metagraphica Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Some people have got to get over this qpf fetish. Don't go by qpf. How many times do i have to say this? +1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Who is? Yeah I don't think anyone is either ? I think it's one of the best, level headed discussions we've ever had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wow...just saw the 12z NAM. Clobbers the Boston area and most of New England for that matter...how can people complain about that run? NECN's Nelli C. has it turning to rain all the way past Route 128. What model is she seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You would do fine. 0.75" with nice banding and ratios. 12z NAM verbatim, but it is trending progressively worse. If I get 6" I won't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If this run were to verify, you would be good. Same deal with the SREFs. If people want 2' of snow, that's different. We still our 48 hrs out with some wiggle room. Scott, this run is good for everyone along and southeast of I95. NW of I95, it's exactly what we did not want to see. Yes, this is still a "good snowstorm" but it's trending the wrong way. And I know the argument, "well you didn't actually expect the 06z NAM to verifiy." Yeah, but that doesn't mean we still jump up and down with confetti and balloons when the 12z NAM shifts SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not sure why everyone is so thrilled with the 12z NAM. It's shown discontinuity, and a steady trend SE. This solution would probably be nice verbatim, but the "correction vector" is in the wrong direction Once again, Its going the wrong way, Our trend continues from last winter.... You don't see me doing cart wheels and chest bumps or high fives.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Scott, this run is good for everyone along and southeast of I95. NW of I95, it's exactly what we did not want to see. Yes, this is still a "good snowstorm" but it's trending the wrong way. And I know the argument, "well you didn't actually expect the 06z NAM to verifiy." Yeah, but that doesn't mean we still jump up and down with confetti and balloons when the 12z NAM shifts SE. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z NAM verbatim, but it is trending progressively worse. If I get 6" I won't complain. Well trends are a different story. I'm posting those maps for people with qpf fetishes. As all have learned in the last event, mid level RH is key for snow events. Despite the qpf, the NAM would bring a swath of s+ toward your area. That's all I'm trying to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What are you thinking for SW NH, NW MA. etc? General 4-8" with some lollipops? Right now I'd say 6-10" SW NH, 8-14" for NW MA. I'll post a new map after the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You don't see me doing cart wheels and chest bumps or high fives.... I just put on my bucket list "See Dryslot perform a cartwheel". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Scott, this run is good for everyone along and southeast of I95. NW of I95, it's exactly what we did not want to see. Yes, this is still a "good snowstorm" but it's trending the wrong way. And I know the argument, "well you didn't actually expect the 06z NAM to verifiy." Yeah, but that doesn't mean we still jump up and down with confetti and balloons when the 12z NAM shifts SE. It's too early to claim that mid level centers moving or jumping would screw your area. I don't know what you are/were expecting. Hopefully not over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Clown Map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Scott, this run is good for everyone along and southeast of I95. NW of I95, it's exactly what we did not want to see. Yes, this is still a "good snowstorm" but it's trending the wrong way. And I know the argument, "well you didn't actually expect the 06z NAM to verifiy." Yeah, but that doesn't mean we still jump up and down with confetti and balloons when the 12z NAM shifts SE. See below You don't see me doing cart wheels and chest bumps or high fives.... Most are talking IMBY. If you make any comment regarding a general trend they think you're trying to steal their snow. If you live NW way W or N i can see how this would not look so good, and if I was on the edge of this NAM runs heavier snows I could see how you'd have concerns. Saying this run wasn't as good isn't a misinterpretation of the model, it wasn't as good for some way out west and way up in the WNW. Changes if it gets some support at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Scott, this run is good for everyone along and southeast of I95. NW of I95, it's exactly what we did not want to see. Yes, this is still a "good snowstorm" but it's trending the wrong way. And I know the argument, "well you didn't actually expect the 06z NAM to verifiy." Yeah, but that doesn't mean we still jump up and down with confetti and balloons when the 12z NAM shifts SE. Couldnt' be more wrong. Drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's too early to claim that mid level centers moving or jumping would screw your area. I don't know what you are/were expecting. Hopefully not over a foot. But it's not too early to point out the NAM has been gradually revealing it had the same biases. Barring a ridiculous solution it'll be hard to go against the 12z GFS good or bad at least for me. And edit to say it's usually right around here where the NAM starts to get better, the 36 verification is leagues better than 48 and has been for quite some time. Clown Map! I'm almost certain you are going to be right in the max QPF/snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z NAM verbatim, but it is trending progressively worse. If I get 6" I won't complain. Your longitude will do better than mine in this set up. Still can hope for the low to get into the GOM, but not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 But it's not too early to point out the NAM has been gradually revealing it had the same biases. Barring a ridiculous solution it'll be hard to go against the 12z GFS good or bad at least for me. And edit to say it's usually right around here where the NAM starts to get better, the 36 verification is leagues better than 48 and has been for quite some time. I'm almost certain you are going to be right in the max QPF/snow again. Seasonal trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RGEM right on or just a tick off the BM to the east. I think IMO this is the preferred track give or take. Decent trough signature which may be something else to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Some people have got to get over this qpf fetish. Don't go by qpf. How many times do i have to say this? Exactly. Post Christmas Storm 2010 = perfect example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Because it's America's newest and favorite past time? As mostly an observer here, people ALWAYS b**ch and moan for EVERY snow storm, hurricane, t-storm, etc... Too much is never enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is the run wet dreams are made of I know you are excited but ending your posts with a preposition is unseemly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Scott, this run is good for everyone along and southeast of I95. NW of I95, it's exactly what we did not want to see. Yes, this is still a "good snowstorm" but it's trending the wrong way. dude, are you sniffing paint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I know you are excited but ending your posts with a preposition is unseemly. I don't know from where that came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 accu weather only giving spfd area five inches...that is nothing more than pedestrian... seems like a lot of talk about ri and east mass ct and long island..i am getting the sense that we are just gonna get a few or several inches here and watch everyone else get rocked..i do not know how much more of this i can take.. spfd is part of sne too!!! I feel ya bro. Don't take it personally. Someday we'll get a massive overrunning event funnelling into the valley while eastern MA gets mostly IP/ZR, and they'll congratulate us. SREFs have us in the 100% zone for > 4", and I'll put the over/under at 7.5" for you and 6.5" for me (under -125). Decent chance here to double our seasonal totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I just put on my bucket list "See Dryslot perform a cartwheel". Lets see, I have gone from 6-12", 4-8", 3-6" and looks like we are trending towards 2-4", This ENE track is very bothersome, Outside of the Nam being tucked in, All other models are tracking further away so when they make the exit east, We keep seeing less and less qpf, Any further and i will be watching Cirrus clouds to my SE, Ok, I am done bitching now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 can someone post where the Euro and Euro ensembles were in relation to the benchmark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Seasonal trend? RGEM wrecks you. Seasonal trend FTW. RGEM may be a few ticks too far east, but like I said after looking at the verification scores....NAM is I just went through this for days with the NAM and watched it run west of all the other models a couple of times. I really believe and I think it's backed up to date with HPC verifications that's it's a terrible model right now. I'll eat those words entirely if the GFS goes west GFS has done very well and IMO the UK was fine on that last system. It didn't handle the trough snows all that well but it kept the CCB as a miss most of the time and it was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 But it's not too early to point out the NAM has been gradually revealing it had the same biases. Barring a ridiculous solution it'll be hard to go against the 12z GFS good or bad at least for me. I'm almost certain you are going to be right in the max QPF/snow again. I think we all kind of thought the NAM track over PYM was probably a bit much. A track near ACK (which very well may happen) is great for all of sne. It's a general heavy snow event even up to srn NH and ME. Even a track near the BM, in general is good for them. We can't say who gets screwed with pinpoint accuracy when we are 48-60 hours out. All I'm saying is that the NAM would bring heavy snow for a time to snh and srn ME, qpf aside. Even a track near the BM would bring heavier snows up that way for a time..obviously not like areas further south. I understand it could tick se, but that's a different story. If people want to be pessimistic because of that, then by all means do. I'm just trying to point out, that qpf is not the end all/be all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's too early to claim that mid level centers moving or jumping would screw your area. I don't know what you are/were expecting. Hopefully not over a foot. Not claiming anything ... I'm interpreting what the NAM shows based on the last 24 hours of model runs. All my argument has been this time is that the 12z NAM is not what we wanted to see NW of I95. I hate the expectations argument. Yes, it helps to have lower expectations going in. But it doesn't matter how much someone expects to get; I think everyone agrees "more is better, less is worse" And NO, I'm not *expecting* 12+; see my previous forecast map, and I'll post a new one soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Couldnt' be more wrong. Drunk? Sorry, the NAM is also good for CT, N of I95 ... happy now that your BY got a plug? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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