Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,703
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Climax
    Newest Member
    Climax
    Joined

Coastal Storm Potential - Jan 11-12 II


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Wow! The NAM absolutely rips SN+ for CT from about 6z-12z Wednesday morning! It dumps out 0.6+" of QPF between 9z and 12z for much of the state! Question is...can it score a coup here?

Isn't this the general theme of all the other models? I don't think there's much question that ECT/Will/Bob/Weathfella/Ray are going to get rocked. It's the fringers east and west that have some issues. I think this just reinforces the Euro is probably right on this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Congrats, GON!!!!

Well gotta look at thermal profiles at the coast...ratios may suffer a bit more down there and they likely wouldn't do any better than inland areas even with an extra 0.25" of QPF. But NAM nails pretty much all of CT, except for the extreme NW hills, with 1.25"+.

I don't know...it may still be too amped up...but here's to hoping things verify somewhere between that and the Euro.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey guys help me out here. I'm in Brockton. And during the 12/26 storm the 540 line was basically right over my head in the models and I never went to a mix or rain. But in all the models so far with this storm I haven't seen the 540 come anywhere past the canal. So I'm a little confused as to why there is all this talk of a rain/snow line moving so far inland?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Isn't this the general theme of all the other models? I don't think there's much question that ECT/Will/Bob/Weathfella/Ray are going to get rocked. It's the fringers east and west that have some issues. I think this just reinforces the Euro is probably right on this time.

???

yes the theme is somebody rips hard for 6-9 hours...there's no question about that. the question is whether the NAM is on to something by targeting most of CT...or will it set up more in SE CT up through BOS...which seems to be more in line with the Euro.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

???

yes the theme is somebody rips hard for 6-9 hours...there's no question about that. the question is whether the NAM is on to something by targeting most of CT...or will it set up more in SE CT up through BOS...which seems to be more in line with the Euro.

It is a huge difference for someone like me. I want the NAM nearly inappropriately, obviously. Instead of my 6-10 I'll get 15-18.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kev/Ginx/

You're ECT , Ryan's good too all of ct. I mean it's fine this is the NAM's version of the correct solution which will be similar to the euro.

It's colder, it's trending a little east each run but not much, just enough to get towards the consensus. I think we see it continue to make similar bumps SE in time right until it falls into consensus. My only slight concern would be to see the rest of the 12z suite because just an observation but it's still shuffling the s/w energy east a bit and it's always the last to the party with that stuff. It's still well west of even the 6z GFS depiction and IMO that's a red flag until we see the other guidance at 500mb come in closer to it.

EDIT so people dont get uptight...I think the NAM is probably too far NW still by a decent margin but in the grand scheme it doesn't matter for most of the readership here. It will probably effect ENY and parts of VT if it continues to shift...but the widespread 6-12 seems like a lock with refinements later for 8-16 (based on the NAM and pending the others not saying the NAM is out to lunch...that difference at 500 at 48 bugs me until I see the others have stopped shifting east)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How much of "coop" is that NAM really scoring? It's moved progressively southeast toward the globals since 00z.

well in CT...we're talking a difference of 1.25" QPF on the NAM versus 0.75" on the globals. Big difference in QPF.

Of course it is the NAM...even if there's no more shift in the track, it'll probably start cutting QPF by 0z run tonight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...