a little better being that cold.... It's all variable. There should be good ratios in the banding and 10-12:1 type stuff outside of them. I think a general 12-15:1 sounds good. Some may do a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Guys, approximated timetable for the snow's onset at BOS and IZG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 any idea on KCON? I suck at figuring out those ASOS codes. CON get about 0.70-0.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Good luck, bro......10 years ago in May I oarded a plane for Paris Island, Sc..... Good luck and thank you CCPSUSuperstorm2010! I boarded a plane on Jan 3rd, 33 years ago, for Camp Pendleton, CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Guys, approximated timetable for the snow's onset at BOS and IZG? BOS 3AM, IZG 6AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah, at this point I'd like to see some of the models spitting out a general 1.5-2" to go gung-ho with amounts approaching 20". Thing is though if the GFS ENS or OP Euro are within 10-15% on the QPF it's a 10-20" snowstorm regionwide with temps the way they are and probably 8-16 as we approach the coast/cc -- Here's the crazy uncle ukie....pretty easy to see where it's different at 500, doesn't have a breakoff lobe of vorticity to it's error or coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 BOS 3AM, IZG 6AM Jer, obviously Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 nobody out in GC should give up on this one yet. The meso models by tommorrow morning/ noon should be deveoping a good handle on where the banding / deform ....set's up. Unless you've been under a rock you have heard mets pimp these models with this storm (within their time range) in paticular. I think a 25 mile Tick NW or not is going to pale in comparison *(for GC folk) to where these Meso models (which are suprisingly good in my time following them) show deform bands settin up..... someone could correct me but i think about 18 hours out is where their accuracy is damn good regarding banding . so i would focus alot less on modeled QPF (for GC folk and perhaps SNH as well) since i don't think globals account for these meso scale features....which from all accounts i've heard about this storm are gonna be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 wwlp weighs in on the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 any idea on KCON? I suck at figuring out those ASOS codes. Split the difference or so I guess: ~0.75. The NAM has 0.75" for CON and the GFS is 0.61". So I think we're honing in. I'd say 6-10" looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I feel guilty for ever defending the Ukie lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Even the RGEM/GGEM have a similar lobe coming up close/at us...it's really just the UKMET that doesnt have it at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I feel like all of the people who are putting out snowfall maps right now are just riding QPF so hard and not taking into account ratios or anything like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The 12Z NAM is actually quite a bit less for NNE this run. So it may be falling for in line with the other models, but I would be more than happy with this as an outcome. Let's just hope this will be a trend for the GFS. Yea, I liked the 06z run better. This is 2004-05, displaced about 30-40 miles to the NNW......Brockton winter as opposed to Carver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Dude--the storms 30-36 hours away. Cool the jets. Tomorrow's going to a long day. The track seems pretty well set, so it'll be a long day/night of watching radar and staring at my flood lights like an idiot looking for the first flakes. Big difference from the last couple events where things were never really set in stone until after the snow started. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I feel like all of the people who are putting out snowfall maps right now are just riding QPF so hard and not taking into account ratios or anything like that I do agree with that... Many far interior areas will come up with near or over a foot due to banding and ratios with lower qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I feel guilty for ever defending the Ukie lol. It had that stretch last year at the beginning of the winter where it was nailing everything...basically October to New Years. Since then its kind of gone back to being a crazy model that sometimes scores a big coup, but its lacked that big coup recently. I'm sure it will bounce back, its not the Euro but its not as bad as its been recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Even the RGEM/GGEM have a similar lobe coming up close/at us...it's really just the UKMET that doesnt have it at this stage. Ukmet is a clear outlier at this point and I will take the NAM/Euro/GFS FTW on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 that was what I suspected, winter storm warnings, i bet some counties will get the heavy snow warnings the best warning money can buy. Those don't exist anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tomorrow's going to a long day. The track seems pretty well set, so it'll be a long day/night of watching radar and staring at my flood lights like an idiot looking for the first flakes. Big difference from the last couple events where things were never really set in stone until after the snow started. Good luck! You better put on the coffee--first falkes aren't coming in until after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I do agree with that... Many far interior areas will come up with near or over a foot due to banding and ratios with lower qpf yeah, excuse my IMBY'ing but with a high in the upper 20s and with .75-1" QPF it's hard to believe we won't end up with nearly a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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