Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,703
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Climax
    Newest Member
    Climax
    Joined

Coastal Storm Potential - Jan 11-12 II


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Huge difference vs 0z at 36. It's not getting the s/w energy nearly as far north early. It's either a timing shift by a few hours or a sign that it's heading to a more consensus solution. Geez even looking at it (edit) it could just be getting together late...it's digging more in the se. This is a pretty big departure even from the 6z GFS...so the digging may be pushing the timing back a few hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Huge difference vs 0z at 36. It's not getting the s/w energy nearly as far north early. It's either a timing shift by a few hours or a sign that it's heading to a more consensus solution.

The shortwave itself is stronger...but there is more compression in the Canadian Maritimes...ie blocking...which should allow for an earlier transfer of energy to the coast and perhaps a bit more of a stall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The shortwave itself is stronger...but there is more compression in the Canadian Maritimes...ie blocking...which should allow for an earlier transfer of energy to the coast and perhaps a bit more of a stall.

Great explanation.

Through the first 39 it's clearly east when you look at the moisture at 850/700 etc, more than the 6z and quite a bit more than the 0z. Whether it tucks in from here/is delayed who knows.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think they are going to end up wrong with this but....heh, we'll see. Always room for lessons to be learned. As to HPC, they seem to be too "model agreement" reliant and not enough Meteorologically thinking on this ...

THE NAM IS DEEPER TRACKING THE LOW THROUGH OH/PA AND SHIFTS THE

CENTER OF THE LOW OFFSHORE SLOWER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH AGREE

WITH EACH OTHER. THIS CONSENSUS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NEW

UKMET/CANADIAN. THUS...RECOMMEND DISCOUNTING THE NAM AND USING

EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...