DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 My guess before the 00z suite is the 21z SREFs tone down a bit and the further east solutions like the Canadian and Ukie come NW. That'd be AWT. Gun to head, which way do the NAM/GFS/Euro go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Those things don't interest me...I like no nonsense during my snow events...just light wind, good dendrites, and a CCB. I agree ... though they do interest me, I love the nice garden variety 18" thumping This system however, is anything but garden variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 My guess before the 00z suite is the 21z SREFs tone down a bit and the further east solutions like the Canadian and Ukie come NW. Agreed 100% I bet the GFS and NAM pretty much hold serve from 18z. 15z SREFs had some incredibly amped up solutions!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 before we start going nuts on the 18z please folks remember iITS THE 18Z RUN!!! does not include actual upper air and the 18z runs, particularly the GFS, have the worst verification of ANY run of ANY other time....I mean no offense to anyone but once you take a Numerical prediction class you understand not to take on run literally..look for 3-5 run trends and use the means and spreads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That'd be AWT. Gun to head, which way do the NAM/GFS/Euro go? I think I mentioned before, I favor a track closer to ACK...maybe a hair SE. Basically right between the BM and the more amped up solutions. The 5h seems to want to support something like that...though obviously there's enough time for that to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Agreed 100% I bet the GFS and NAM pretty much hold serve from 18z. 15z SREFs had some incredibly amped up solutions!!! One of the early signs will be the handling of the older 500 up near the Dakotas. The 18z's that went east displaced it west a bit. The 18z RGEM and NAM are in an identical spot in SD east of Ellsworth AFB at 48h. I think we want that east too, it was a pretty big shift that started early in the run. It's all tied in together of course but something easy to follow. The further east the better I think overall. The RGEM spilt the difference maintaining a better structure into the TN/OH Valley which would be important but it too rotated that feature west from earlier runs in the Dakotas. I think everyone needs to understand it's one run, and we're merely discussing one run. It was't a trend, it was one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Agreed 100% I bet the GFS and NAM pretty much hold serve from 18z. 15z SREFs had some incredibly amped up solutions!!! meh, I don't think the NAM holds. There'll be notable changes. Not say it brings the low way NW again, but the 18z run WAS a little funky. I think we'll see some tastes of the 12z NAM and 18z GFS come together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well guys have fun, here. I probably won't post again until I am in Mississippi in two months. I hope the rest of the winter treats everyone well. Now that I am leaving on Tuesday, but really I won't have internet access tomorrow afternoon on, I just want to say that Cape COd, MA might see a three foot snowstorm this winter. Heads up Phil. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think I mentioned before, I favor a track closer to ACK...maybe a hair SE. Basically right between the BM and the more amped up solutions. The 5h seems to want to support something like that...though obviously there's enough time for that to change. Will, earlier (and a couple of times) Tip was mentioning this event having an analog of 12/9/05... did that come up on the CIPS site, or are there other similarities? It seems weaker, but I really don;t know much about how analogs are derived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 SFEFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well guys have fun, here. I probably won't post again until I am in Mississippi in two months. I hope the rest of the winter treats everyone well. Now that I am leaving on Tuesday, but really I won't have internet access tomorrow afternoon on, I just want to say that Cape COd, MA might see a three foot snowstorm this winter. Heads up Phil. Lol Good luck! My bro is in the Air Force (reserves, now). Enjoy TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well guys have fun, here. I probably won't post again until I am in Mississippi in two months. I hope the rest of the winter treats everyone well. Now that I am leaving on Tuesday, but really I won't have internet access tomorrow afternoon on, I just want to say that Cape COd, MA might see a three foot snowstorm this winter. Heads up Phil. Lol good luck, bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 21z SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 nyc thread. sref way deeper and amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well guys have fun, here. I probably won't post again until I am in Mississippi in two months. I hope the rest of the winter treats everyone well. Now that I am leaving on Tuesday, but really I won't have internet access tomorrow afternoon on, I just want to say that Cape COd, MA might see a three foot snowstorm this winter. Heads up Phil. Lol Hey good luck...stay safe...and thanks for your service in protection and support of all of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Good freaking start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well guys have fun, here. I probably won't post again until I am in Mississippi in two months. I hope the rest of the winter treats everyone well. Now that I am leaving on Tuesday, but really I won't have internet access tomorrow afternoon on, I just want to say that Cape COd, MA might see a three foot snowstorm this winter. Heads up Phil. Lol Be Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wow SREFS are damned exciting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Best of luck James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 meh, I don't think the NAM holds. There'll be notable changes. Not say it brings the low way NW again, but the 18z run WAS a little funky. I think we'll see some tastes of the 12z NAM and 18z GFS come together It's interesting that right from the get go it's handling the vorticity up near the CAN border differently while having heights with the easterly moving s/w more in line with the 12z. Sure I know there will be "changes" each run but it seems we cannot get any stability at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrokenASOS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Good freaking start. 21Z SREFs great hit for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 21z SREFs implied taint? to 128? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 21Z SREFs great hit for NNE. All of NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 No sign at all on the 0z that it wants to hold the old m/l west like it was doing at 18z. It's actually a bit east of even the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 implied taint? to 128? I think not......why? Track over ACK with a northerly sfc flow is damned nice. Mid levels will be plenty cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 All of NE 1"+ ct, ri, ema.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Will, earlier (and a couple of times) Tip was mentioning this event having an analog of 12/9/05... did that come up on the CIPS site, or are there other similarities? It seems weaker, but I really don;t know much about how analogs are derived. I doubt it would show up. There are distinct differences. The half wavelength of this storm is like 5 times that of Dec 05 lol. Tip I think was comparing the potential convective potency over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 21Z SREFs great hit for NNE. Yes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 No I think there's people that take things out of context. I could say what I think which is that the UKMET is largely way east, the GEFS/NAM just trended significantly east and the 18z NOGAPs trended east too even though it wasn't a hit to begin with but I'm for some reason afraid of offending people over weather. Why dont you leave the comedy to Seinfeld and we stick to the weather during the storm? I also wonder why there is no talk of the potential for an inverted trough again this time. LOL, No, we full time residents of the SNE thread are a jovial bunch and enjoy playful banter throughout the year. This time period is BEFORE the storm not during. Also, if you're seeing trends that lead you to believe this storm will fizzle or be OTS make the call. After accusing Phil of making bold predictions only after the event has passed I'm sure you wouldn't want to be guilty of the same thing. I have read an immense amount of analysis from Pro mets today and I don't think anyone is talking about this storm sh iting the bed. Sam has expressed some concern about a 'screw zone' with a center leap but the consensus seems to be this is a fairly straight forward show. Again, as I have said before I actually am interested in your thoughts and as a true proponent of free speech I would never seek to silence your or anyone's thoughts. However, I am not afraid to point out that you seem to have a penchant for looking for all the ways a system can fail. Who knows, perhaps you will be the one that nails this as a failure but in the face of overwhelming opinions to the contrary I'll stick with the idea that this will indeed be a major system. Please, keep ferreting out possible problems/pitfalls with this and any other systems that come our way. That's what an open forum is for , the free expression of thoughts and ideas. Just don't be surprised when people choose to comment on your comments. It's part of the game. This isn't a matter of life and death, keep it in perspective. Have fun Scott and Think Snow !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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