Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 nice little trend on the GFS for CT...nothing huge...but enough to give me confidence that my thoughts of 8" min for everyone in the state are looking pretty good. 8-14" starting to look like the best bet...with some higher lollies in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 500mb low starting to redevelop at hr48. Overall, a notable shift toward the 12z NAM That just made my damn day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 My early guess is 6-10" in western areas and trending towards as much as a doubling of that as you head East/Southeast to a jackpot zone (pending ratios). The good news is that it seems all of SNE and much of CNE will get some decent snow. Seems a relatively low risk of mixing for coastal areas (read: jackpot along 495) My pre-dawn thoughts intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Much better placement of the low for me, instead of shooting east, it comes more north into the Gulf of Maine, and is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not sure if this was already posted. Looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Think we can lock 12-18 after 12 z as long as Euro holds serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think this is underdone but not bad verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Think we can lock 12-18 after 12 z as long as Euro holds serve ...I think that's a bit high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 gfs total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 My pre-dawn thoughts intact. 6" form the day after christmas storm, 3" from this past weekend andnow possibly another 6". WOW maybe we will be able to break our 18" total from last year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 6-12 right back to the NW MA border... This is only until early afternoon wed right? hopefully more to come further north and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Think we can lock 12-18 after 12 z as long as Euro holds serve Yeah models still can move around, hopefully those that were all upset feel a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS seems more expansive with qpf further north and west which makes sense. The 0.5 line through 66 hours is probably 50 north of the NH border. Totally screws ME though and given everything that it is depicting that doesn't make alot of sense. I think it makes sense Weathafella for the same reason the CCB missed here last time, it's going to be moving NE or ENE aloft. -- Isn't there a theory that the UK portends the upcoming EC? FWIW, it's still east...maybe wobbled west a little at first glance. So the RGEM/UK versus the NAM/GFS and probably Euro. I'm kind of surprised the UK has stayed this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Think we can lock 12-18 after 12 z as long as Euro holds serve You are in jackpot position on that BOX map if Tolland is where I think it is.. Did they add the extra .1 special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ...I think that's a bit high. Unless you're name is Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 UL flow on the coast backing notably more. This run should come west AKT (As Kevin Thought) Obviously inside the BM puts bigger smiles on the faces of those of us west but as was pointed out earlier this looks more and more to be a decent event area wide so nobody in SNE should be complaining come wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think the GFS trend is good, it is a little more juiced and northwest, but I still think it is underdoing the precip extend in the north over S NH and S Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Think we can lock 12-18 after 12 z as long as Euro holds serve 10-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not sure if this was already posted. Looks good! LOL - jackpot over my house. Not sure I buy into this. Wasn't it just yesterday when the heavy snow zone was western southern New England/ NYC? Seems like the heaviest amounts are shifting east as time goes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Whatever amount I get, I hope doesn't blow areas of my lawn bare like happened both after 12/26 and again last night. Snow covered road and bare spots on the lawn. Something wrong with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 UKMET is actually quite nice qpf wise it seems. Remember we're missing panels at 54 hours which is the peak of the storm. It brings better snow further north. It's definitely west of 0Z but not by alot. Again.....ride the Euro....this is the type of system it does best with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 A little more nw with the qpf shield too. This should at least help Sam loosen the noose. I wasn't complaining about MBY! I was just trying to convince some people (north of I90) that the 12z NAM wasn't worth the parade they were giving it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Unless you're name is Bob. I'm a happy man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Whatever amount I get, I hope doesn't blow areas of my lawn bare like happened both after 12/26 and again last night. Snow covered road and bare spots on the lawn. Something wrong with that. Haven't heard mush discussion about wind strength and size of the wind field. I'm assuming not as impressive as the post Xmas storm? Maybe just the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think it makes sense Weathafella for the same reason the CCB missed here last time, it's going to be moving NE or ENE aloft. -- Isn't there a theory that the UK portends the upcoming EC? FWIW, it's still east...maybe wobbled west a little at first glance. So the RGEM/UK versus the NAM/GFS and probably Euro. I'm kind of surprised the UK has stayed this far east. Crazy Uncle blows. It may have hit the most recent event but it was pure luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 UKMET is actually quite nice qpf wise it seems. Remember we're missing panels at 54 hours which is the peak of the storm. It brings better snow further north. It's definitely west of 0Z but not by alot. Again.....ride the Euro....this is the type of system it does best with. Kevin says not to get hung up on QPF. Kevin says 12-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The GFS looks good for sw NH down through central and western mass..just looking at how the mid levels look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Kevin says not to get hung up on QPF. Kevin says 12-18. We'll get 8+. That's about the best I can come up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 9z SREF probabilities of a foot or more nearing 35-45% in the Boston-PVD corridor!!! thats very high this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 UKMET is actually quite nice qpf wise it seems. Remember we're missing panels at 54 hours which is the peak of the storm. It brings better snow further north. It's definitely west of 0Z but not by alot. Again.....ride the Euro....this is the type of system it does best with. Maybe in the end but it's well east of the GFS. I'm only pointing it out...historical perspective etc. It's been verifying pretty well the last few days at 500 so it's interesting to note the differences. The white lines are where the gFS had all the heavy stuff. RGEM/UK are a pretty big deviation east from the american stuff, so sayeth whatever the Euro holds/shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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