Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 03z SREF mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I wonder if the rain /snow line come farther NW than some folks are thinking currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I wonder if the rain /snow line come farther NW than some folks are thinking currently Quiet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I wonder if the rain /snow line come farther NW than some folks are thinking currently Its going to be difficult to get it very far NW in this storm....you basically have to get the 850s above 0C...except maybe the Cape. Even 12/9/05 with the early Dec SSTs only got yhe rain/snow line back to 128 with a track over Buzzards Bay. Factor in Jan SSTs, and a track likely not as far NW, then we have a R/S line that will probably have trouble getting NW of the Cape....assuming it's even an issue at all down there. Maybe it flirts with BOS if we see some really amped up trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 03z SREF mean. Congrats, Bob! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I wonder if the rain /snow line come farther NW than some folks are thinking currently Last night one of the models had the low over Narr. Bay...did the GFS move it east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I wonder if the rain /snow line come farther NW than some folks are thinking currently I don't see what would cause it to do so. But whatever that might be would be would give me more snow, I think, so make it so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 East is least wind wise i was thinking the same thing with strong systems i better shut up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Last night one of the models had the low over Narr. Bay...did the GFS move it east? 6Z NAM has it over outer cape. 0z gfs outside the bm 6z gfs roughly over the bm Euro over the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I wonder if the rain /snow line come farther NW than some folks are thinking currently I think this will be one of those Classic NE storms that once underway the totals are bumped up several times. Once the meso-scale features show themselves it will have to happen. Great looking system for all really with more waiting in the wings. I like that BOX has wasted no time hoisting the flag. In the end I think this will track closer to CC than the BM, very nice, very nice indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Its going to be difficult to get it very far NW in this storm....you basically have to get the 850s above 0C...except maybe the Cape. Even 12/9/05 with the early Dec SSTs only got yhe rain/snow line back to 128 with a track over Buzzards Bay. Factor in Jan SSTs, and a track likely not as far NW, then we have a R/S line that will probably have trouble getting NW of the Cape....assuming it's even an issue at all down there. Maybe it flirts with BOS if we see some really amped up trends. I'm just thinking back to the blizzard a few weeks ago and how far NW the sleet got when noone even had it in their forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How much work will people be accomplishing between 9:00a.m. and 1:30? I think Dave's giving pop-quizzes all day and sitting back with his i-phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Me likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well I slept about 90 minutes. Glad to see the 06z GFS ensembles juiced up the qpf again after looking slightly skimpier at 00z. BOX amounts are pretty bullish. So they are definitely on board for a pretty major storm. I like how the ensembles try to tuck the low west after hr 60....well at least have the isobars trying to bow west. Probably means one heck of a western comma head for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm just thinking back to the blizzard a few weeks ago and how far NW the sleet got when noone even had it in their forecasts I don't think most people that reported sleet got sleet. Most acknowledge it was snow grains. The actual r/s line should have made it much further north based on mslp but didn't. No way Boston should have stayed all snow but N winds draining down for most of the event allowed it. This event has the hp in a similar position. Hopefully the midlevels and H5 produce widespread big totals this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 JB (0600) is in complete agreement. His points: * SLP runs HSE to ACK * Once north of M-D line upper dynamics take over * (Some) models not yet "understanding" the UL deepening & hence further wwd track * Euro ensembles are impressive * High ratios Ut Oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I like how the ensembles try to tuck the low west after hr 60....well at least have the isobars trying to bow west. Probably means one heck of a western comma head for someone. I think this is one thing we know is going to happen somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I like how the ensembles try to tuck the low west after hr 60....well at least have the isobars trying to bow west. Probably means one heck of a western comma head for someone. Scot--how are the EC ensembles in relation to the op and other models? Are the airlines keeping you busy today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what did the ensembles show for the gfs and ec? read the thread quickly and didn't see them GYX is interesting....discussion doesn't sound enthusiastic, mention 4-8 along the coast....I'm about to jump reading that....then the point and click ha me in heavy accumulation for Wed. Good morning morning crew (Jerry, Mike, Scott etc.) I see Will has joined this morning and Bob too. Sorry for whomever I am missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 15/9, -sn and flurries have continued here pretty much unabated since Sat. another heavy dusting. Cold windy day for those of us outside. Have fun ladies and Gents. This should be a great 48hrs, Will, try to get some sleep.lol Think SNOW!! Big Winter incoming, BIG BIG WINTER. Still any doubters?CoT FTW!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I wonder if the rain /snow line come farther NW than some folks are thinking currently I'm guessing no further than the CC Canal. I've seen this set-up too many times in my life to think otherwise. Ocean temps screw us but buoy 44020(mid Nantucket Sound)gets 2x more than KACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what did the ensembles show for the gfs and ec? read the thread quickly and didn't see them GYX is interesting....discussion doesn't sound enthusiastic, mention 4-8 along the coast....I'm about to jump reading that....then the point and click ha me in heavy accumulation for Wed. Good morning morning crew (Jerry, Mike, Scott etc.) I see Will has joined this morning and Bob too. Sorry for whomever I am missing. Dude, I'm hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think this is one thing we know is going to happen somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Interesting to see the NAM/SREF not waver and the GFS ens mean back to a region-wide bomb. First call IMBY: 6-10'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 BOS is at 25.8 for the season. Can we touch 40 by Thursday? Outside chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Dude, I'm hurt. I KNOW!!! I feel so bad. I wrote that and went up stairs to bring my partner his tea in bed and I actually thought of you! Good morning you beast of the east slopes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what did the ensembles show for the gfs and ec? read the thread quickly and didn't see them GYX is interesting....discussion doesn't sound enthusiastic, mention 4-8 along the coast....I'm about to jump reading that....then the point and click ha me in heavy accumulation for Wed. Good morning morning crew (Jerry, Mike, Scott etc.) I see Will has joined this morning and Bob too. Sorry for whomever I am missing. Ensembles look great. 6Z NAM moved a bit east but it is REALLY juiced. You should do quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So is this the kind of system where we should see a sick wall of waa snows break out from s to n or se to nw over the area before the banding sets up? seems like the last system was so patchy with the banding...do u guys think this is the kind of storm that is gonna just crush out the dry air in place at the beginning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The wind last night has successfully blown bare some spots from the weekend snows. Wonder what we'll see come late Wed/Thur re: blown areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Scot--how are the EC ensembles in relation to the op and other models? Are the airlines keeping you busy today? I'm off today and tomorrow luckily. I was busy yesterday with the se. 00z ec ensembles are still the furthest west...no surprise. 06z gfs ensembles are may e 40 miles or so east of the euro ensembles. Canadian ensembles right over the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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