40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 At 60h, the Cape might dryslot, thats about it. I feel good that I'm on the nw tip of the sweet spot....not a bad place to be. Gun-weenie: General 8-14" w a lollie to 15-16" in interior se MA. 1' here...same as blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is what I was looking at...700mb RH profile doesn't exactly look stunning...major decrease too between 60-66 HR's. Well that is the back end.....we are now on the SW side of H7, at that point....so yea, S- on that plot......but the damage has been done. We are pummeled before H7 gets to our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well that is the back end.....we are now on the SW side of H7, at that point....so yea, S- on that plot......but the damage has been done. We are pummeled before H7 gets to our latitude. You're totally right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 My reactions lately are to just look at something than can screw me over and then run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You're totally right You never want to be on the sw side of the H7 low, which is why we would be screwed if it were just closing off at that point, but it isn't.....all you are seeing is the end of a great event. That is what happens to DC alot in Miller Bs.....it closes off and goes bonkers once past their lat, but this isn't the case with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Congrats cpickles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You never want to be on the sw side of the H7 low, which is why we would be screwed if it were just closing off at that point, but it isn't.....all you are seeing is the end of a great event. That is what happens to DC alot in Miller Bs.....it closes off and goes bonkers once past their lat, but this isn't the case with us. This is what I was overlooking. Agreed about it closing off, luckily it just starts to close off maybe somewhere around the Cape...hard to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Congrats cpickles? 18" here and 20" for him.....we need a clown smiley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How about 8 inches in 3 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18" here and 20" for him.....we need a clown smiley. Yeah thats about is good as its going to look, so I posted it...but def not a good map to post for expectations. The NAM did two major things perfectly for the larger totals to occur...it bombed the mid-level centers in the perfect spot to maximize the CCB right as its going over E SNE...seoncdly, it actually captured the sfc low as 5h transfered where its closed off just near CC...so it prolongs the storm into an 18-20 hour event vs a 9-12 hour blitz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is what I was overlooking. Agreed about it closing off, luckily it just starts to close off maybe somewhere around the Cape...hard to see. What I mean is that if it hadn't closed off SOUTH of our latitude and waited until it was just ne of us, then we wouldn't be able to benefit from it, but it closes off s of our latitude so we are fine. EVENTUALLY it will move N of our lat and the snow will stop.....sure.....we will all die someday, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Congrats..well..everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah thats about is good as its going to look, so I posted it...but def not a good map to post for expectations. The NAM did two major things perfectly for the larger totals to occur...it bombed the mid-level centers in the perfect spot to maximize the CCB right as its going over E SNE...seoncdly, it actually captured the sfc low as 5h transfered where its closed off just near CC...so it prolongs the storm into an 18-20 hour event vs a 9-12 hour blitz. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Toss it. Yeah its unlikely to work exactly that perfectly...event #1 has a decent chance to occur (the maximizing of the CCB as it goes over SNE) but event #2 (the extra 8-10 hour stall) does not. But who know, maybe we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Congrats..well..everybody CF over my fanny ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not sure if it was posted earlier but some of the dates listed in the top 15 analogs were some pretty sweet events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah its unlikely to work exactly that perfectly...event #1 has a decent chance to occur (the maximizing of the CCB as it goes over SNE) but event #2 (the extra 8-10 hour stall) does not. But who know, maybe we get lucky. Yea, until the EURO depicts that, it's a pipe dream....expections in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm actually contemplating going to sleep before the 06z GFS comes in...that can only be a buzzkill after that NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not sure if it was posted earlier but some of the dates listed in the top 15 analogs were some pretty sweet events. Nice to know....I wasn't aware of the fact that this could end up an ok event, here, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What I mean is that if it hadn't closed off SOUTH of our latitude and waited until it was just ne of us, then we wouldn't be able to benefit from it, but it closes off s of our latitude so we are fine. EVENTUALLY it will move N of our lat and the snow will stop.....sure.....we will all die someday, too. Yeah I understand now, this thing is basically getting together at the PERFECT time for us to benefit the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm actually contemplating going to sleep before the 06z GFS comes in...that can only be a buzzkill after that NAM run. Go to sleep with visions of NAM schlongs prancing through Winter Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Go to sleep with visions of NAM schlongs prancing through Winter Hill. Yeah its not worth the extra 45 minutes to see a fairly insignificant run in the scheme of things. Get recharged for 12z. Its going to be a busy next 60h.I'm out...hopefully 12z is good to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah its not worth the extra 45 minutes to see a fairly insignificant run in the scheme of things. Get recharged for 12z. Its going to be a busy next 60h.I'm out...hopefully 12z is good to us. C-YA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nice to know....I wasn't aware of the fact that this could end up an ok event, here, Too tied to understand the tone of this Sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Congrats..well..everybody Eh, maybe SNE....certainly not everybody else including where it SHOULD be snowing (interior/mountains) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Eh, maybe SNE....certainly not everybody else including where it SHOULD be snowing (interior/mountains) There's always the 372 hr 00z GFS for us NNEers to pin our hopes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 6z GFS slightly west of 00z by like 20 or 30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 6z GFS QPF ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm glad I went to bed after the 00z NAM. Anything following that would have been a disappointing comparison--and they were (save for the 06NAM). My early guess is 6-10" in western areas and trending towards as much as a doubling of that as you head East/Southeast to a jackpot zone (pending ratios). The good news is that it seems all of SNE and much of CNE will get some decent snow. Seems a relatively low risk of mixing for coastal areas (read: jackpot along 495) I wish we could get this to slow down a bit. 17.5/10 EDIT: Just saw they pulled the trigger on the watch. I didn't expect that until the afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 BOX wasting no time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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