DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm off today and tomorrow luckily. I was busy yesterday with the se. 00z ec ensembles are still the furthest west...no surprise. 06z gfs ensembles are may e 40 miles or so east of the euro ensembles. Canadian ensembles right over the BM. Where are the EC ensembles? ACK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 BOS is at 25.8 for the season. Can we touch 40 by Thursday? Outside chance. That's pretty much exactly what I have. 25.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is it just me,or does it seem that the storm is moving faster than expected precip is already at virginia border. I have start time late tomorrow night,but by looking how progressive this is I would say much earlier tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Where are the EC ensembles? ACK? Between ACK and BM I would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Between ACK and BM I would say. Nice. Hoping we converge on a track like that today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm off today and tomorrow luckily. I was busy yesterday with the se. 00z ec ensembles are still the furthest west...no surprise. 06z gfs ensembles are may e 40 miles or so east of the euro ensembles. Canadian ensembles right over the BM. Thx.....I better hope for an EC Ens outcome with a side of NAM. ENjoy the time off!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How much work will people be accomplishing between 9:00a.m. and 1:30? I think Dave's giving pop-quizzes all day and sitting back with his i-phone. Egineering Design Challenge all day - heavy heavy computer time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wintry weather out there today??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I like that the Euro Ensembles are farthest west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What are these tracks derived from? Ensemble means or Ops? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What are these tracks derived from? Ensemble means or Ops? Thanks. Those are the 06z OP runs....green is NAM and red is GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Those are the 06z OP runs....green is NAM and red is GFS. Might be able to just split the difference there...perhaps 60/40 nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Those are the 06z OP runs....green is NAM and red is GFS. Thanks. I'll take the GFS about 40 miles to the SE please. Don't think it will happen, though, just from climo. I think we get the big winds(unless it goes right overhead)and a big mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Might be able to just split the difference there...perhaps 60/40 nam? Yeah that's the way I've been leaning...somewhere in the middle. But its certainly possible we could see something on either extreme end of the envelopes. I'm leaning mesoscale models right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Might be able to just split the difference there...perhaps 60/40 nam? I think that seems fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what did the ensembles show for the gfs and ec? read the thread quickly and didn't see them GYX is interesting....discussion doesn't sound enthusiastic, mention 4-8 along the coast....I'm about to jump reading that....then the point and click ha me in heavy accumulation for Wed. Good morning morning crew (Jerry, Mike, Scott etc.) I see Will has joined this morning and Bob too. Sorry for whomever I am missing. 0z and 6z gfs bring .5 ish to CON and NAM brings around 1".. I'm tossing the GYX forecast for now. If I click a few mi south of my location in the BOX cwa there's a Winter Storm Watch, which I'm applying to myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah that's the way I've been leaning...somewhere in the middle. But its certainly possible we could see something on either extreme end of the envelopes. I'm leaning mesoscale models right now though. Given that the ECMWF now has effective 15km grid resolution...shouldn't we expect it to resolve similar features to the WRF etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 classic coastal system so gfs is back to its s and e bias. euro on the money, nam a little west. looks to me like if it bottoms out a bit faster then it tucks and slows a bit during that process...that to me is the question. good sign that euro ens are west. we should probably watch the actually development of the low and see if it is looking more intense than progged. interesting that the gfs has the initial storm form much further off the coast than the nam. but there tracks are similar for a bit at that point. if it forms further in like the nam suggests then we are in biz up here. seems that the thinking of some of the mets is that it might intensify more than shown...will i think said this, tip yesterday, jb this morning, not sure about scott. in nyc thread looking at the 6z gfs some of them though h5 was trending stronger and should do a better job pulling that surf low west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Lookin mighty fine. Widespread 10"+ looks safe this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 classic coastal system so gfs is back to its s and e bias. euro on the money, nam a little west. looks to me like if it bottoms out a bit faster then it tucks and slows a bit during that process...that to me is the question. good sign that euro ens are west. we should probably watch the actually development of the low and see if it is looking more intense than progged. interesting that the gfs has the initial storm form much further off the coast than the nam. but there tracks are similar for a bit at that point. if it forms further in like the nam suggests then we are in biz up here. seems that the thinking of some of the mets is that it might intensify more than shown...will i think said this, tip yesterday, jb this morning, not sure about scott. in nyc thread looking at the 6z gfs some of them though h5 was trending stronger and should do a better job pulling that surf low west The low for Wed won't be on the coast until tomorrow. The current system in the SE is not what we're getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 classic coastal system so gfs is back to its s and e bias. euro on the money, nam a little west. looks to me like if it bottoms out a bit faster then it tucks and slows a bit during that process...that to me is the question. good sign that euro ens are west. we should probably watch the actually development of the low and see if it is looking more intense than progged. interesting that the gfs has the initial storm form much further off the coast than the nam. but there tracks are similar for a bit at that point. if it forms further in like the nam suggests then we are in biz up here. seems that the thinking of some of the mets is that it might intensify more than shown...will i think said this, tip yesterday, jb this morning, not sure about scott. in nyc thread looking at the 6z gfs some of them though h5 was trending stronger and should do a better job pulling that surf low west I could see it tucking a little more west of euro. I think it may track close to ACK, but I could see the euro track happening as well. H5 is strong is may help to tuck the low west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Given that the ECMWF now has effective 15km grid resolution...shouldn't we expect it to resolve similar features to the WRF etc.? Yeah it should resolve them at initialization, but I think its the model dynamics where they differ.The mesoscale models are non-hydrostatic which will let them solve vertical motion without the hydrostatic approximation. This might be a case where that is helpful vs harmful which it can often be when it has those convective feedback issues way offshore in an otherwise normal looking synoptic pattern...but this system looks to have a lot of convection right in its main circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 0z and 6z gfs bring .5 ish to CON and NAM brings around 1".. I'm tossing the GYX forecast for now. If I click a few mi south of my location in the BOX cwa there's a Winter Storm Watch, which I'm applying to myself I reallylike the way you think. interesting to see how you do vs me this time. I am on 127 at the Webster Salisbury line. Elevation tends to help a bit up here and I usually do better than CON but you may do better in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah that's the way I've been leaning...somewhere in the middle. But its certainly possible we could see something on either extreme end of the envelopes. I'm leaning mesoscale models right now though. Yeah...I think we will see the nam give alittle ground se but not to the extent of the further se solutions.... Maybe over ack or just a few ticks se of the island...something a little closer in than the 00z ec run Overall...I think for a first go the box map is good. Given some of the extreme forcing at work...probably a spot 15 to 17 in there someplace? Will be a fun 36 hrs coming up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The low for Wed won't be on the coast until tomorrow. The current system in the SE is not what we're getting. That low will redevelop, but it more or less will be the same system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 BOS is at 25.8 for the season. Can we touch 40 by Thursday? Outside chance. That's pretty much exactly what I have. 25.4". Same here. 25" for the season. Could exceed my avg. seasonal total as well as my seasonal call with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That low will redevelop, but it more or less will be the same system. Its like the current SE system weakens as it moves NE but then gets re-energized by the bigger shortwave coming out of the OH valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The low for Wed won't be on the coast until tomorrow. The current system in the SE is not what we're getting. Yeah I know we can't start looking at that yet....but of course the dynamics over the south are part of what gets tapped though right? 12z should be interesting: - does the nam hold serve? - how do srefs trend? - does gfs stay great at h5 and tug low back to coast? - what signal do we get from the rest of the global suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Its like the current SE system weakens as it moves NE but then gets re-energized by the bigger shortwave coming out of the OH valley. Hence....it's a Miller B although the moisture comes from an A in origin right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah I know we can't start looking at that yet....but of course the dynamics over the south are part of what gets tapped though right? 12z should be interesting: - does the nam hold serve? - how do srefs trend? - does gfs stay great at h5 and tug low back to coast? - what signal do we get from the rest of the global suite? This one's coming. There may be minor changes but I think we've known now for 24 hours approximately where this is going. SREFs have been rock solid in a big snow dump region wide for several runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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