mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 not thrilled for me up here near CON. still looks like a 6-10 incher. 12 if the ratios are good. Nice snowstorm. Fingers crossed a bit still. Might have to spend tues night with my cousin in Brookline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ??? yes the theme is somebody rips hard for 6-9 hours...there's no question about that. the question is whether the NAM is on to something by targeting most of CT...or will it set up more in SE CT up through BOS...which seems to be more in line with the Euro. Got it, you're talking max. How much of "coop" is that NAM really scoring? It's moved progressively southeast toward the globals since 00z. LOL every one is kind of dancing around the fact that your phase shift seems very much in play still. The main energy did shift east a bit this run even from the last one and it's the lobe of vorticity near the tip that keeps this in play for the NAM solution. It shifted enough this run vs the 0z last night that the back edge of precip in EPA and ENY in terms of the .5 got eroded east. That's been an error for a few weeks with the NAM on every system coming off the coast. When you look at the NCEP model verification page the NAM goes to shi* between 36-48 with the heights in advance of this system...too high in the plains. Same old same old. EC is a lot better, but so far take a look, for 48 hour verifications the GFS has schooled all other models in the plains. Doesn't mean it will continue, just saying. The GFS has done about as well as it could at 48. The NAM is the worst model we have running right now in terms of the ones used daily (not the nogaps). Maybe this is the time the NAM "gets it" at 48 but I highly doubt it. Will look forward to the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 To the mets out there, is there the potential, like the 12/26 storm to have banding setup to the effect that there will be, what you guys call "screw-zones", where areas within 10-15 miles of each other will have drastically different outcomes or is this a completely different animal? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM puts me on the 0.75 line, but I doubt that happens... it's been getting less with each run. Thinking I get in the 4-6 range. I guess there's always hope for a surprise, though. Once again, Its going the wrong way, Our trend continues from last winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Soundings look great out west, don't worry about qpf...Mike. The NAM still argues precip may become more "showery" for a couple of hours back here, but there is also some pretty good low level convergence going on, so that should help. In fact, it shows up on the 850-500 progs as a small area of enhanced lift. By 15z, the backside starts to come through. I'm only discussing what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How so? The 700mb closes off south of CT. mid level low makes a larger jump from PA / N MD to Cape Cod. So LI into CT gets smoked but as the mid level low jumps, the heaviest precip is pulled east, limiting the dump-duration over central MA. Extreme eastern MA still gets smoked too. The NAM's QPF even shows this signature. Might even verify more pronounced (IF this evolution verifies) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This run pivots a nice deformation band near GC. For the record, GC welcomes deformation bands of all shapes and sizes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 To the mets out there, is there the potential, like the 12/26 storm to have banding setup to the effect that there will be, what you guys call "screw-zones", where areas within 10-15 miles of each other will have drastically different outcomes or is this a completely different animal? Thanks! That happens in every storm, but it's too early to say where. We are still 48 hrs out and models may shuffle in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not sure why everyone is so thrilled with the 12z NAM. It's shown discontinuity, and a steady trend SE. This solution would probably be nice verbatim, but the "correction vector" is in the wrong direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If you had to rate which models handled the mid section of the country better at 48 hours vs progs...the UK and GFS did quite a bit better than the NAM and EC. Doesn't mean anything future isnt dictated by the past....I'm just pointing it out. Thinking it through though the two wettest models having performed the worst so far would raise a little flag for the time being. UK and EC verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Got it, you're talking max. Such pretty red, and blue colors. Might look better with my old school 3-D glasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not sure why everyone is so thrilled with the 12z NAM. It's shown discontinuity, and a steady trend SE. This solution would probably be nice verbatim, but the "correction vector" is in the wrong direction 100% agree. Maybe the rest of the 12z suite will snap everyone back into reality mode. It'll be right once, but it's not surprising that the models that busted in overamplifying things from the get-go are on the wet side of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 mid level low makes a larger jump from PA / N MD to Cape Cod. So LI into CT gets smoked but as the mid level low jumps, the heaviest precip is pulled east, limiting the dump-duration over central MA. Extreme eastern MA still gets smoked too. The NAM's QPF even shows this signature. Might even verify more pronounced (IF this evolution verifies) ahh right...I see what you are getting at. At least there isn't a real killing dry slot like 12/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Why are people b*tchin' and moaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not sure why everyone is so thrilled with the 12z NAM. It's shown discontinuity, and a steady trend SE. This solution would probably be nice verbatim, but the "correction vector" is in the wrong direction The thrill is gone up here ... Not even a pedestrian event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 100% agree. Maybe the rest of the 12z suite will snap everyone back into reality mode. It'll be right once, but it's not surprising that the models that busted in overamplifying things from the get-go are on the wet side of guidance. He's in Keene...most aren't. Why would someone like me or Bob or Scott or Will or most others not be happy with the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The thrill is gone up here ... Not even a pedestrian event. You would do fine. 0.75" with nice banding and ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 accu weather only giving spfd area five inches...that is nothing more than pedestrian... seems like a lot of talk about ri and east mass ct and long island..i am getting the sense that we are just gonna get a few or several inches here and watch everyone else get rocked..i do not know how much more of this i can take.. spfd is part of sne too!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Why are people b*tchin' and moaning. Because not all of us live in Mass, CT or RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Why are people b*tchin' and moaning. Insatiability. Most are victims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Because not all of us live in Mass, CT or RI If this run were to verify, you would be good. Same deal with the SREFs. If people want 2' of snow, that's different. We still our 48 hrs out with some wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Why are people b*tchin' and moaning. Because it's America's newest and favorite past time? As mostly an observer here, people ALWAYS b**ch and moan for EVERY snow storm, hurricane, t-storm, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 mid level low makes a larger jump from PA / N MD to Cape Cod. So LI into CT gets smoked but as the mid level low jumps, the heaviest precip is pulled east, limiting the dump-duration over central MA. Extreme eastern MA still gets smoked too. The NAM's QPF even shows this signature. Might even verify more pronounced (IF this evolution verifies) What are you thinking for SW NH, NW MA. etc? General 4-8" with some lollipops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 For the southern ME folks. You would be in dendrite heaven with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Why are people b*tchin' and moaning. Who is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Check out the 150kt jet. Incredible dynamics with this in the exit region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Who is? Some guy Kevin in Ct. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Some people have got to get over this qpf fetish. Don't go by qpf. How many times do i have to say this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 For the southern ME folks. You would be in dendrite heaven with this. Like I said...the precip may get more showery in nature for a time..even in my area, as the whole snow shield lifts nw, but low level processes may offset that. Southern NH and ME would be ripping for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 He's in Keene...most aren't. Why would someone like me or Bob or Scott or Will or most others not be happy with the NAM? Who said you shouldn't be? It's a nice 6-12 for most everyone with the option of 8-16 when we figure out where the max will be. I'm just pointing out the NAM is going to be too far NW I THINK. The track around the BM which is supported by the Euro and others sounds best to me and SE OF ACK. Again I may be wrong, but that's just my opinion based on everything that's gone on, verifications leading up, NAM trends itself etc. If I had to put money on a model it'd be on the GFS, with some also on the Euro. That's all I'm saying. GFS biases not excluded with QPF etc, probably being a little SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.