moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Two conflicting opinions? ETaunton? Yeah--Scot and Bob will have a cage match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i just hope this storm doesn't move more nw of the bench mark I do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thanks MPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Huge difference vs 0z at 36. It's not getting the s/w energy nearly as far north early. It's either a timing shift by a few hours or a sign that it's heading to a more consensus solution. Geez even looking at it (edit) it could just be getting together late...it's digging more in the se. This is a pretty big departure even from the 6z GFS...so the digging may be pushing the timing back a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Two conflicting opinions? ETaunton? Along the SNE coast was where my comment was applied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Best of luck to you James! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Huge difference vs 0z at 36. It's not getting the s/w energy nearly as far north early. It's either a timing shift by a few hours or a sign that it's heading to a more consensus solution. The shortwave itself is stronger...but there is more compression in the Canadian Maritimes...ie blocking...which should allow for an earlier transfer of energy to the coast and perhaps a bit more of a stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm not seeing "huge" changes anywhere through hr36. Just some subtle differences. Looks very close to 00z thus far, and similar to 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like it stays tucked and is going to be another bomb....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The shortwave itself is stronger...but there is more compression in the Canadian Maritimes...ie blocking...which should allow for an earlier transfer of energy to the coast and perhaps a bit more of a stall. Great explanation. Through the first 39 it's clearly east when you look at the moisture at 850/700 etc, more than the 6z and quite a bit more than the 0z. Whether it tucks in from here/is delayed who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 MOFO is tucked in like 6z ..Excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This looks like its going to be another weenie solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 it's going to go a bit SE from 06z. not surprising really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Loving how BOX is mentioning thunder in the AFD at this time... Wiz, get your video camera charged up. Sutton, Uxbridge area will be sweet if this tucks in a little NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think the 12Z NAM looks very good at 42 hours. It exploaded once that second peice of energy hit it, looks like. I really need the GFS to follow more suit in 12Z before I really put everything out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 MOFO is tucked in like 6z ..Excellent yup, should be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Slightly less digging upstream of the low --> slightly less ridging to the northeast of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowiscomingdown Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What did the Euro look like overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 God the 12z NAM is going to be beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 it's going to go a bit SE from 06z. not surprising really. Yep that's all this is, another adjustment. By 45 it's not so much that its east it's just a smidge less defined at 700mb at the same point in the last models...so it's a little delayed doing its thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think they are going to end up wrong with this but....heh, we'll see. Always room for lessons to be learned. As to HPC, they seem to be too "model agreement" reliant and not enough Meteorologically thinking on this ... THE NAM IS DEEPER TRACKING THE LOW THROUGH OH/PA AND SHIFTS THE CENTER OF THE LOW OFFSHORE SLOWER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH AGREE WITH EACH OTHER. THIS CONSENSUS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NEW UKMET/CANADIAN. THUS...RECOMMEND DISCOUNTING THE NAM AND USING EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This looks like its going to be another weenie solution. We're still two runs away from the inevitable downward tick in event total QPF on the NAM... but it's still amusing to see stuff like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM is a little further se at H5, but srfc low appears to be similar position but stronger. H5 seems more elongated, so hopefully that extends snow longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The run this looks closest to actually is yesterday's 12z NAM. Clear mid level low redevelopment taking place earlier compared to the 06z and 00z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Congrats CT/central Ma/RI/SE MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If you compare v the 0z you'll see the little nudge to the east of the deepest moisture as it's just slightly delayed. All that should do is maybe help keep the dryslot out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wow! The NAM absolutely rips SN+ for CT from about 6z-12z Wednesday morning! It dumps out 0.6+" of QPF between 9z and 12z for much of the state! Question is...can it score a coup here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Best of luck to you James! Thanks Sam. I will text you once I am out of basic training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Congrats CT/central Ma/RI/SE MA? You get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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