MJHUB Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Welcome! I'm in the west bay area - mostly a lurker. I agree on the lower ratios issue. Work up near the dump, if your in Western Cranston ratios might be better 10:1, the thing working in favor of 10:1 is the timframe of the storm, still looking at 12-18 my bet, I live 2 min from Attleboro border and its usually 2 degrees colder than PVD Cranstons temps are usually in line in East Cranston but Western cranston sees temps lower expecaially closer you get to 295. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wind gusted pretty good here but I could hear it absolutely howling up high when I walked the dog. Did you get your snow blower working? Hopefully you need it Wed! I did. Got home from MD at 4:30 yesterday and went right to work to clear the drive. Got up this morning to find all the wind that was blown from the lawn was deposited on my drive. Oh, well. That's Wednesday's project. Did/when do the EC ensembles become available? Eager to see how they compare to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well it definitely looks like all the globals moved NW at 12z. NAM moved a tick SE. Looks like they are honing in on a solution. Was a good trend, Just took a little bitching to get it to move that way........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm afraid it's going to get hung up along the immediate n shore and boston...like the blizzard. Bad news, here. You should be under a strong deformation band and have much better coverage with the mid and upper dynamics if they transpire as progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well it definitely looks like all the globals moved NW at 12z. NAM moved a tick SE. Looks like they are honing in on a solution. get some good rest? lol. yeah...something just outside of ACK looking like a fair bet now. have to assume the UKMET is a POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well it definitely looks like all the globals moved NW at 12z. NAM moved a tick SE. Looks like they are honing in on a solution. will you still like the meso models think there is room/ likelikhood this may tuck in a little closer to the central NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think Ray FINALLY get's on the right end of the CF in this storm imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 2m temps are plenty below freezing. 850s look cold on the EC. The GFS has some decent omega at CON from H7-H5 after 12z Wed and the -12C to -18C zone runs from about H7-H6. I'd think we'd see some pretty decent snow growth and ratios during that time for our region. You thinking 15:1 or a little better being that cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 get some good rest? lol. yeah...something just outside of ACK looking like a fair bet now. have to assume the UKMET is a POS Yeah....even crazy uncle moved NW but its still the SE outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrokenASOS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That where i think we end up unless we see another shift North...... Truth. I mean some of the SREF members (I want to say 6) gave the southeastern coast of Maine aoa 1" qpf and all snow. But that's just eye candy at this point. The overall SREF mean has been pretty consistent if I remember correctly and they pump out a solid 0.75-1" which would definitely be good for higher amounts--they just seem to be on their own at this point...save for the new Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I did. Got home from MD at 4:30 yesterday and went right to work to clear the drive. Got up this morning to find all the wind that was blown from the lawn was deposited on my drive. Oh, well. That's Wednesday's project. Did/when do the EC ensembles become available? Eager to see how they compare to the op. here here keep the faith mike ens NW of op ...could mean sick deformation band out by you (i think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think Ray FINALLY get's on the right end of the CF in this storm imho. in that case, do u think Logan mixes...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Euro has small events d5-6 and again d8-9 (larger and probably sloppier). I head to FL d9-10 and back for the torch d11...lol...though today's Euro looks not so torchsome. May have to buy the big man beer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 in that case, do u think Logan mixes...? Not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wicked tough. It's been terribke since the MLK storm last year. I've had only 23" since then -- nearly a full 365 days! wow that is tough! we've had about 3 feet since then, nickel dime and retrograde style. of course, that is well well well below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Truth. I mean some of the SREF members (I want to say 6) gave the southeastern coast of Maine aoa 1" qpf and all snow. But that's just eye candy at this point. The overall SREF mean has been pretty consistent if I remember correctly and they pump out a solid 0.75-1" which would definitely be good for higher amounts--they just seem to be on their own at this point...save for the new Euro. Good starting point, Can go up from there, Ratios should be decent, Certainly plenty cold and the low center is well east still....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not going to happen. I don't think so either, but if the CF sets up over Ray, Logan WILL necessarily mix...but i agree, as of now it seems the jackpot could be Sharon again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 wow that is tough! we've had about 3 feet since then, nickel dime and retrograde style. of course, that is well well well below normal. It has been, It been terrible up here since then........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah....even crazy uncle moved NW but its still the SE outlier itrs been so bad this year. (im sure someone will post verificaiton scores now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't think so either, but if the CF sets up over Ray, Logan WILL necessarily mix...but i agree, as of now it seems the jackpot could be Sharon again. Logan doesn't have to mix if the CF is west of them...it just means they are a few degrees warmer than W of the CF....31-32F vs mid and upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Work up near the dump, if your in Western Cranston ratios might be better 10:1, the thing working in favor of 10:1 is the timframe of the storm, still looking at 12-18 my bet, I live 2 min from Attleboro border and its usually 2 degrees colder than PVD Cranstons temps are usually in line in East Cranston but Western cranston sees temps lower expecaially closer you get to 295. I'm in eastern Cranston - on the warmer side. The snowfall gradient from the bay to the western hills can be pretty impressive. The night time arrival is def. a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Logan doesn't have to mix if the CF is west of them...it just means they are a few degrees warmer than W of the CF....31-32F vs mid and upper 20s. makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 itrs been so bad this year. (im sure someone will post verificaiton scores now) i think it has been said that the UKIE scores better for other parts of the N. hemisphere and the score is not representative of the way it handles the NE. Conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what is taunton going to wait till the storm hits to update their package? storm totals not updated since early the AM discussion not updated since 8 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't think so either, but if the CF sets up over Ray, Logan WILL necessarily mix...but i agree, as of now it seems the jackpot could be Sharon again. no it won't.. CF doesn't mean the wrong side mixes... lol.. Ray was on the cold side and got subsidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Logan doesn't have to mix if the CF is west of them...it just means they are a few degrees warmer than W of the CF....31-32F vs mid and upper 20s. will how are the 2m temps in SNE on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 looks like boston should get hammered back through ORH and HFD as well i imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 what is taunton going to wait till the storm hits to update their package? storm totals not updated since early the AM discussion not updated since 8 or so. I am sure they've waited to review all of the 12z data. 4pm issuance. They'll hoist Warnings for just about all of their CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i think it has been said that the UKIE scores better for other parts of the N. hemisphere and the score is not representative of the way it handles the NE. Conus. ahhh ok good info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm in eastern Cranston - on the warmer side. The snowfall gradient from the bay to the western hills can be pretty impressive. The night time arrival is def. a good thing. I think the mixing will be an issue only in Washington County / newport. but even there not too long. one thing that has me worried about is the weekends snow will make snow that will fall stick a little quicker, driving will be brutal wednesday morning. already told the boss don't expect me haha, its great you are the "weather guy" at work I make the snowdays lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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