ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hence....it's a Miller B although the moisture comes from an A in origin right? Yeah which is why its kind of a hybrid, but def mainly Miller B....there's some leftover gulf moisture that the main shortwave can tap into when it explodes off the M.A. coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah...I think we will see the nam give alittle ground se but not to the extent of the further se solutions.... Maybe over ack or just a few ticks se of the island...something a little closer in than the 00z ec run Overall...I think for a first go the box map is good. Given some of the extreme forcing at work...probably a spot 15 to 17 in there someplace? Will be a fun 36 hrs coming up! I'm starting to think the area just SW of BOS (Foxboro/Norton/Sharon) will be the jackpot area for QPF/Snowfall. Guessing we'll be looking at 12-15:1 ratios given how cold the upper levels are. With 1"+ for QPF a 14-16"+ swath seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I like that the Euro Ensembles are farthest west West is best, Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Its like the current SE system weakens as it moves NE but then gets re-energized by the bigger shortwave coming out of the OH valley. And let's watch WV and hope more and more moisture lingers near HAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 And let's watch WV and hope more and more moisture lingers near HAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 In addition to a more westerly solution, I'm crossing fingers for a more northerly track before it jets off to the east. That's what is really bending the NNE guys over a tree stump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Its like the current SE system weakens as it moves NE but then gets re-energized by the bigger shortwave coming out of the OH valley. As ALY said yesterday (and today b/c they haven't updated their AFD): GULF COAST SYSTEM QUITE DYNAMIC NOW...BUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DEAMPLIFICATION AND WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERIC DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY FOOTPRINT WILL STILL EXIST...LIKE A FUSE THAT JUST NEEDS TO BE RE-LIT. THE LOW LEVEL FEATURE IS PREDICTED TO EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE GULF STREAM AND THERMAL GRADIENT BAROCLINICITY LIGHTING THE FUSE. THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY AND DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT SOME ENSUING CONVECTIVE FIREWORKS AND THE SNOW BOMBS BURSTING IN AIR AS THE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm starting to think the area just SW of BOS (Foxboro/Norton/Sharon) will be the jackpot area for QPF/Snowfall. Guessing we'll be looking at 12-15:1 ratios given how cold the upper levels are. With 1"+ for QPF a 14-16"+ swath seems likely. yeah that's possible. if we see something like the nam or even say 60 to 70% of the nam...i'd probably throw another max out by will. he might have pure powder but extremely good snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 In addition to a more westerly solution, I'm crossing fingers for a more northerly track before it jets off to the east. That's what is really bending the NNE guys over a tree stump. Good thing you have Mike to make those GYX discussions meaningful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 .... THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY AND DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT SOME ENSUING CONVECTIVE FIREWORKS AND THE SNOW BOMBS BURSTING IN AIR ... I got quite a laugh over that ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah which is why its kind of a hybrid, but def mainly Miller B....there's some leftover gulf moisture that the main shortwave can tap into when it explodes off the M.A. coast. A good example of how Philly can get in on Miller B action. Used to frustrate me when I lived there, watching that thing develop off DE and then spin up into SNE. Lol now I look south for my angst. But with all those dynamics and moisture sitting there that allows Philly to get a good storm from a Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 BOS is at 25.8 for the season. Can we touch 40 by Thursday? Outside chance. I am barely an hour north of BOS, and would need 31" to hit 40 on Thurs. Nice. Hoping we converge on a track like that today. Give me a CC canal runner please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 As ALY said yesterday (and today b/c they haven't updated their AFD): GULF COAST SYSTEM QUITE DYNAMIC NOW...BUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DEAMPLIFICATION AND WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERIC DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY FOOTPRINT WILL STILL EXIST...LIKE A FUSE THAT JUST NEEDS TO BE RE-LIT. THE LOW LEVEL FEATURE IS PREDICTED TO EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE GULF STREAM AND THERMAL GRADIENT BAROCLINICITY LIGHTING THE FUSE. THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY AND DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT SOME ENSUING CONVECTIVE FIREWORKS AND THE SNOW BOMBS BURSTING IN AIR AS THE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. That is a major weenie AFD writer - love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ILM is 26F with light snow. That's, incredible. 26F..LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yeah that's possible. if we see something like the nam or even say 60 to 70% of the nam...i'd probably throw another max out by will. he might have pure powder but extremely good snow growth Someone near the coast might get totally pasted.....even where you are. You might have to watch out for a 33-34F wet snowbomb where 7 or 8" of snow brings a lot of power outage problems...esp with the wind on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 yeah that's possible. if we see something like the nam or even say 60 to 70% of the nam...i'd probably throw another max out by will. he might have pure powder but extremely good snow growth There's always that second maxim with the systems, and I agree. He may be even greater than a 15:1. I'd peg his area over to the North Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Someone near the coast might get totally pasted.....even where you are. You might have to watch out for a 33-34F wet snowbomb where 7 or 8" of snow brings a lot of power outage problems...esp with the wind on the Cape. I agree. The Marshfield/ Scituate area will be a fun one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Someone near the coast might get totally pasted.....even where you are. You might have to watch out for a 33-34F wet snowbomb where 7 or 8" of snow brings a lot of power outage problems...esp with the wind on the Cape. yeah agree. my current thinking is r/s line makes it to very near MBY for a while before collapsing seaward. some of that stuff will be hard to determine until game time. the calendar is a bit more favorable now then say 15 to 30 days ago. ray should see his CF fetish realized...maybe in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If something close to the 00z or 06z NAM is realized, decent gravity wave potential across southeast MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ILM is 26F with light snow. That's, incredible. 26F..LOL. Not bad for down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm starting to think the area just SW of BOS (Foxboro/Norton/Sharon) will be the jackpot area for QPF/Snowfall. Guessing we'll be looking at 12-15:1 ratios given how cold the upper levels are. With 1"+ for QPF a 14-16"+ swath seems likely. I think pending the 12z a widespread 6-12 with room to move upward after this run from the canal through the most of SNE. I think a jackpot will exist from Weatafella down through you given the current track guidance...OES enhancement is sort of classic. Keeping it very simple for right now, there's a potential for more to the SE and less to the NW (QPF...rain se if it gets closer, less qpf nw if it went a little more east and vice versa) but ratios may help them. I favor a track near the BM give or take about 15 miles. At 6z the NAM jumped east at 500 but everyone expected that as it was too wound up at 0z. The GFS jumped a smidge too but it also held more vorticity back from the nose. If that's legit it could get interesting. RGEM was kind of blah. FWIW its been this run/timeframe where we got a final better handle on how the s/w would eject off jersey the last two times. Anyway 12z UA etc were sort of interesting, be fun to watch this play out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not bad for down there. What a fookin' pain to forecast for. I didn't time the flip to ice in ATL early enough when I did it yesterday morning..but at least I brought it in earlier than some had. I did say HSV will get heavy snow. LOL, they had TSSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 wow...the 06z NAM BUFKIT has -45 ubar/sec intersecting the snow crystal growth layer in ORH around 13z Wednesday. Also, Hyannis gets pressure falls of 12 mb/3 hr when as the low approaches and goes overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nice bulge in the isobars just east of BOS in some of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Let's bring this sfc low into SE MA. Enough messing around with these fringe runners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 wow...the 06z NAM BUFKIT has -45 ubar/sec intersecting the snow crystal growth layer in ORH around 13z Wednesday. Also, Hyannis gets pressure falls of 12 mb/3 hr when as the low approaches and goes overhead. yeah its a crazy snow bomb. thats why i saying if we realize something on the nam side of the spectrum...will's area is hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Sick.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 wow...the 06z NAM BUFKIT has -45 ubar/sec intersecting the snow crystal growth layer in ORH around 13z Wednesday. Also, Hyannis gets pressure falls of 12 mb/3 hr when as the low approaches and goes overhead. What's interesting is the 6z NAM 6h forecast doesn't look that bad, looks better than the GFS forecast for the same time specifically with the handling of the m/l center out west but it's close. Once again though no big differences or something that stands out as a wow But more I think of it, it's outside of 36 hours it gets bad each time...so it may not mean a lot yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Let's bring this sfc low into SE MA. Enough messing around with these fringe runners I could not possibly agree more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 0z and 6z gfs bring .5 ish to CON and NAM brings around 1".. I'm tossing the GYX forecast for now. If I click a few mi south of my location in the BOX cwa there's a Winter Storm Watch, which I'm applying to myself Ditto. I usually use BOX. GYX usually is way off. However they were pretty decent with that last inverted trough. Got about 1/4 inch with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.