dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Every now and then it pays to piss and moan. The more northerly track is so key for us. Hitting the benchmark is great but it has to take the right trajectory afterwards for us. Hopefully this will continue and even improve. That was a pretty big shift up here on the euro from 00z to 12z qpf wise, Low was stronger as well hence the tug NW, Another jog NNW and it would not take much to be a significant event even up to the foothills....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well it appears we will do very well with his coming storm. Its been almost 2 years since we had a good one like this. I don't think Spfld area has had a storm over 10" since 07/08, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i remember how will said the meso models will probably be superior with this one......and the nam / euro compromise i think may be best bet. i wish euro had 6 hr panels available i'd like to see exactly how close to ACK this low passes and also the trajectory when it crosses the BM i just got in from work how has the 500 Low trendend last couple runs as well as the mid level lows? It's available to some of us. Close....20-30 at the most. Huge AM hit for most of SNE Wed morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Can anyone please speak about what the ratios are for ME, NH, MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Mike I think .75 qpf looks to be a safe bet out past you and I. N. Berk Co. may really start to tail off but I'm guessing with good ratios you hit double digits for totals. Thanks, Chris. Did you get all your snow blown away last night? Winds were pretty fierce up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Can anyone please speak about what the ratios are for ME, NH, MA? It should be at least 12:1 its pretty cold throughout the storm........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's available to some of us. Close....20-30 at the most. Huge AM hit for most of SNE Wed morning. yeah. nice run. i don't suspect will see a whole lot of change at this point. we really haven't seen much shifting around *in general* for basically 5 days on this one. shows how much easier it is for guidance to handle a s/w ejecting from the SW as opposed to multiple pieces of vorticity working SE under a PV. at this point, it's just time to try and figure out where the best mesoscale features line up. i still think the BOX map issued this morning is a pretty darn good estimate at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 are there any mixing issues on the euro? what are the temps like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I like that the Euro Ensembles are farthest west This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It should be at least 12:1 its pretty cold throughout the storm........ Based on the storm track and surface temps, I would hope it is closer to 15-1. "hope" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I would guess some retro action or a NNE track after the BM would be your ideal solution. must be tough to get a great storm for you with the blocking. Wicked tough. It's been terribke since the MLK storm last year. I've had only 23" since then -- nearly a full 365 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thanks, Chris. Did you get all your snow blown away last night? Winds were pretty fierce up here. Wind gusted pretty good here but I could hear it absolutely howling up high when I walked the dog. Did you get your snow blower working? Hopefully you need it Wed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Based on the storm track and surface temps, I would hope it is closer to 15-1. "hope" Thats why i said at least, It certainly should be closer to 15:1, -4/-8C in the 850's, 2M temps in the mid to high 20's........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 oh that Dec 09 that was epic, I got a beagle now so anythign more than 6 inches is the blizzard of 78' for him. lol. RI is my specialty litterlaly live 1 mile from the border. Taunton is 10 min down route 44. I am on the extreme opposite side of TAN by the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrokenASOS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Every now and then it pays to piss and moan. The more northerly track is so key for us. Hitting the benchmark is great but it has to take the right trajectory afterwards for us. Hopefully this will continue and even improve. Yeah, that little northward jog has to happen. I still think the global consensus looks really good...Euro (and to a lesser extent the GFS) have been solid continuing the low on the NE or E track after the BM. 12Z GEM seems to have come into better alignment as well which would point towards us getting okay snows. I've also gotta think that ratios with this thing can't be higher than 10 or 11 to 1--there's probably going to be some decent snowgrowth, but those high winds at the low levels are probably going to fracture most of the good dendrites. Still, I think we're golden for a good 4-8. I'd love to be proven wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't think Spfld area has had a storm over 10" since 07/08, correct? Yes it was been a looong time..'08 was that last good one. Can't remember exactly when.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 still don't do those for ALY huh? I think the first time they used it was for the last storm. It's not updated, but here is the link: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/WSW.htm http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/aly/WinterPage.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I would think 8-14" is a good first call IMBY. Im actually shocked that they upgraded the WSW from 7-12" to 10-14" this early but I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah, that little northward jog has to happen. I still think the global consensus looks really good...Euro (and to a lesser extent the GFS) have been solid continuing the low on the NE or E track after the BM. 12Z GEM seems to have come into better alignment as well which would point towards us getting okay snows. I've also gotta think that ratios with this thing can't be higher than 10 or 11 to 1--there's probably going to be some decent snowgrowth, but those high winds at the low levels are probably going to fracture most of the good dendrites. Still, I think we're golden for a good 4-8. I'd love to be proven wrong though. That where i think we end up unless we see another shift North...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I am on the extreme opposite side of TAN by the airport. More near middleboro i suspect then, you must have done better than I did with the blizzard, and this storm looks to be as fierce for you too. must be hard with the radar interference getting quality readings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 You think you break 20"? That would be the upper limit IMO for anyone. I think 12-18" is about 60-70% a lock right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yeah agree. my current thinking is r/s line makes it to very near MBY for a while before collapsing seaward. some of that stuff will be hard to determine until game time. the calendar is a bit more favorable now then say 15 to 30 days ago. ray should see his CF fetish realized...maybe in a big way. I'm afraid it's going to get hung up along the immediate n shore and boston...like the blizzard. Bad news, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yes it was been a looong time..'08 was that last good one. Can't remember exactly when.. Dec. 08 probably counts as two storms technically, but in my mind I think of it as one. What a great snowy couple days. One of my all time favs. Hope you do well tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm afraid it's going to get hung up along the immediate n shore and boston...like the blizzard. Bad news, here. I think everything is going to end up like the blizzard, just a tick to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The Bay I would think plays into my thinking, after seeing the Taunton map plus the forcast temps of up to 35 degrees on Wed, I tend to be conservitive, no doubt the effects in PVD metro will be greater than the boxing day bilzzard. OT- are there a lot of RI/Eastern Mass posters? Welcome! I'm in the west bay area - mostly a lurker. I agree on the lower ratios issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well it definitely looks like all the globals moved NW at 12z. NAM moved a tick SE. Looks like they are honing in on a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm afraid it's going to get hung up along the immediate n shore and boston...like the blizzard. Bad news, here. i wouldn't draw comparisons to that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How does the snowgrowth look? Don't want any of that pellet crap this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm afraid it's going to get hung up along the immediate n shore and boston...like the blizzard. Bad news, here. Ray, you still picked up 12 from the "Blizzard" that's pretty good. Better than the 6" I got from the 12 plus that was forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thats why i said at least, It certainly should be closer to 15:1, -4/-8C in the 850's, 2M temps in the mid to high 20's........... 2m temps are plenty below freezing. 850s look cold on the EC. The GFS has some decent omega at CON from H7-H5 after 12z Wed and the -12C to -18C zone runs from about H7-H6. I'd think we'd see some pretty decent snow growth and ratios during that time for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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