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Coastal Storm Potential - Jan 11-12 II


Baroclinic Zone

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I wonder if the rain /snow line come farther NW than some folks are thinking currently

Its going to be difficult to get it very far NW in this storm....you basically have to get the 850s above 0C...except maybe the Cape. Even 12/9/05 with the early Dec SSTs only got yhe rain/snow line back to 128 with a track over Buzzards Bay.

Factor in Jan SSTs, and a track likely not as far NW, then we have a R/S line that will probably have trouble getting NW of the Cape....assuming it's even an issue at all down there. Maybe it flirts with BOS if we see some really amped up trends.

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I wonder if the rain /snow line come farther NW than some folks are thinking currently

I think this will be one of those Classic NE storms that once underway the totals are bumped up several times. Once the meso-scale features show themselves it will have to happen. Great looking system for all really with more waiting in the wings. I like that BOX has wasted no time hoisting the flag. In the end I think this will track closer to CC than the BM, very nice, very nice indeed.

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Its going to be difficult to get it very far NW in this storm....you basically have to get the 850s above 0C...except maybe the Cape. Even 12/9/05 with the early Dec SSTs only got yhe rain/snow line back to 128 with a track over Buzzards Bay.

Factor in Jan SSTs, and a track likely not as far NW, then we have a R/S line that will probably have trouble getting NW of the Cape....assuming it's even an issue at all down there. Maybe it flirts with BOS if we see some really amped up trends.

I'm just thinking back to the blizzard a few weeks ago and how far NW the sleet got when noone even had it in their forecasts

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Well I slept about 90 minutes.

Glad to see the 06z GFS ensembles juiced up the qpf again after looking slightly skimpier at 00z.

BOX amounts are pretty bullish. So they are definitely on board for a pretty major storm.

I like how the ensembles try to tuck the low west after hr 60....well at least have the isobars trying to bow west. Probably means one heck of a western comma head for someone.

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I'm just thinking back to the blizzard a few weeks ago and how far NW the sleet got when noone even had it in their forecasts

I don't think most people that reported sleet got sleet. Most acknowledge it was snow grains. The actual r/s line should have made it much further north based on mslp but didn't. No way Boston should have stayed all snow but N winds draining down for most of the event allowed it. This event has the hp in a similar position. Hopefully the midlevels and H5 produce widespread big totals this time.

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I like how the ensembles try to tuck the low west after hr 60....well at least have the isobars trying to bow west. Probably means one heck of a western comma head for someone.

I think this is one thing we know is going to happen somewhere.

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what did the ensembles show for the gfs and ec? read the thread quickly and didn't see them

GYX is interesting....discussion doesn't sound enthusiastic, mention 4-8 along the coast....I'm about to jump reading that....then the point and click ha me in heavy accumulation for Wed.

Good morning morning crew (Jerry, Mike, Scott etc.) I see Will has joined this morning and Bob too. Sorry for whomever I am missing.

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15/9, -sn and flurries have continued here pretty much unabated since Sat. another heavy dusting. Cold windy day for those of us outside. Have fun ladies and Gents. This should be a great 48hrs, Will, try to get some sleep.lol Think SNOW!! Big Winter incoming, BIG BIG WINTER. Still any doubters?CoT FTW!!!!

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I wonder if the rain /snow line come farther NW than some folks are thinking currently

I'm guessing no further than the CC Canal. I've seen this set-up too many times in my life to think otherwise. Ocean temps screw us but buoy 44020(mid Nantucket Sound)gets 2x more than KACK.

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what did the ensembles show for the gfs and ec? read the thread quickly and didn't see them

GYX is interesting....discussion doesn't sound enthusiastic, mention 4-8 along the coast....I'm about to jump reading that....then the point and click ha me in heavy accumulation for Wed.

Good morning morning crew (Jerry, Mike, Scott etc.) I see Will has joined this morning and Bob too. Sorry for whomever I am missing.

Dude, I'm hurt.

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what did the ensembles show for the gfs and ec? read the thread quickly and didn't see them

GYX is interesting....discussion doesn't sound enthusiastic, mention 4-8 along the coast....I'm about to jump reading that....then the point and click ha me in heavy accumulation for Wed.

Good morning morning crew (Jerry, Mike, Scott etc.) I see Will has joined this morning and Bob too. Sorry for whomever I am missing.

Ensembles look great. 6Z NAM moved a bit east but it is REALLY juiced. You should do quite well.

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So is this the kind of system where we should see a sick wall of waa snows break out from s to n or se to nw over the area before the banding sets up?

seems like the last system was so patchy with the banding...do u guys think this is the kind of storm that is gonna just crush out the dry air in place at the beginning?

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Scot--how are the EC ensembles in relation to the op and other models?

Are the airlines keeping you busy today?

I'm off today and tomorrow luckily. I was busy yesterday with the se.

00z ec ensembles are still the furthest west...no surprise. 06z gfs ensembles are may e 40 miles or so east of the euro ensembles. Canadian ensembles right over the BM.

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