CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What we've seen a slight trend in since last night is the models trying to give the low a little hook to the left as 5h re-closes off further east and captures it....it also helps prolong the event for eastern NE. We'll have to see just how storng that capture, hook, and mini-stall is because that could end up being like a steroid injection for snow totals if it happens. Yeah, you can see it on some of the models. Notice also how the storm goes ne and then more east. It will hopefully keep the snow circulating in, instead of flying north of or latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM has higher heights out east vs even the old 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM looks a bit better 12z at init than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM has higher heights out east vs even the old 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is my first and likely final snowfall map of the winter, QPF amounts and distribution likely follow the 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not goign to correct it but I mean 0z last night...12z has higher heights v 0z. Not moving off the s/w as fast from Hotlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This solution will be more reasonble than the past 24hr worth of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Watch winds at HAT and Norfolk VA..If they go SE..this thing is gonna tuck west like NAM has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The thing is, it's adjusting the heights around north texas as associated with that s/w..not digging as much so who the heck knows. Still crappy consistency IMO compared to most years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Good luck CCsuperstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Watch winds at HAT and Norfolk VA..If they go SE..this thing is gonna tuck west like NAM has If winds go se in ORF, than Logan11 gets jackpot..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 absolutely dude...best of luck to you and thanks for enlisting to serve. i'm too much of a girlscout for that. Thanks Phil, you'll have to tell me about boot camp...I keep thinking about doing the USAF cause i can't seem to find a job...although, i've already done the USMC, so i've heard if i want to join any branch of the service, i wouldn't have to go through boot camp again...best of luck to you, and thanks for your committment! hope you aren't leaving so soon you miss this storm! I will miss this storm, I leave on Tuesday, I leave for BOS at 1230pm today. I wish you luck. Hope you held out for job of choice, Meteorology right? I was there 35 years ago the biggest mistake was settling for a Metalurgist job instead of the prior. 12 weeks will fly by, GL. Don't forget to check out the munching at night at the base of the dorms. Biggest cocaroaches I've ever seen! LOL. Thanks man, I will keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Good luck CCsuperstorm Thanks Scott, my first name is James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This solution will be more reasonble than the past 24hr worth of runs. I'm only out to 18. I can't tell which way it's going heights in the east argue better/NW, slightly less digging may say it's a draw or east....may mean little as sometimes is the case. What does stick out is that it's no longer front loading that next push of energy, the best vorticity is actually west by a couple of hundred miles. May be a little blip, NAM does this from time to time but that'd have consequences up the road...again no real idea in this situation what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If winds go se in ORF, than Logan11 gets jackpot..lol. Maybe..but this things gonna tuck in closer than some are thinking...and i still think r/s line gets fairly far NW relatively speaking..Like maybe GON /PYM for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thanks Scott, my first name is James. Good luck, dude. Plenty of snowstorms in your future, so don't be too disapointed about missing this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Maybe..but this things gonna tuck in closer than some are thinking...and i still think r/s line gets fairly far NW relatively speaking..Like maybe GON /PYM for a time Ok. That's inflammatory. I'm reporting you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Maybe..but this things gonna tuck in closer than some are thinking...and i still think r/s line gets fairly far NW relatively speaking..Like maybe GON /PYM for a time if it goes further in than the nam...there could be ugly mid-level issues way into SNE...you don't want that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I realize there is a lot of traffic on this thread but I don't have the time to sift through it all and respectfully pay homage to all those who have contributed - lol ... But sufficed it is to say ... would have to verify a blizzard to get to a 06z NAM result - not probably, not 'yeah but...', blizzard. The 06z NAM ...just eye-balling the synoptic charts would be 2.5" of total liquid equiv for the BDL-FIT-BOS triangulum - sick. Just sick. I would objectively say that is probably over-done, however ... the convective nature of this with super intense CSI appearance to the synoptics (and I am aware there are products that calculate the actual values; no access to those from here) makes me wonder if this just won't go onto being the most prolific event for central/southern New England this winter. On the fense with that characteristics, but I don't have an issue with lolly-pop 21" totals in the BDL-BOS-PVD triangulum either way. 980 mb low for a time just SE of BOS, which may be yet underdone. I am also noticing a slightly higher ambient PP in the area prior to cyclogenesis; 1024mb in the COL region of centreal and northern NE means that a 980mb low in Boston Harbor is better in the PGF than just that scalar value. That appears to be a minimum of 44kts applied to the 1kt/1mb rule argues for 50mph of sustained middle boundary layer flow to mix down with relative ease given the convective nature of this. I really don't see how we could verify that kind of 24" snow total like the 06z NAM is hammering (00z version notwithstanding..and the blend is a dandy), combined with that much wind and not have a blizzard, perhaps "severe" blizzard on hand. March 3-5 1960 was mentioned as possible analog - I am almost visualizing this as a Dec 2005 hybrid. I believe the NAM 00z, 06z and/or perhaps a blend is going to score better than the Global models. The finite interaction of intense low to mid-lvl thermogradients native to the coastal water for the Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod and how the Gulf Stream latent heat potential (notwithstanding sensible heat) interfaces with cP air in baroclinic axis, and how one would require superior convective initiation (to which the NAM is proven to be), are going to feed-back tremendously. As I mentioned yesterday and whole-heartedly still believe, the nexus of where/where the nose of that insane 110kt, 500mb firehose jet core intersects said gradient is going to cause some of the fastest intensification rates we've seen going back to Dec 9 2005. This ...forcing also collocation of the 700, 850 and sfc lvl lows ideally under q-vector forcing via extreme mass difluent mid lvl jet aloft, ...this will all drive frotogenesis number anomalously high. The NAM genetics are uniquely qualified for this type of ordeal. I am sure the 12z arrives deliberately now to make me look like an ass; I apologize if that happens but I don't think it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 if it goes further in than the nam...there could be ugly mid-level issues way into SNE...you don't want that. I know..if it goes that far west it would screw me...and alot of us...I'm not thinking that will happen..but won't be surprised if it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Maybe..but this things gonna tuck in closer than some are thinking...and i still think r/s line gets fairly far NW relatively speaking..Like maybe GON /PYM for a time I think it would rain further NW a lot like the 12/26 situation if it tracks anywhere near the NAM at 6z FWIW. I'd drop my snow totals a bunch if that ends up being the "deal" for down here. -- Weaker s/w for sure by 24, some energy being bled NW into another weak m/l center. It's knocked heights down somewhat vs even the 6z across the north but they're around the same from NYC south. It's a weaker s/w max at this point but it's also seemingly more invovled with the m/l then the earlier run. Who knows EDIT By 27 it's digging/stronger to the SE. Heights about the same here on south, maybe just a touch flatter. But she's digging pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ALB AFD: SO...ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A SNOWSTORM WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...BUT FOR NOW...UNTIL THE EVENT GETS CLOSER...THE BIGGEST IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHERE AROUND OR EAST OF THE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BORDER AND SOUTH OF VT...PERHAPS POU THROUGH LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT...MAYBE TO PSF...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN ANY DIRECTION ARE POSSIBLE AS THE EVENT GETS NEARER. Looccckkkk it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Good luck, dude. Plenty of snowstorms in your future, so don't be too disapointed about missing this one. Thanks, and again I will snowstorms again, just not sure for how long. Maybe next winter when I come home for a week to enjoy the holidays with my family, until then good luck everyone with the snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thanks Scott, my first name is James. Good luck, James! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like a slightly flatter solution than 06z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The NAM seems to be digging a little more. That may be a good thing down the road to help slow the system down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 As we approach 30 it's a stronger s/w than the two earlier models...heights etc...differences are subjective. One thing that DOES stick out in terms of structure is the little ear of vorticity (kind of was wrapping into IL and OH prior) that the earlier NAMS had to the NW is gone. It looks more like the other models in that regard. It's still trying to do it, juts a little later it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ALB AFD: SO...ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A SNOWSTORM WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...BUT FOR NOW...UNTIL THE EVENT GETS CLOSER...THE BIGGEST IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHERE AROUND OR EAST OF THE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BORDER AND SOUTH OF VT...PERHAPS POU THROUGH LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT...MAYBE TO PSF...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN ANY DIRECTION ARE POSSIBLE AS THE EVENT GETS NEARER. Looccckkkk it up That is their AFD from yesterday--never updated it. Maybe they saw no need to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The NAM seems to be digging a little more. That may be a good thing down the road to help slow the system down. Two conflicting opinions? ETaunton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i just hope this storm doesn't move more nw of the bench mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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