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Coastal Storm Potential - Jan 11-12 II


Baroclinic Zone

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I think all you're seeing is the members from the north, who have been in a pretty serious snow drought since the beginning of 2010, have their frustrations come to a head when once again areas to the south get pounded. Of course, this storm hasn't happened yet so we can't go spiking the football but the overall look says this is an SNE storm.

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I feel ya bro. Don't take it personally. Someday we'll get a massive overrunning event funnelling into the valley while eastern MA gets mostly IP/ZR, and they'll congratulate us.

SREFs have us in the 100% zone for > 4", and I'll put the over/under at 7.5" for you and 6.5" for me (under -125). Decent chance here to double our seasonal totals.

i have about 9.5 inches for the season..how much do u have? I would be happy with a foot esp if it came down at two inches/hr for awhile.

We are both incredibly over due for double digit snowfalls here.

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Wow, sorry, I didn't know by referencing I95, that all the CT weenies would come out of the woodwork. YES, it's good for CT!

Fine, looks good south of the Pike! How's that?

well that's COMPLETELY different from what you said. You said it looked bad for anyone NW of I-95. South of the pike and NW of 95 is a HUGE area, did you really think people weren't gonna jump on the craziness of that statement?

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Another disaster for N. Maine.

All winter snow is being wasted on dilletantes who think snow's purpose is to be sculpted in to perfect snowbanks.

Suburban and city tyros who squeal delightedly when their snow cancels classes at the community college nearby.

Snow is lifes blood up here. Thousands of businesses are dependent upon it for their sustenance and it has not appeared at all.

An unprecedented economic disaster is unfolding up here in N. Maine. True hardship is upon us here because of this horrible pattern.

S. New England's snow is squandered there. It's a decorative nuisance. An embellishment for bus route weenies. Lack of snow for them is psychic pain only.

No snow for us is economic disaster. Your celebrations in S. New England are as thoughtless as your snow is pointless.

I write this as an ex-Cape Codder/Westonian.

Vim Toot

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I think we all kind of thought the NAM track over PYM was probably a bit much. A track near ACK (which very well may happen) is great for all of sne. It's a general heavy snow event even up to srn NH and ME. Even a track near the BM, in general is good for them. We can't say who gets screwed with pinpoint accuracy when we are 48-60 hours out. All I'm saying is that the NAM would bring heavy snow for a time to snh and srn ME, qpf aside. Even a track near the BM would bring heavier snows up that way for a time..obviously not like areas further south. I understand it could tick se, but that's a different story. If people want to be pessimistic because of that, then by all means do. I'm just trying to point out, that qpf is not the end all/be all.

I think it takes a track BM and out SE of ACK by a decent margin/normal snowstorm marging for Bos to PVD.

RGEM is way east, NAM way west...so lets see what the boss (euro) and GFS show.

All I'm saying Scott is the NAM has had some nasty problems beyond 36-42 with s/w energy on the front side of m/l energy. It's sucking in the same way each time or so it would appear. Again I'll eat those words if it's right but we're all here to say what we think, not what is a round about/sugar coated, cover all the bases deal.

EDIT: If the GFS came west and supported the NAM track I'd really give it credence but I'd also remember the GFS supported a more west track at all levels last time right up to the bitter end.

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Wow, sorry, I didn't know by referencing I95, that all the CT weenies would come out of the woodwork. YES, it's good for CT!

Fine, looks good south of the Pike! How's that?

Sitting two hundred yards east of the Maine Turnpike (I-95), chuckling at the geographic imby weenie chucking and watching the pendulum shift between a tick toward the benchmark versus a better banding solution for Casco Bay......(returning to multiyear lurker mode awaiting the next model frenzy......) :thumbsup:

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Another disaster for N. Maine.

All winter snow is being wasted on dilletantes who think snow's purpose is to be sculpted in to perfect snowbanks.

Suburban and city tyros who squeal delightedly when their snow cancels classes at the community college nearby.

Snow is lifes blood up here. Thousands of businesses are dependent upon it for their sustenance and it has not appeared at all.

An unprecedented economic disaster is unfolding up here in N. Maine. True hardship is upon us here because of this horrible pattern.

S. New England's snow is squandered there. It's a decorative nuisance. An embellishment for bus route weenies. Lack of snow for them is psychic pain only.

No snow for us is economic disaster. Your celebrations in S. New England are as thoughtless as your snow is pointless.

I write this as an ex-Cape Codder/Westonian.

Vim Toot

oooo-la-la

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Lol ... I think Sam and I are losing it.

And you 2 are not the only one...

We have had an ongoing screwjob since last Jan retro storm and to keep seeing storm after storm pound areas that typically, (Not including SNE) don't see a lot of snows and areas that normally do continue to watch storms miss (whiff) right is getting very frustrating...

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Another disaster for N. Maine.

All winter snow is being wasted on dilletantes who think snow's purpose is to be sculpted in to perfect snowbanks.

Suburban and city tyros who squeal delightedly when their snow cancels classes at the community college nearby.

Snow is lifes blood up here. Thousands of businesses are dependent upon it for their sustenance and it has not appeared at all.

An unprecedented economic disaster is unfolding up here in N. Maine. True hardship is upon us here because of this horrible pattern.

S. New England's snow is squandered there. It's a decorative nuisance. An embellishment for bus route weenies. Lack of snow for them is psychic pain only.

No snow for us is economic disaster. Your celebrations in S. New England are as thoughtless as your snow is pointless.

I write this as an ex-Cape Codder/Westonian.

Vim Toot

As frusting as the lack of snow up there might be, you don't have to come into the SNE thread....

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Another disaster for N. Maine.

All winter snow is being wasted on dilletantes who think snow's purpose is to be sculpted in to perfect snowbanks.

Suburban and city tyros who squeal delightedly when their snow cancels classes at the community college nearby.

Snow is lifes blood up here. Thousands of businesses are dependent upon it for their sustenance and it has not appeared at all.

An unprecedented economic disaster is unfolding up here in N. Maine. True hardship is upon us here because of this horrible pattern.

S. New England's snow is squandered there. It's a decorative nuisance. An embellishment for bus route weenies. Lack of snow for them is psychic pain only.

No snow for us is economic disaster. Your celebrations in S. New England are as thoughtless as your snow is pointless.

I write this as an ex-Cape Codder/Westonian.

Vim Toot

Yikes. rope, chair, chair tipped over?

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well that's COMPLETELY different from what you said. You said it looked bad for anyone NW of I-95. South of the pike and NW of 95 is a HUGE area, did you really think people weren't gonna jump on the craziness of that statement?

Yes, you're absolutely correct. I'm sorry. I typed in haste ;)

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I think it takes a track BM and out SE of ACK by a decent margin/normal snowstorm marging for Bos to PVD.

RGEM is way east, NAM way west...so lets see what the boss (euro) and GFS show.

All I'm saying Scott is the NAM has had some nasty problems beyond 36-42 with s/w energy on the front side of m/l energy. It's sucking in the same way each time or so it would appear. Again I'll eat those words if it's right but we're all here to say what we think, not what is a round about/sugar coated, cover all the bases deal.

I've thought since yesterday a track in between ACK and the BM, but I understand the outcome to whether or not it tracks closer to ACK means a lot to the folks further north. I agree the NAM can be unstable, that's why outside of 48hrs, I take the solution with a grain of salt. SREFs are usually the way to go beyond 48hrs imo...along with the globals. There are some things that argue for a track near ACK..maybe 20 miles se or so, but we'll see what the globals do. The NAM going se wasn't a shock, and models still may waver either way.

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I think all you're seeing is the members from the north, who have been in a pretty serious snow drought since the beginning of 2010, have their frustrations come to a head when once again areas to the south get pounded. Of course, this storm hasn't happened yet so we can't go spiking the football but the overall look says this is an SNE storm.

things are creeping back north storm by storm. eventually we will get ours. i bet it will be this year.

btw, we've had a big snow drought since janaury 2009....it sucks, i guess its payback for 07-08......but things are changing, stay confident that winter will find its way home.

SNE deserves a mega hit in this EC pattern, before it collpases.

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although I am not from Maine, I understand 100% what you mean since I live in northern Vermont most of the year and northern New England needs the snow. Snowmobiling is a HUGE economic driver for maine in the winter, I actually go to Rangeley and beyond several times a year but this year has been horrible. I was actually hoping this thing would come inland and turn into the Gulf of Maine and give Northern New England a shot for once. But this is what happens in this type of pattern and I don't see it breaking anytime soon. I agree with all of your comments below 100%. Well done.

Another disaster for N. Maine.

All winter snow is being wasted on dilletantes who think snow's purpose is to be sculpted in to perfect snowbanks.

Suburban and city tyros who squeal delightedly when their snow cancels classes at the community college nearby.

Snow is lifes blood up here. Thousands of businesses are dependent upon it for their sustenance and it has not appeared at all.

An unprecedented economic disaster is unfolding up here in N. Maine. True hardship is upon us here because of this horrible pattern.

S. New England's snow is squandered there. It's a decorative nuisance. An embellishment for bus route weenies. Lack of snow for them is psychic pain only.

No snow for us is economic disaster. Your celebrations in S. New England are as thoughtless as your snow is pointless.

I write this as an ex-Cape Codder/Westonian.

Vim Toot

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things are creeping back north storm by storm. eventually we will get ours. i bet it will be this year.

btw, we've had a big snow drought since janaury 2009....it sucks, i guess its payback for 07-08......but things are changing, stay confident that winter will find its way home.

If the euro ensembles are right...nne may cash in beyond next week.

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